So in effort to prove my baseball genius, I'm going to try and make 40 non-obvious predictions that the rest of you will think me a fool for. Hopefully I get enough right not to lose all credibility as a very-little read blogger.
1.) Brandon Wood hits 18 home runs before the All-Star break, and make the world's best manager look foolish for never playing him regularly.
2.) Pedro Alvarez will make it to the majors by the All-Star break, and will remind everyone how bad Andy LaRoche is.
3.) Phillip Hughes will pitch very well through July, but will start to tire out because he's used to relieving and all the long outings will wear on his arm.
4.) Tommy Hanson's ERA will be over 4.
5.) A.J. Burnett pitches fewer innings than Ben Sheets.
6.) Ben Sheets will not be traded, but the A's will take the draft pick compensation instead.
7.) Ryan Ludwick hits lower than .250
8.) Of all those "top prospects" the Phillies traded, less than half will give a respectable performance at the MLB level this year. I think Michael Taylor and Lou Marson will do well, Drabek, Donald, Knapp, D'Arnoud, and Carrasco will struggle.
9.) Jorge Cantu is traded to an NL West team.
10.) Zero no-hitters will be thrown this year.
11.) One one-hitter will be thrown. It will be by a Met, he will give up the no-no in the bottom of the 9th, with a homerun, to lose the game 1-0. The pitcher will be Oliver Perez. The hitter will be some light hitting second baseman or a backup catcher. This is the reality of being a Mets fan right now, that this scenario seems entirely possible.
12.) The Nationals don't take Bryce Harper with the number one overall pick in the draft.
13.) The Cubs' starting OF of Byrd, Soriano, Fukodome hit less than 50 HR's combined.
14.) The Diamondbacks' OF of Jackson, Young, Upton hit over 75 HR's combined.
15.) Jason Heyward will be sent back to the minors by the end of May.
16.) Scott Feldman wins 13 or more games
17.) Jorge De La Rosa regresses to his normal "great stuff but is too inconsistent to be good all year long."
18.) The current idea of floating divisions will be killed by the owners eventually, but a new idea with more free flow between divisions that in no way has geographical bearing will become popular and gain steam.
19.) The NL will win the All-Star game.
20.) The Rockies win 105 games, win the pennant, but lose the World Series to the Rays.
21.) The Dodgers will be the NL's biggest bust, winning fewer than 85 games.
22.) Tigers' power arm Daniel Schlereth will say something to prove that his father's obnoxious talking runs in the family.
23.) Curt Schilling will once again be the most common member of the Red Sox in the media, even in retirement.
24.) Bert Blyleven, Barry Larkin, and Roberto Alomar will be elected to the Hall of Fame, but no first-timers will be eligible (look out for Jeff Bagwell in a few years, but otherwise it's a weak group).
25.) The Texas Rangers will take the title of "surprisingly good pitching" from the Rockies this year.
Monday, March 1, 2010
Saturday, February 27, 2010
Thoughts on End of Season Awards
End of the season awards are always the toughest to predict. Individual performance varies from year to year, and there's often a correlation between the awards and the success of the team. So most of these will be shots in the dark.
AL Cy Young - Felix Hernandez - this guy is ridiculous, his performance last year would win a Cy Young nearly any other year this decade. But Zack Greinke went all late 90's Pedro Martinez on the AL. And Felix still almost won it anyhow. Chances on repeating 2009's success? I personally like Felix's better.
AL MVP - Evan Longoria - This is usually the toughest to predict. Hell, Pedroia won one when the BoSox won the division. I want to go with a player from the team with best record, which I think will be the Red Sox, but the candidate for that team with a legitimate shot I think is Kevin Youkilis, and my gut feels that isn't right. I don't see a candidate on the other two division winners, but my projected wildcard winner has Evan Longoria, who's a true superstar who shouldn't have trouble gathering votes.
NL Cy Young - Johan Santana - The Mets are going to be a media hit for their comeback this year, and Johan Santana is going to put up a Cy Young season and he's going to win the award he should have won two years ago.
NL MVP - David Wright - The same line of thinking. Wright's going to have a comeback year and also win an award he should have won a few years back. If the Mets or Wright falter, look for Pujols to win again.
AL Rookie of the Year - Brett Wallace - I don't like doubting Billy Beane when he clearly likes a player.
