I watched Rays vs. Red Sox tonight, and basically came back reassured with many beliefs about these teams that I already had were true.
First off, that the Rays have the best pitching in the division. They have two starters (3 once Price is promoted) which are better than anyone the Red Sox have in their rotation. Kazmir was on tonight, and brought his A game to a big series. This isn't a knock on the Red Sox, because they have great starting pitching, but the Rays are just a little bit better.
Secondly, Grant Balfour's not a fluke. I remember watching him a few years ago in Rochester as a Red Wing. I was incredibly impressed, thought he could be a big league closer right then (or at least Joe Nathan's setup man). It took a few more years than I thought, but he's made it. He's got a closer's mentality -- this guy not only wants to get you out, he wants to make you look silly doing it.
Thirdly, the Red Sox miss Manny Ramirez. Jason Bay's great. Solid defense, great bat with plus power, can steal a base or two. But he doesn't have swagger. This Red Sox team may be more talented than the last two which have won titles, but they don't have that swagger. Papelbon has some swagger, but a team can't feed off a closers' swagger until the 9th, which won't matter if they've already lost. Manny had swagger, Manny had class (don't laugh, I'm serious), Manny had talent. Manny wanted to hit the ball over the fence, punch you in the mouth, and then laugh in your face afterwards. The Red Sox don't have guys with swagger anymore. They miss Manny, they miss Kevin Millar, they miss Orlando Cabrera, they miss Johnny Damon. With the skills of the Rays, they won't be able to win the division on sheer talent alone. Epstein doesn't make many mistakes, but he sure screwed up with the Manny debacle.
Next, Saito looked flat. It was a good idea to invest in him, because he was just one year removed from an amazing season, but I think age is catching up with him.
The Rays aren't perfect either though. With Fernando Perez and BJ Upton both out, they look real weak in the outfield, offensively and defensively. Luckily they get BJ back next week, but they aren't looking smart for letting Rocco Baldelli go to, ironically, the Red Sox. Also, can Joe Maddon needs to make Balfour his closer. I know the committee thing is working, but I think if he can boost that guy's ego a little more Balfour can take his competetive edge to the next level.
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