Thoughts of Various Natures

Now's as good as time as ever to spout out some random thoughts division by division. Let's start in everyone's least favorite division the AL East.

AL East - What? The Rays are in first place a month into the season? No way! Yes way, what I've always said is the most talented roster in the majors has finally put it all together and are just trying to hold off the Yankees in attempt to capture another division crown. I don't understand what makes the Yankees so good, but maybe it's when the nobodies step in when the stars go down or aren't producing. See Brett Gardner. The Red Sox are called a mess, but are still one game over .500 and not even 5 games out and the season's just over a month old, so they have plenty of time to catch up. Toronto's played well, but that won't be happening much longer. Nice to see Travis Snider coming along.

AL Central - I don't understand the Twins. They have Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, and a bunch of other good but not great players. Jason Kubel's has to play better for them though. And Delmon Young is actually hitting above average for a corner outfielder, which I was beginning to think will never happen. Tigers are staying close, and Justin Verlander isn't even pitching well yet, not to mention Scherzer or Porcello pitching like they should have never graduated from High-A ball. And Kansas City is still bad, at least Mike Aviles is looking good for them, even if it looks like they've given up on Alex Gordon.

AL West - If I'm the Angels, and I'm 6 games under .500, I'm not still starting Brandon Wood. I don't know why he's not hitting, but he's not, and it's making me look stupid. For as you can remember from March 1st:

" 1.) Brandon Wood hits 18 home runs before the All-Star break, and make the world's best manager look foolish for never playing him regularly. "

Whoops! The Rangers are neck and neck with the Texas Rangers for first place. And Dallas Braden pitched a perfect game. Suck it A-Rod. No really though, to be frank, Braden doesn't know Rodriguez, so the attack on him being a bad teammate isn't fair, and he pitched a fit about something that's really not that big of a deal in baseball. No, you're not supposed to step on the mound, but it's not like it's one of the ten commandments of baseball. If you're really angry, throw at his head the next time he comes up, but trying to start this feud in the media is ridiculous. Kudos to Rodriguez for continually taking the high road.

NL East - No team is more than 4.5 games out of first. Every team except Washington has spent time in first place since April 7th, and even they have spent some time in 2nd, and if I'm right, are over .500 in May for the first time in a few years. I still got the Mets for first, although Carlos Beltran back before the All-Star break is looking less likely. By 2012, Ike Davis will be known as the best first-baseman in the NL East. Washington was just planning to bide some time until Strasburg showed up, and it looks like they're doing that. It'd be really crazy if they're still in it a month from now, and he swings the whole race.

NL Central - Cincinnati is tied for first with St. Louis, and that also corresponds with Joey Votto finally coming around. Not exactly a surprise. This team will hit, but more than likely their abysmal starting pitching will keep them out of it. The league's most boring division, there's really not much to say here.

NL West - The division standings are almost flip-flopped from what I thought they would be. But some things are apparent -- Dodgers just aren't that good, Arizona needs some pitching, and Webb to hurry back, Colorado refuses to play consistently, San Francisco can really pitch, and hits just a little better than last year, and San Diego's surprised me, because I don't' see a whole lot of talent on that roster, and this is after they traded Jake Peavy away. Maybe they should trade Adrian Gonzalez away too, it might turn them into a 95-win team. On second thought don't. But what this start means is that they're less likely to trade him away midseason.

Thoughts on Ryan Howard's Riches

Sometimes one contract can ruin an entire market. It's not the player's fault, and certainly in this case the finger pointing shouldn't be pointed at Ryan Howard. But the Phillies screwed the market for at least a handful of teams with first baseman about to reach free agency this season or next.

Put it simply, his combined deals since he became an MLB player are almost identical to the one that Mark Teixeira received on the open market. Once he reaches his new deal in two years, he will probably be the second highest player in the MLB behind Alex Rodriguez (although who knows now, some much, much better first-basemen will hit the open market by then, and could surpass this deal).

As Rob Neyer put it, even in his best years, Ryan Howard is maybe, maybe one of the best 30 players in baseball, if you choose to look at a very specific set of stats. So what will happen when Adrian Gonzalez, Prince Fielder, and Albert Pujols approach free agency? This has to mean Pujols should get $30 million/year for 7 years, and Fielder should expect at least the same deal as Howard, even if he will be taking it at a younger age.

Howard should take up anywhere between 15%-20% of the Phillies payroll in the next several years. It also means they probably can't keep Jason Werth, who's primed for big money this offseason (Yankees or Giants maybe?). That's ok, because they have Dominic Brown, but it'd be better if they had Werth locked up up long term and could either trade Brown, Victorino or Ibanez away for a decent return (Werth will probably shake out as a "B" free agent, although he has a chance to grab an "A").

The Phillies should have waited, seen him declne as he aged, and used that as leverage. They probably could of at least shaved him down to $18 million a year. And they won't be able to keep Halladay either probably, as he'll want big money. The advantage of their big farm was they would have options as all their inexpensive talent became expensive. Now they're sticking themselves in a corner.

Braves sign Saito

Atlanta Braves just made another splash on the free agent market, signing Takashi Saito to a one year contract.

This is a low-cost, low risk signing for the Atlanta Braves, who've now successfully replaced both Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano in their bullpen. The only really problem they run at this point is if both Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano accept arbitration. Yes the bullpen would be good, but it'd cost them over $20 million to employ all 4.

In all reality though, the chances of one of those two, let alone both, returns is very low.

Thoughts on Polanco and Wagner signings

The Atlanta Braves immediately addressed one of their pertinent needs this offseason as they signed probable future Hall-of-Fame closer Billy Wagner to a one year deal at a fairly reasonable price.

Any way you look at it, the Braves put themselves in a good situation this offseason. They offered both Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez arbitration, meaning even if they sign elsewhere, they will receive draft picks compensating those they lost signing Billy Wagner. If they accept arbitration, they have a great back of the bullpen featuring 3 guys who can close games.

And today, the Phillies signed a familiar face, Placido Polanco, once traded to them for Scott Rolen. Realistically, they traded stronger defense for a marginal offensive upgrade, at a price that ties them up for 3 years with a 34 year old third baseman. They must have decided players such as Mark DeRosa and Adrian Beltre were too expensive. But they didn't even sign Polanco to that cheap of a contract. The only real advantage to signing Polanco is that they didn't have to forfeit a draft pick.