NL Rookie of the Year - Stephen Strasburg - He'll be up by June 1st and he's going to show everyone what the hype is all about.
AL Cy Young - Felix Hernandez - this guy is ridiculous, his performance last year would win a Cy Young nearly any other year this decade. But Zack Greinke went all late 90's Pedro Martinez on the AL. And Felix still almost won it anyhow. Chances on repeating 2009's success? I personally like Felix's better.
AL MVP - Evan Longoria - This is usually the toughest to predict. Hell, Pedroia won one when the BoSox won the division. I want to go with a player from the team with best record, which I think will be the Red Sox, but the candidate for that team with a legitimate shot I think is Kevin Youkilis, and my gut feels that isn't right. I don't see a candidate on the other two division winners, but my projected wildcard winner has Evan Longoria, who's a true superstar who shouldn't have trouble gathering votes.
NL Cy Young - Johan Santana - The Mets are going to be a media hit for their comeback this year, and Johan Santana is going to put up a Cy Young season and he's going to win the award he should have won two years ago.
NL MVP - David Wright - The same line of thinking. Wright's going to have a comeback year and also win an award he should have won a few years back. If the Mets or Wright falter, look for Pujols to win again.
AL Rookie of the Year - Brett Wallace - I don't like doubting Billy Beane when he clearly likes a player.
NL Rookie of the Year - Stephen Strasburg - He'll be up by June 1st and he's going to show everyone what the hype is all about.
Monday, February 22, 2010
Thoughts on a Season Preview - Standings
As the offseason seems to be winding down, spring training is starting, and rosters are settling, it's time to set up my pre-season predictions. Most importantly, it's time to predict end of the season standings, perhaps the most volatile of all predictions. Too many factors can swing and radically alter the end results (for example, Yankee Stadium being a launching pad, the Mets filling an entire hospital with injured players, Cubs falling apart for no reason [although that's nothing new]).
AL East
1.) Red Sox - Improved by a few wins by adding some defense to offset the loss of Jason Bay's offense.
2.) Rays - A lot of stats are pointing at the Rays being unlucky in the W-L column last year.
3.) Yankees - Everything went right last year, it's always harder to get the 2nd title in two years.
4.) Orioles - Young core getting better, young pitching finally will reach the Bigs and contribute.
5.) Blue Jays - Not much talent here, although a re-newed commitment to scouting could pay dividends in 5 years.
I was adamant last year when I said the Rays had the most talent in the MLB. And on paper, not much has changed, except instead of Kazmir, they have Wade Davis, David Price has a full year of starting experience in the MLB, and Desmond Jennings and Jeremy Hellickson should be able to contribute this year as well. Oh, and they added a closer, they could easily take first place in this division. The Red Sox are a first class organization that's great at filling holes, they upgraded or provided a suitable replacement everywhere on the diamond this offseason. It's so hard to repeat, and this Yankees team isn't as deep offensively as it was last year, and it also keeps getting older. Realistically, one could make good arguments for putting the Sox, Rays, and Yanks in any order of #1-3, although I think the Rays and Bosox will both definitely finish in first or second.
AL Central
1.) Tigers - Almost won the division last year until blowing it in the last week. But it's hard to say whether this team actually got any better from last year.
2.) Twins - How did this team win the division last year? How?
3.) White Sox - A full year out of Gordon Beckham will help this team out, but it's really time for this team to rebuild drastically.
4.) Indians - Would finish 4th or 5th in any AL division.
5.) Royals - Zack Greinke can't pitch every game, and Billy Butler can't take every AB.
This is the worst division in the MLB, bar none. None of these teams would finish any better than 2nd in any other MLB division. Tigers have the most upside with Verlander/Porcello/Scherzer/Bonderman/Galaragga in the rotation, and adding both Johnny Damon and Austin Jackson to play in the OF (although Austin Jackson might not be ready). This division is full of teams needing to rebuilt/actually build. Dayton Moore, Royals GM, reminds me of Isiah Thomas. He knows what he wants to do, and he has good intentions. But his execution of his vision is horrendous, and sucking the Royals dry of talent.
AL West
1.) Athletics - Lots of pitching here. Watch out. I frankly don't care that they hit abysmally.
