Thoughts on Ryan Howard's Riches

Sometimes one contract can ruin an entire market. It's not the player's fault, and certainly in this case the finger pointing shouldn't be pointed at Ryan Howard. But the Phillies screwed the market for at least a handful of teams with first baseman about to reach free agency this season or next.

Put it simply, his combined deals since he became an MLB player are almost identical to the one that Mark Teixeira received on the open market. Once he reaches his new deal in two years, he will probably be the second highest player in the MLB behind Alex Rodriguez (although who knows now, some much, much better first-basemen will hit the open market by then, and could surpass this deal).

As Rob Neyer put it, even in his best years, Ryan Howard is maybe, maybe one of the best 30 players in baseball, if you choose to look at a very specific set of stats. So what will happen when Adrian Gonzalez, Prince Fielder, and Albert Pujols approach free agency? This has to mean Pujols should get $30 million/year for 7 years, and Fielder should expect at least the same deal as Howard, even if he will be taking it at a younger age.

Howard should take up anywhere between 15%-20% of the Phillies payroll in the next several years. It also means they probably can't keep Jason Werth, who's primed for big money this offseason (Yankees or Giants maybe?). That's ok, because they have Dominic Brown, but it'd be better if they had Werth locked up up long term and could either trade Brown, Victorino or Ibanez away for a decent return (Werth will probably shake out as a "B" free agent, although he has a chance to grab an "A").

The Phillies should have waited, seen him declne as he aged, and used that as leverage. They probably could of at least shaved him down to $18 million a year. And they won't be able to keep Halladay either probably, as he'll want big money. The advantage of their big farm was they would have options as all their inexpensive talent became expensive. Now they're sticking themselves in a corner.

Thoughts on the Year's First Big Promotion

Recently it was reported that the Mets would call up Ike Davis to play first as soon as they felt comfortable sending their 13th pitcher back down to the minors, which was necessary after a 20 inning win last Saturday.

Davis, ranked the 68th best prospect according to Baseball America coming into the season, scorched the ball in Spring Training, but with Daniel Murphy, Fernando Tatis, Frank Catalanatto and Mike Jacobs to man first, they felt they were able to wait on him, and sent him back to the minors.

But since then, Murphy got hurt, Jacobs has struggled, and the other two aren't players who should be starting at first more than a game or two at a time. Meanwhile, Davis has continued to rack up hits in AAA, carrying his hot ST over into the regular season.

Davis' power is real. Maybe he's not quite Mike Jacobs strong, but few people are. But he's also a solid hitter for average, and has a reputation for being nimble around the bag (despite some struggles there in ST). He's not a base-stealer, but isn't immobile like Jason Giambi, Ryan Howard, or Justin Morneau. I project him as a .275/.340/.500 type hitter who could slug anywhere between 25-35 homers a year. Certainly the Mets' first baseman of the future, and for now, the present, at least until Murphy comes back.

Thoughts on All-Star Teams

This year's teams bay be the least objectionable I've seen in years. There's no catchers batting under .250, or absurd personal choices by coaches who want their own guys. Ryan Howard/Ben Zobrist may not be the best players, but one could make arguments for them making the team.

I only have a few players on my list who really don't have any business being in this game:

Jason Marquis - he has 10 wins, he must be having a good year! Which he is, but not All-Star good. Javier Vasquez, Jair Jurrjens, Yovanni Gallardo?

Yadier Molina - One of the most consistently overrated players in baseball. Pablo Sandoval (4th in the NL in hitting)?

Ryan Howard - defensible, but he's still hitting .250, and Adrian Gonzalez and Prince Fielder are already reserves at this position, and both are having much better years.

I don't have any major issues with the AL rosters. It's hard to argue with these choices. Joe Maddon gave another example of why he's such a genius, crafting perhaps the best All-Star roster he could.