Thoughts on Recapping the Off-season

First, I must say this is one of the more disappointing off-seasons in recent memory. There was absolutely nothing extremely surprising that happened. Normally at least one team makes a big splash that shakes up how everyone approaches the coming year. Hasn't happened. No one really has made dramatic improvements, most teams did nothing much or just enough to stay at the same level they were last year.

As signings start to dwindle down and the trade market slows as well, and the arbitration period coming to a close, it's time to recap a little of how this postseason has went. All these rankings are tentative to chagne based on what happens in the rest of the off-season.

Offseason Winners:
1.) Yankees
2.) Red Sox
3.) Mariners

The Yankees stayed on the same talent level, and got younger. No super risky changes, kept the core of the team intact. Now, if they were only smart enough to trade Joba in a deal for Halladay...The Red Sox made little improvements all over the field, but they might be winners if only because they didn't lose as much as they could've. Lackey definitely boosts the rotation, giving them at least one reliable arm behind Lester and Beckett, but the only hitter in that lineup that scares any team is Victor Martinez....Seattle takes the third spot for locking up Felix, acquiring Cliff Lee for Phillipe Aumonte, and adequately replacing Adrian Beltre with Chone Figgins.

Offseason Losers:
1.) Phillies
2.) Cubs
3.) Dodgers

The Phillies are the big losers for A.) replacing Pedro Feliz with Polanco, B.) replacing Lee with Halladay at the cost of the rest of their farm, and C.) using money they could've used on Cliff Lee to pay Joe Blanton. The Cubs for failing to improve, paying too much for a LOOGY who isn't much of a LOOGY and everything involved with Milton Bradley. The Dodgers are big losers as they did nothing, and their payroll has dropped $40 million in the last 2 years.

Wildcard: Mets

The Mets missed on on Piniero and Molina, which some would say is a good thing, and still have money to spend. If they can grab John Smoltz for the back of the rotation, and could also sign Ben Sheets, and pick up Rod Barajas or Yorvit Torrealba for half the cost of Molina, who's at best slightly better than those two. Basically, the Mets have options, and some money to spend, and if they find a taker for Luis Castillo, who has some value,they could also grab Orlando Hudson. If everything else falls into place for them, they could easily vault to number one on the winners list with additions of at least one of those two catchers, one of those two catchers (or Erik Bedard?) and another arm, preferably for the bullpen to replace Brian Stokes. Highly possible and feasable situation

Best off-season acquisition: Curtis Granderson. Now Yankee fans can finally stop pretending Melky Cabrera is good.

Worst off-season acquisition: Joel Piniero. He was bad in the AL West before, what makes this time any different? Except that the Angels' park isn't as good for pitchers as Safeco.

Most puzzling off-season acquisition: Bengie Molina. This is actually a retention, but he was a type B free agent, and they have both Pablo Sandoval and Buster Posey, the best catching prospect remaining after Wieters was called up last summer.

Biggest catastrophe avoided: Atlanta Braves potentially having the most expensive bullpen in history.

Best Free agent still available: John Smoltz. He should land somewhere and give someone some solid innings. Sheets is a little less dependable in that area.

Smartest move: The Yankees making Johnny Damon wait. It's clear everyone thinks his power resurgence is all from Yankee Stadium. He came into the off-season looking for 3 years/$30 million even though he's in his mid-thirties. Scott Boras dropped the ball on this one. Looks like he'll head back to the Yankees next year for Bobby Abreu money last year.

Thoughts on Lackey and Halladay

John Lackey is headed to Boston Red Sox for a deal slightly larger than A.J. Burnett's last season. When Jason Bay started to look like he wasn't coming back, they had money to spend. After missing out on Teixeira last year, and now Bay, they have some free cash. This signing may or may not prohibit them from pursuing Matt Holliday.

Roy Halladay was traded to the Phillies, and the trade also pushes Cliff Lee to the Mariners. The Phillies also trade away two of their top three prospects (Kyle Drabek and Michael Taylor), as well as one of their other better ones, to the Phillies, and receive the hard throwing Phillipe Aumont from Seattle.

Does this make the Phillies a better team? Slightly. Halladay is a slightly better pitcher than Lee, and they are going to sign him to a smaller extension than Lee will demand. Halladay is a year older, so that's a slight loss, but the guarantee that they will have Halladay beyond this season is a huge gain for them.

But Michael Taylor and Kyke Drabek are a pretty steep cost. And while Halladay won't want a contract comparable to what he'd get as a free agent after this season, his discounted contract will probably end up around the contract that Cliff Lee would have demanded. So this relative money savings comes at the cost of Michael Taylor, which isn't that great of a price for the Phillies.

And Phillipe Aumont plus some unknown strong, but note elite prospects is a pretty good price for Cliff Lee, or at least comparable to what the Phillies paid for him last July. So the Mariners get a win for him, and they probably have money to sign him for an extension if they so choose. Did the Blue Jays get a fair return for Halladay? Yeah. The Phillies made a bold move here, and have successfully traded 6 of their top 7 prospects since July.

Now this leaves one to wonder, why didn't the Phillies make a similar deal to this back in July? Wouldn't a rotation led by Halladay virtually guarantee them a World Series?

To me, Aumont is the best prospect moved in this deal. I remember seeing him pitch at the World Baseball Classic, and was wowed by how good he was. I like him more than Drabek (although I'm probably in the minority here).

However, a once overrated top-heavy farm system is in danger of being near barren. They have two blue-chippers, and no depth. And the worry about Aumont is that he might be a reliever and not a starter, in which case, his value is a lot lower. On the other hand, he can close instead of Lidge if Lidge falters again.