2.) Angels - Mike Sciosia will squeeze 85 wins out of this team. Playing Brandon Wood regularly would help.
3.) Mariners- Got real, real lucky last year. But they didn't really improve their roster over last year.
4.) Rangers- Elvis Andrus has to hit a little more this year. Neftali Perez needs to show he can start. But might not get out of this division's basement, even if they have a winning record.
This is the year's biggest crapshoot. I'd hate to bet against the league's best manager who still has a decent level of talent. The Athletics are sneaky good. Mariners had a great offseason, but lost enough talent that the talent they added is mostly negated. Rangers still need more pitching. Badly.
Wildcard: Rays
NL East
1.) Mets - Probably a lot of bias here, but this is essentially an even better team than the one SI picked to win the World Series last year.
2.) Phillies - Sustained the level of talent from last year. But everything went right for them in 2009. It would really help if Cole Hamels' new breaking pitch is any good.
3.) Braves - Will pitch themselves into third, but can't hit at all.
4.) Marlins - This team can pitch a little, and can hit a little, but neither extremely well.
5.) Nationals - Better than last year, but still the worst team in this division.
This division will come down to the Mets and Phillies again. I just think it's more likely that the Mets don't lose $100 million in payroll than for Raul Ibanez, Jayson Werth, J.A. Happ, and others to play that much over their head again.
NL Central
1.) Cardinals - Pujols/Holliday/Rasmus in one batting order scares me. Scares me enough that I forget about nearly 80% of the roster.
2.) Reds - So much young talent.
3.) Brewers - Some elite talent carrying a lot of otherwise average players.
4.) Cubs - Similar to their Chi-city counterparts, they also need to rebuild, bad.
5.) Astros - Nothing much to say, probably the most uninteresting team in the majors.
6.) Pirates - I've seen Garrett Jones play, he's a AAAA player.
This is a two team race. Reds should hit better than the Cards, but might not have enough pitching to match Dave Duncan's brilliance. Brewers might surprise, but unlikely to take the division.
NL West
1.) Rockies - A full season of non-Clint Hurdle management (although Jim Tracy doesn't exactly set the world on fire).
2.) D-Backs - I'm expecting a bigger year out of Drew, another huge year from Reynolds, and a healthy Webb makes the front of the rotation potentially scary with Haren/Webb/Edwin Jackson.
3.)Dodgers - Torre once again proved he's the most overrated manager in the majors as he pulled his best SP from the rotation at the end of last year.
4.) Giants - an average team, with the best 1-2 SP punch in the NL
5.) Padres - I don't know if I can even name 5 players on this team anymore.
The Rockies are the NL's best team, it's a shame Huston Street and Brad Lidge switched bodies in the playoffs last year. The divorce of the McCourt's is killing the Dodgers, who all of a sudden can't hand out such stupid contracts as Andruw Jone's $18 million a year debacle. The Diamondbacks could contend for the wildcard easily, and if they get anything from Stephen Drew, Chris Young, and Ian Kennedy they could take the division
Wildcard: Reds - The 2nd place finisher in the NL East will just miss first, but as in recent years past, the division will beat up on itself too much to allow its 2nd place finisher to make the playoffs.
AL East
1.) Red Sox - Improved by a few wins by adding some defense to offset the loss of Jason Bay's offense.
2.) Rays - A lot of stats are pointing at the Rays being unlucky in the W-L column last year.
3.) Yankees - Everything went right last year, it's always harder to get the 2nd title in two years.
4.) Orioles - Young core getting better, young pitching finally will reach the Bigs and contribute.
5.) Blue Jays - Not much talent here, although a re-newed commitment to scouting could pay dividends in 5 years.
I was adamant last year when I said the Rays had the most talent in the MLB. And on paper, not much has changed, except instead of Kazmir, they have Wade Davis, David Price has a full year of starting experience in the MLB, and Desmond Jennings and Jeremy Hellickson should be able to contribute this year as well. Oh, and they added a closer, they could easily take first place in this division. The Red Sox are a first class organization that's great at filling holes, they upgraded or provided a suitable replacement everywhere on the diamond this offseason. It's so hard to repeat, and this Yankees team isn't as deep offensively as it was last year, and it also keeps getting older. Realistically, one could make good arguments for putting the Sox, Rays, and Yanks in any order of #1-3, although I think the Rays and Bosox will both definitely finish in first or second.
