Thoughts on Tigers-Twins and a Playoff Preview

So with the Tigers losing today, my pick for the World Series is kaput. In a 5 or 7 game series, in which you face Edwin Jackson, Rick Porcello, and Justin Verlander 5 out of 5, or 6 out of 7 games, you aren't going to win more of those games than the Tigers. Not happening. However, the Twins only had to beat Porcello once, and they did that.

Moreso, Jim Leyland made the mistake of removing Porcello, who had just retired nine straight before giving up the Jason Kubel solo shot, and then a walk to the next batter. He removed him for Zach Minor. Seriously? Porcello's pitching very well, they have the lead, and he takes him out for a mediocre bullpen arm. Who promptly blew it. Porcello didn't lose, Leyland managed them out of the game. He managed scared, which is probably a result of how they struggled to finish out the season.

Rick Porcello's essentially beat the Twins with just his fastball, and the Twins can hit. Heads up to the American League, he's going to be one to fear next year.

Alas, the Twins are now in, and will face the Yankees in the ALDS. While the Tigers would have pushed this series to 5 games, probably winning the series. The Yankees will win this in 3. They hit better, they pitch better (both out of the pen and in the rotation) and sadly play better defense, which isn't saying much because the Yanks don't play great defense anyways. Yankees in 3.

In the other AL series, I think the Red Sox are coming away in 5 in probably the most evenly matched series in the playoffs. In Game 1, it's a tossup as Lackey's been great since the All-Star break (3.05 ERA) and Lester's a surefire ace. Game 2 pits Jered Weaver vs. modern playoff-legend Jose Beckett in another tossup. In game 3, the Angels Kazmir, who's been on fire since he's arrived in L.A. should take out youngster and eternal top-prospect Clay Buchholz. If it gets to Game 4, the Sox will beat Joe Saunders with whomever they decide to throw at him. Figure Game 5 is Lackey vs. Lester or Beckett in another tossup, a coin flip is more likely to predict the winner than any logical, analytical solution. Red Sox steal Game 1 or Game 2, and win Game 5 to take the series in 5.

In the NL, the Cards are going to throttle the Dodgers. The Dodgers are deep in starting pitching, but in five games, it's better to have 2 aces than a group of 4 solid starters. In a seven game series, this would be a trickier choice, but St. Louis isn't going to lose a 5 game series when 4 of those games are started by Carpenter and Wainwright. And Joe Torre is proving what an idiot he is by starting Ronnie Belliard (who's not completely healthy either) over Orlando Hudson, and tagging Vincente Padilla for the Game 3 start over Chad Billingsley. Giving Belliard some extra starts down the stretch when he's got the hot hand is understandable. But it's the playoffs, one's best off playing is superior players, and Hudson is better on both sides of the ball. And I don't care if Billingsley's struggled a little in the 2nd half, he's been getting his shit together, and Padilla's a notorious choke artist. Cards in 3 games, 4 at worst.

Dodgers-Rockies provides the other particularly interesting playoff division series, but one which has just dramatically changed with Jorge De La Rosa getting hurt. Game 1 should go to the Phillies, although if Ubaldo Jimenez is on his game, I could be dead wrong. Game 2 will go to the Rockies, as I expect Aaron Cook to be the slightly above-average starter he is, while I expect the Rockies to pound Cole Hamels. Rockies will come back with a Game 3 victory, as Hammel's been a much better pitcher in Colorado, and Joe Blanton's never pitched in Coors, and isn't a very good road pitcher anyways. This is where the series becomes unpredictable, because I like the Phillies if they start Pedro Martinez Game 4, and push Lee to Game 5, but odds are they pitch Lee here, and Hamels has to throw Game 5 and Ubaldo proves who's the best young gun in the NL. Since I don't know what Charlie Manuel is going to do, (mostly because he's a moron), I'm picking the Rockies to win in 5 since Brad Lidge will probably blow a game they were supposed to win.

The ALCS and NLCS are much more difficult to predict, because there's no guess as to how much rest everyone has, what the starting pitcher matchups are, etc. But the Rockies should take out the Cardinals in a longer series because while the Cardinals should take 3 of 4 pitched by Carp and Wainwright, the Rockies should win the other 3 against Joel Pineiro and Smoltz/Lohse. Rockies in 7.

In the ALCS, the Red Sox are going to prove why this Yankees team isn't built for playoff baseball. They are going to simply out-pitch the Yankees in every facet of the game. They match up better in ever slot, one through four, in the playoff rotation, and they have many more arms to use out of the bullpen.

This is probably the most fun matchup in the playoffs. A young Rockies team is going to have much, much more energy than the BoSox. This is a team that plays as hard as anyone, and that might simply where out a Red Sox team that has been here before and won't have the same adrenaline. On the other hand, outside Ubaldo, the entire Red Sox starting pitching is better than the Rockies,and the Sox have a much better bullpen. On the other hand, the Rockies can possibly outhit and probably outfield the Red Sox. Look for the Rockies to push this to Game 7, but run out of gas. Sox in 7.