Thoughts on preseason predictions

It's really difficult to predict the future. Especially in baseball. Assumptions have to be made when guessing who'll win the division. Such as Chipper Jones missing at least 20 games, Ryan Howard striking out almost 200 times and Alex Rodriguez kicking ass, steroids or no steroids.

However, by May, many of the predictions start to crumble. B.J. Upton hitting around the mendoza line, Raul Ibanez leading the league in home runs, and decent pitching from the Rangers all contribute to surprises that skew these predictions.

Naturally, it was really easy to pick the NL East based on very reasonable assumptions. The Mets were an easy pick to win, if not run away with the division. This was a team who was undermined by a crippled bullpen at the end of September. They fielded fine, hit fine, ran fine, and their starters were good (Santana was amazing).

So they added J.J. Putz, K-Rod, and Sean Green, and subtracted Schoenweiss, Ayala, Heilman, etc. Easy fix, this is now a team without a real big weakness as every other contender in the NL has.

And then the Mets became a perfect example of why predicting the future is impossible. For a stretch of nearly 2 weeks, they've regularly been missing starters at Catcher, First, Shortstop, and Center, as well as a few games at Third. Also missing are troubled starter Oliver Perez and sometimes Rightfielder Ryan Church. And while the Mets seemed to have enough depth, when they lost the backup Shortstop Alex Cora to the DL, it was clear that the Mets had been bit by the injury bug and got AIDS.

So what we have is a Mets team that's barely staying afloat, one that was getting hot, until half the team hit the DL. Maybe the Mets get everyone together again, and still win the division, but it certainly won't be the cakewalk it should have been. But right now, they're proving how hard it is to predict a 162 game season.

Maybe I should stop making a preseason prediction. I'd have a better chance of winning the lottery.

Thoughts on being a lazy blogger/recent happenings in baseball

So yeah, between finals, moving back to Irondequoit, and my column for the Michigan Daily, this blog has taken the backseat to the rest of my life. NO MORE! I'm recommitting myself to the random baseball thoughts blog.

Obviously, the biggest story in baseball the past few weeks is Manny Ramirez and his suspension. Yes Manny messed up. No he didn't test positive for steroids. Yes this drug has an association with steroids. But what exactly does this drug do? Restart testosterone. Which isn't exactly a PED (Performance Enhancing Drug). And it's not a mask for steroid use either, so that begs the question: why is it banned? I don't anticipate this affecting Manny's entry in the Hall of Fame, and it shouldn't. Serving his suspension is punishment enough, double jeopardy in this case is too much.

In other news:

BJ Upton was hitting something around .170 as of last night. Are you kidding me Upton? .170? In May? Really? You're killing your team (as well as my fantasy team). He's way too talented to be hitting this bad.

The Mets were on a 7 game win streak, but thanks to Jerry Manuel's awful bullpen handling, that's over. Another good start by Johan wasted. When will he learn that Pedro Feliciano can't get righties out?

Justin Verlander's been on fire. He looks like it's 2007 again. Took him long enough. Can't keep pitchers with filthy breaking balls and 100 mph heaters down too long.

This should be Randy Johnson's last season, he's been struggling all year.

It must be annoying playing the Blue Jays, every time you think they've lost all their pitching (except the always amazing/healthy Roy Halladay), they find more. They have to run out some time right? right?

Anyone see Texas in first place in the AL West part of the way into May? Anyone?

Boston's tied for first place in the AL East with the worst starting pitching ERA in the AL so far. And David Ortiz has 0 HR's. HOW IS THIS POSSIBLE?

But just like BAPIP, standings always seem to regress to the mean. Give it time I guess, because something's got to give with all these weird occurrences.