Thoughts on Jason Bay to the Mets

The Mets nabbed their prime Leftfield target this offseason, Jason Bay, for what seems like a reasonable price (around $16 million a year for four years, plus a vesting option for a fifth year).

Positives in this deal: Mets needed a power hitting outfielder, Jason Bay is a .520 career slugger. The Mets didn't overpay really, and Jason Bay's played in a big market so New York shouldn't phase him. He's averaged 154 games played over the last 5 seasons, and the Mets badly needed a player who would stay healthy.

Negatives: Mets didn't have much competition, so did they really need to include this 5th year vesting option that supposedly vests easily? Did they bid against themselves again? He's already 31, so he will be 35 or 36 when this deal ends. He's a poor fielder, and the outfield in Citifield's huge. Matt Holliday would have cost around $10 million more, and would probably be a better value.

Final Thought: Hard to argue against an outfielder with a .900 career OPS. And the Mets with a plus defender in Rightfield (Francoeur and/or Fernando Martinez) and the best centerfielder in the game should be able to overcome his shortcomings in left. And maybe some of his homers in Citifield turn back into doubles, but worse things have happened.

Thoughts on Trading with the Evil Empire

Often people complain about how the Yankees never stop getting better. Certainly, the $200 million payroll helps. And attracting players with the promise of winning, money, and tradition is no difficult task. The Yankees strive for excellence unlike any team in sports. They exist in a time where they can't just buy a bunch of players and expect them to fit together and win (remember the years of a rotation featuring Carl Pavano, Jaret Wright, Kevin Brown, as well as the oldest and slowest lineup in the majors?).

But they've gotten smarter, and better, and have a new commitment to winning. The Yankees capped off a World Series win by trying to get both younger and better. They've added Curtis Granderson and Javier Vasquez, replacing the departed Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui.

Now are these moves perfect? No. Curtis Granderson certainly has his drawbacks as a hitter, and Javier Vasquez is possibly one of the most maddeningly inconsistent pitchers maybe ever. But if they work perfectly, it can be expected that the Yankees might be ever better in 2010.

But when a pitcher with a sub 3 ERA and a high K rate is traded for a defense-first centerfielder who isn't even that talented of a defender, no one has any right to complain. Teams aren't even figuratively handing the Yankees wins when they do things like this, they are now literally doing it! Javier Vasquez had much more value than Melky Cabrera, no matter how one looks at it (the prospect dealt along with Melky Cabrera is supposedly nothing special either).

If teams want to stop the Yankees, block their moves, offer more money, be more aggressive. The offseason is a game of simple competitive economics, and it's time everyone started playing it.

Oh, and if anyone things the Yankees are starting next year with Brett Gardner as their starting leftfielder, they are sadly mistaken. The Yankees aren't done yet.

Thoughts on Jason Marquis Signing with the Nats

In a surprise move, Jason Marquis has decided to accept a two year deal with the Washington Nationals for $7.5 million a year. He apparently likes the idea of mentoring a young staff including Jordan Zimmerman and Stephen Strasburg.

I was convinced (as nearly everyone else was) that he was headed to the Mets. But the Mets dragging their feet the whole offseason has grown a tired act, and Marquis wasn't interested in waiting and took some money.

Good move for the Nationals, this is the best they're going to do in free agency this year.

The Mets missed out on an average pitcher. There's still some left, and probably aren't as expensive. (Really, they should just sign Ben Sheets and Erik Bedard, Pedro Martinez, assuming they combine for about 250 IP, they're all pretty cheap and there's no one on the market worth signing long term).

Thoughts on Milton Bradley

In a bad contract swap. The Mariners took Milton Bradley in exchange for the nightmare contract of Carlos Silva.

This makes tons of sense for the Mariners. They added a DH who can play left field on occasion. They got rid of the remaining of the worst contract in Seattle history.

Only drawback is that this DH's name is Milton Bradley, a man who ran himself out of town. Will he be a good guy like he was in Texas? Or a train wreck like in Chicago?

This makes very little sense for the Cubs, except they got rid of Bradley. Silva is a terrible pitcher in any league.

There is no winner for either team. But the Mariners may potentially pull out well, assuming he can be happy for 2 years in Seattle. The Cubs are more than happy to dump him, it'd be a PR disaster if they didn't.

Thoughts on Lackey and Halladay

John Lackey is headed to Boston Red Sox for a deal slightly larger than A.J. Burnett's last season. When Jason Bay started to look like he wasn't coming back, they had money to spend. After missing out on Teixeira last year, and now Bay, they have some free cash. This signing may or may not prohibit them from pursuing Matt Holliday.

Roy Halladay was traded to the Phillies, and the trade also pushes Cliff Lee to the Mariners. The Phillies also trade away two of their top three prospects (Kyle Drabek and Michael Taylor), as well as one of their other better ones, to the Phillies, and receive the hard throwing Phillipe Aumont from Seattle.

Does this make the Phillies a better team? Slightly. Halladay is a slightly better pitcher than Lee, and they are going to sign him to a smaller extension than Lee will demand. Halladay is a year older, so that's a slight loss, but the guarantee that they will have Halladay beyond this season is a huge gain for them.

But Michael Taylor and Kyke Drabek are a pretty steep cost. And while Halladay won't want a contract comparable to what he'd get as a free agent after this season, his discounted contract will probably end up around the contract that Cliff Lee would have demanded. So this relative money savings comes at the cost of Michael Taylor, which isn't that great of a price for the Phillies.

And Phillipe Aumont plus some unknown strong, but note elite prospects is a pretty good price for Cliff Lee, or at least comparable to what the Phillies paid for him last July. So the Mariners get a win for him, and they probably have money to sign him for an extension if they so choose. Did the Blue Jays get a fair return for Halladay? Yeah. The Phillies made a bold move here, and have successfully traded 6 of their top 7 prospects since July.

Now this leaves one to wonder, why didn't the Phillies make a similar deal to this back in July? Wouldn't a rotation led by Halladay virtually guarantee them a World Series?

To me, Aumont is the best prospect moved in this deal. I remember seeing him pitch at the World Baseball Classic, and was wowed by how good he was. I like him more than Drabek (although I'm probably in the minority here).

However, a once overrated top-heavy farm system is in danger of being near barren. They have two blue-chippers, and no depth. And the worry about Aumont is that he might be a reliever and not a starter, in which case, his value is a lot lower. On the other hand, he can close instead of Lidge if Lidge falters again.