Sometimes one contract can ruin an entire market. It's not the player's fault, and certainly in this case the finger pointing shouldn't be pointed at Ryan Howard. But the Phillies screwed the market for at least a handful of teams with first baseman about to reach free agency this season or next.
Put it simply, his combined deals since he became an MLB player are almost identical to the one that Mark Teixeira received on the open market. Once he reaches his new deal in two years, he will probably be the second highest player in the MLB behind Alex Rodriguez (although who knows now, some much, much better first-basemen will hit the open market by then, and could surpass this deal).
As Rob Neyer put it, even in his best years, Ryan Howard is maybe, maybe one of the best 30 players in baseball, if you choose to look at a very specific set of stats. So what will happen when Adrian Gonzalez, Prince Fielder, and Albert Pujols approach free agency? This has to mean Pujols should get $30 million/year for 7 years, and Fielder should expect at least the same deal as Howard, even if he will be taking it at a younger age.
Howard should take up anywhere between 15%-20% of the Phillies payroll in the next several years. It also means they probably can't keep Jason Werth, who's primed for big money this offseason (Yankees or Giants maybe?). That's ok, because they have Dominic Brown, but it'd be better if they had Werth locked up up long term and could either trade Brown, Victorino or Ibanez away for a decent return (Werth will probably shake out as a "B" free agent, although he has a chance to grab an "A").
The Phillies should have waited, seen him declne as he aged, and used that as leverage. They probably could of at least shaved him down to $18 million a year. And they won't be able to keep Halladay either probably, as he'll want big money. The advantage of their big farm was they would have options as all their inexpensive talent became expensive. Now they're sticking themselves in a corner.
Showing posts with label Ibanez. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ibanez. Show all posts
Monday, April 26, 2010
Thursday, August 13, 2009
Thoughts on being a lazy blogger
Between vacation and a lull in interesting baseball news, I haven't blogged in basically two weeks. So this might be a rather long blog.
First up is the 5 spot in the Phillies rotation. Signing Pedro was a dumb move for the Phillies. At best, the difference between him and Jamie Moyer is a wash. And all they did was anger a clubhouse leader, cause a controversy where there didn't need to be one, and insert a pitcher who can potentially maybe have a sub-5 ERA. It's not as if they added Doug Davis, or Aaron Haraang.
Now considering the luck of the Phillies, and the lack of luck by the Mets, Pedro regains his form and proves to be a middle of the rotation starter the Mets so desperately needed. I mean, they added an above average outfielder to replace there, well, nearly identical outfielder, and he turns into Jason Bay. They got J.C. Romero for basically nothing. They got Cliff Lee without giving up one of their 4 best young guys.
And as far as Moyer's reaction is concerned, I'm quite divided on it. On one hand, he should of just shut up and not been a distraction, like he said he didn't want to be. On the other hand, he has something along the lines of 25 years of MLB service time, and has sort of earned the right to say what he wants. I'm completely split-brained on this, and can't make up my mind. Personally, if I was in his situation I would of pitched a fit, but that's me.
Moving on to the Rick Porcello vs. Kevin Youkilis fight. First of all, I'm dumbfounded as to whether Porcello hit him on purpose or accident. The extensive conversation between Jim Leyland and Terry Francona after the fight would indicate that it was most likely on accident. On the other hand, the way the ball was thrown, it looked as if he was trying to nail him. However, he already threw a pitch high and tight clearly intending to hit Youkilis.
Regardless of intent, everything to that point went down as it should've. They hit the Tigers key hitters, they should be throwing back at the Sox.
But Youkilis is a fool for charging the mound. Are you kidding me? Take your lumps like everyone else. And then throwing your helmet? Maybe Porcello looked scared as he moved away from you, but throwing a helmet is just as cowardly, and those things are hard, and can actually hurt a player (crack a kneecap?). Odds are Porcello just didn't want to fight, at risk of suspension. Because the way he threw Youkilis to the ground, (and the fact that he's 6'5") indicates that he knew he could take Youkilis. And if he was throwing at him intentionally, kudos for already proving to be a good teammate at age 19.
Alex Rios got traded about a week ago. Simple salary dump. I don't know this for sure, but J.P. Ricciardi may be an idiot. He failed to get max value for Roy Halladay, he gave a big contract to Vernon Wells, who's since tanked, and Rios, who's done mostly the same. He also gave a big contract to B.J. Ryan, who basically has spent the last 2 years injured, as well as A.J. Burnett, who proved to be just above average, and also spent decent time on the DL. Ricciardi seems to have an eye for young talent (the young starting rotation, Travis Snider, Aaron Hill, etc.), especially young pitching, but lacks an eye for players who can stay healthy.