AL Central
1.) Tigers - Almost won the division last year until blowing it in the last week. But it's hard to say whether this team actually got any better from last year.
2.) Twins - How did this team win the division last year? How?
3.) White Sox - A full year out of Gordon Beckham will help this team out, but it's really time for this team to rebuild drastically.
4.) Indians - Would finish 4th or 5th in any AL division.
5.) Royals - Zack Greinke can't pitch every game, and Billy Butler can't take every AB.
This is the worst division in the MLB, bar none. None of these teams would finish any better than 2nd in any other MLB division. Tigers have the most upside with Verlander/Porcello/Scherzer/Bonderman/Galaragga in the rotation, and adding both Johnny Damon and Austin Jackson to play in the OF (although Austin Jackson might not be ready). This division is full of teams needing to rebuilt/actually build. Dayton Moore, Royals GM, reminds me of Isiah Thomas. He knows what he wants to do, and he has good intentions. But his execution of his vision is horrendous, and sucking the Royals dry of talent.
AL West
1.) Athletics - Lots of pitching here. Watch out. I frankly don't care that they hit abysmally.
2.) Angels - Mike Sciosia will squeeze 85 wins out of this team. Playing Brandon Wood regularly would help.
3.) Mariners- Got real, real lucky last year. But they didn't really improve their roster over last year.
4.) Rangers- Elvis Andrus has to hit a little more this year. Neftali Perez needs to show he can start. But might not get out of this division's basement, even if they have a winning record.
This is the year's biggest crapshoot. I'd hate to bet against the league's best manager who still has a decent level of talent. The Athletics are sneaky good. Mariners had a great offseason, but lost enough talent that the talent they added is mostly negated. Rangers still need more pitching. Badly.
Wildcard: Rays
NL East
1.) Mets - Probably a lot of bias here, but this is essentially an even better team than the one SI picked to win the World Series last year.
2.) Phillies - Sustained the level of talent from last year. But everything went right for them in 2009. It would really help if Cole Hamels' new breaking pitch is any good.
3.) Braves - Will pitch themselves into third, but can't hit at all.
4.) Marlins - This team can pitch a little, and can hit a little, but neither extremely well.
5.) Nationals - Better than last year, but still the worst team in this division.
This division will come down to the Mets and Phillies again. I just think it's more likely that the Mets don't lose $100 million in payroll than for Raul Ibanez, Jayson Werth, J.A. Happ, and others to play that much over their head again.
NL Central
1.) Cardinals - Pujols/Holliday/Rasmus in one batting order scares me. Scares me enough that I forget about nearly 80% of the roster.
2.) Reds - So much young talent.
3.) Brewers - Some elite talent carrying a lot of otherwise average players.
4.) Cubs - Similar to their Chi-city counterparts, they also need to rebuild, bad.
5.) Astros - Nothing much to say, probably the most uninteresting team in the majors.
6.) Pirates - I've seen Garrett Jones play, he's a AAAA player.
This is a two team race. Reds should hit better than the Cards, but might not have enough pitching to match Dave Duncan's brilliance. Brewers might surprise, but unlikely to take the division.
NL West
1.) Rockies - A full season of non-Clint Hurdle management (although Jim Tracy doesn't exactly set the world on fire).
2.) D-Backs - I'm expecting a bigger year out of Drew, another huge year from Reynolds, and a healthy Webb makes the front of the rotation potentially scary with Haren/Webb/Edwin Jackson.
3.)Dodgers - Torre once again proved he's the most overrated manager in the majors as he pulled his best SP from the rotation at the end of last year.
4.) Giants - an average team, with the best 1-2 SP punch in the NL
5.) Padres - I don't know if I can even name 5 players on this team anymore.
The Rockies are the NL's best team, it's a shame Huston Street and Brad Lidge switched bodies in the playoffs last year. The divorce of the McCourt's is killing the Dodgers, who all of a sudden can't hand out such stupid contracts as Andruw Jone's $18 million a year debacle. The Diamondbacks could contend for the wildcard easily, and if they get anything from Stephen Drew, Chris Young, and Ian Kennedy they could take the division
Wildcard: Reds - The 2nd place finisher in the NL East will just miss first, but as in recent years past, the division will beat up on itself too much to allow its 2nd place finisher to make the playoffs.
