Thoughts on preseason predictions

It's really difficult to predict the future. Especially in baseball. Assumptions have to be made when guessing who'll win the division. Such as Chipper Jones missing at least 20 games, Ryan Howard striking out almost 200 times and Alex Rodriguez kicking ass, steroids or no steroids.

However, by May, many of the predictions start to crumble. B.J. Upton hitting around the mendoza line, Raul Ibanez leading the league in home runs, and decent pitching from the Rangers all contribute to surprises that skew these predictions.

Naturally, it was really easy to pick the NL East based on very reasonable assumptions. The Mets were an easy pick to win, if not run away with the division. This was a team who was undermined by a crippled bullpen at the end of September. They fielded fine, hit fine, ran fine, and their starters were good (Santana was amazing).

So they added J.J. Putz, K-Rod, and Sean Green, and subtracted Schoenweiss, Ayala, Heilman, etc. Easy fix, this is now a team without a real big weakness as every other contender in the NL has.

And then the Mets became a perfect example of why predicting the future is impossible. For a stretch of nearly 2 weeks, they've regularly been missing starters at Catcher, First, Shortstop, and Center, as well as a few games at Third. Also missing are troubled starter Oliver Perez and sometimes Rightfielder Ryan Church. And while the Mets seemed to have enough depth, when they lost the backup Shortstop Alex Cora to the DL, it was clear that the Mets had been bit by the injury bug and got AIDS.

So what we have is a Mets team that's barely staying afloat, one that was getting hot, until half the team hit the DL. Maybe the Mets get everyone together again, and still win the division, but it certainly won't be the cakewalk it should have been. But right now, they're proving how hard it is to predict a 162 game season.

Maybe I should stop making a preseason prediction. I'd have a better chance of winning the lottery.