Saturday, January 23, 2010
Thoughts on Recapping the Off-season
First, I must say this is one of the more disappointing off-seasons in recent memory. There was absolutely nothing extremely surprising that happened. Normally at least one team makes a big splash that shakes up how everyone approaches the coming year. Hasn't happened. No one really has made dramatic improvements, most teams did nothing much or just enough to stay at the same level they were last year.
As signings start to dwindle down and the trade market slows as well, and the arbitration period coming to a close, it's time to recap a little of how this postseason has went. All these rankings are tentative to chagne based on what happens in the rest of the off-season.
Offseason Winners:
1.) Yankees
2.) Red Sox
3.) Mariners
The Yankees stayed on the same talent level, and got younger. No super risky changes, kept the core of the team intact. Now, if they were only smart enough to trade Joba in a deal for Halladay...The Red Sox made little improvements all over the field, but they might be winners if only because they didn't lose as much as they could've. Lackey definitely boosts the rotation, giving them at least one reliable arm behind Lester and Beckett, but the only hitter in that lineup that scares any team is Victor Martinez....Seattle takes the third spot for locking up Felix, acquiring Cliff Lee for Phillipe Aumonte, and adequately replacing Adrian Beltre with Chone Figgins.
Offseason Losers:
1.) Phillies
2.) Cubs
3.) Dodgers
The Phillies are the big losers for A.) replacing Pedro Feliz with Polanco, B.) replacing Lee with Halladay at the cost of the rest of their farm, and C.) using money they could've used on Cliff Lee to pay Joe Blanton. The Cubs for failing to improve, paying too much for a LOOGY who isn't much of a LOOGY and everything involved with Milton Bradley. The Dodgers are big losers as they did nothing, and their payroll has dropped $40 million in the last 2 years.
Wildcard: Mets
The Mets missed on on Piniero and Molina, which some would say is a good thing, and still have money to spend. If they can grab John Smoltz for the back of the rotation, and could also sign Ben Sheets, and pick up Rod Barajas or Yorvit Torrealba for half the cost of Molina, who's at best slightly better than those two. Basically, the Mets have options, and some money to spend, and if they find a taker for Luis Castillo, who has some value,they could also grab Orlando Hudson. If everything else falls into place for them, they could easily vault to number one on the winners list with additions of at least one of those two catchers, one of those two catchers (or Erik Bedard?) and another arm, preferably for the bullpen to replace Brian Stokes. Highly possible and feasable situation
Best off-season acquisition: Curtis Granderson. Now Yankee fans can finally stop pretending Melky Cabrera is good.
Worst off-season acquisition: Joel Piniero. He was bad in the AL West before, what makes this time any different? Except that the Angels' park isn't as good for pitchers as Safeco.
Most puzzling off-season acquisition: Bengie Molina. This is actually a retention, but he was a type B free agent, and they have both Pablo Sandoval and Buster Posey, the best catching prospect remaining after Wieters was called up last summer.
Biggest catastrophe avoided: Atlanta Braves potentially having the most expensive bullpen in history.
Best Free agent still available: John Smoltz. He should land somewhere and give someone some solid innings. Sheets is a little less dependable in that area.
Smartest move: The Yankees making Johnny Damon wait. It's clear everyone thinks his power resurgence is all from Yankee Stadium. He came into the off-season looking for 3 years/$30 million even though he's in his mid-thirties. Scott Boras dropped the ball on this one. Looks like he'll head back to the Yankees next year for Bobby Abreu money last year.
As signings start to dwindle down and the trade market slows as well, and the arbitration period coming to a close, it's time to recap a little of how this postseason has went. All these rankings are tentative to chagne based on what happens in the rest of the off-season.
Offseason Winners:
1.) Yankees
2.) Red Sox
3.) Mariners
The Yankees stayed on the same talent level, and got younger. No super risky changes, kept the core of the team intact. Now, if they were only smart enough to trade Joba in a deal for Halladay...The Red Sox made little improvements all over the field, but they might be winners if only because they didn't lose as much as they could've. Lackey definitely boosts the rotation, giving them at least one reliable arm behind Lester and Beckett, but the only hitter in that lineup that scares any team is Victor Martinez....Seattle takes the third spot for locking up Felix, acquiring Cliff Lee for Phillipe Aumonte, and adequately replacing Adrian Beltre with Chone Figgins.
Offseason Losers:
1.) Phillies
2.) Cubs
3.) Dodgers
The Phillies are the big losers for A.) replacing Pedro Feliz with Polanco, B.) replacing Lee with Halladay at the cost of the rest of their farm, and C.) using money they could've used on Cliff Lee to pay Joe Blanton. The Cubs for failing to improve, paying too much for a LOOGY who isn't much of a LOOGY and everything involved with Milton Bradley. The Dodgers are big losers as they did nothing, and their payroll has dropped $40 million in the last 2 years.
Wildcard: Mets
The Mets missed on on Piniero and Molina, which some would say is a good thing, and still have money to spend. If they can grab John Smoltz for the back of the rotation, and could also sign Ben Sheets, and pick up Rod Barajas or Yorvit Torrealba for half the cost of Molina, who's at best slightly better than those two. Basically, the Mets have options, and some money to spend, and if they find a taker for Luis Castillo, who has some value,they could also grab Orlando Hudson. If everything else falls into place for them, they could easily vault to number one on the winners list with additions of at least one of those two catchers, one of those two catchers (or Erik Bedard?) and another arm, preferably for the bullpen to replace Brian Stokes. Highly possible and feasable situation
Best off-season acquisition: Curtis Granderson. Now Yankee fans can finally stop pretending Melky Cabrera is good.
Worst off-season acquisition: Joel Piniero. He was bad in the AL West before, what makes this time any different? Except that the Angels' park isn't as good for pitchers as Safeco.
Most puzzling off-season acquisition: Bengie Molina. This is actually a retention, but he was a type B free agent, and they have both Pablo Sandoval and Buster Posey, the best catching prospect remaining after Wieters was called up last summer.
Biggest catastrophe avoided: Atlanta Braves potentially having the most expensive bullpen in history.
Best Free agent still available: John Smoltz. He should land somewhere and give someone some solid innings. Sheets is a little less dependable in that area.
Smartest move: The Yankees making Johnny Damon wait. It's clear everyone thinks his power resurgence is all from Yankee Stadium. He came into the off-season looking for 3 years/$30 million even though he's in his mid-thirties. Scott Boras dropped the ball on this one. Looks like he'll head back to the Yankees next year for Bobby Abreu money last year.
Wednesday, January 13, 2010
Thoughts on Mark McGwire
Anyone who's ever read anything I've written, or have heard any of my ranting diatribes on Mark McGwire knows I have a pretty clear stance on him. He's the ultimate product of the generation. Someone who tried to use steroids to prolong a career that shouldn't have been sustainable. Did he legitimately have that sort of power? Yeah, probably, he did hit for a rookie record of 49 homers after all. But he needed steroids to sustain it.
Also, it's unfair to pick on him because he was the greatest power hitter of the 90's. We don't know for sure everyone who did and who didn't, so to put all this blame on McGwire is a witch hunt. Yankee fans are offended he broke Maris' record. Purists hate the steroids, but most fans honestly don't seem to care, especially if they tend to like the player. The public only really seems to be angry at those who have made a mockery of this whole mess (Jose Canseco, Rodriguez, Clemens, Palmeiro).
Someone from the steroids era is going to get into teh Hall of Fame, and that'll mean everyone else will have to give in. Make Mark McGwire the first, Palmeiro the next and Sosa later. And honestly, someone who cheated and wasn't caught will get in and "taint" the Hall of Fame, so let them all in.
Also, it's unfair to pick on him because he was the greatest power hitter of the 90's. We don't know for sure everyone who did and who didn't, so to put all this blame on McGwire is a witch hunt. Yankee fans are offended he broke Maris' record. Purists hate the steroids, but most fans honestly don't seem to care, especially if they tend to like the player. The public only really seems to be angry at those who have made a mockery of this whole mess (Jose Canseco, Rodriguez, Clemens, Palmeiro).
Someone from the steroids era is going to get into teh Hall of Fame, and that'll mean everyone else will have to give in. Make Mark McGwire the first, Palmeiro the next and Sosa later. And honestly, someone who cheated and wasn't caught will get in and "taint" the Hall of Fame, so let them all in.
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