The Yankees officially transformed themselves into the version of themselves that lost to the D-backs in the World Series a few years back. Only Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, Pettite, and Rivera, etc are all around five years older. This team seems built to win in the regular season, but not for the postseason. Seriously, they have the third worst collection of talent in their own division, and yet they have the best record in baseball. Their catcher sucks behind the dish, Cano's average, and they got very little in the outfield. And their rotation is ok, and the bullpen is average too. Seriously, when teams like the Yankees win it drives me crazy. The Dodgers should win, they are as deep as anyone in the lineup, can play defense, and also have four solid starters. The Yankees are mostly average, and win anyways. Proves to show that I don't understand everything about the game I guess.
First up is the 5 spot in the Phillies rotation. Signing Pedro was a dumb move for the Phillies. At best, the difference between him and Jamie Moyer is a wash. And all they did was anger a clubhouse leader, cause a controversy where there didn't need to be one, and insert a pitcher who can potentially maybe have a sub-5 ERA. It's not as if they added Doug Davis, or Aaron Haraang.
Now considering the luck of the Phillies, and the lack of luck by the Mets, Pedro regains his form and proves to be a middle of the rotation starter the Mets so desperately needed. I mean, they added an above average outfielder to replace there, well, nearly identical outfielder, and he turns into Jason Bay. They got J.C. Romero for basically nothing. They got Cliff Lee without giving up one of their 4 best young guys.
And as far as Moyer's reaction is concerned, I'm quite divided on it. On one hand, he should of just shut up and not been a distraction, like he said he didn't want to be. On the other hand, he has something along the lines of 25 years of MLB service time, and has sort of earned the right to say what he wants. I'm completely split-brained on this, and can't make up my mind. Personally, if I was in his situation I would of pitched a fit, but that's me.
Moving on to the Rick Porcello vs. Kevin Youkilis fight. First of all, I'm dumbfounded as to whether Porcello hit him on purpose or accident. The extensive conversation between Jim Leyland and Terry Francona after the fight would indicate that it was most likely on accident. On the other hand, the way the ball was thrown, it looked as if he was trying to nail him. However, he already threw a pitch high and tight clearly intending to hit Youkilis.
Regardless of intent, everything to that point went down as it should've. They hit the Tigers key hitters, they should be throwing back at the Sox.
But Youkilis is a fool for charging the mound. Are you kidding me? Take your lumps like everyone else. And then throwing your helmet? Maybe Porcello looked scared as he moved away from you, but throwing a helmet is just as cowardly, and those things are hard, and can actually hurt a player (crack a kneecap?). Odds are Porcello just didn't want to fight, at risk of suspension. Because the way he threw Youkilis to the ground, (and the fact that he's 6'5") indicates that he knew he could take Youkilis. And if he was throwing at him intentionally, kudos for already proving to be a good teammate at age 19.
Alex Rios got traded about a week ago. Simple salary dump. I don't know this for sure, but J.P. Ricciardi may be an idiot. He failed to get max value for Roy Halladay, he gave a big contract to Vernon Wells, who's since tanked, and Rios, who's done mostly the same. He also gave a big contract to B.J. Ryan, who basically has spent the last 2 years injured, as well as A.J. Burnett, who proved to be just above average, and also spent decent time on the DL. Ricciardi seems to have an eye for young talent (the young starting rotation, Travis Snider, Aaron Hill, etc.), especially young pitching, but lacks an eye for players who can stay healthy.
The Yankees officially transformed themselves into the version of themselves that lost to the D-backs in the World Series a few years back. Only Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, Pettite, and Rivera, etc are all around five years older. This team seems built to win in the regular season, but not for the postseason. Seriously, they have the third worst collection of talent in their own division, and yet they have the best record in baseball. Their catcher sucks behind the dish, Cano's average, and they got very little in the outfield. And their rotation is ok, and the bullpen is average too. Seriously, when teams like the Yankees win it drives me crazy. The Dodgers should win, they are as deep as anyone in the lineup, can play defense, and also have four solid starters. The Yankees are mostly average, and win anyways. Proves to show that I don't understand everything about the game I guess.
Sunday, May 24, 2009
Thoughts on Surprise Players in 2009
We're a little over a quarter into the season now, so the short flukes from April are gone and those who've maintained success have separated themselves from the pack.
Raul Ibanez is hitting the best he has in his entire career. I'd love to say it's a pure result of hitting in the Phillies home stadium, but I can't. He has more homers on the road. His OPS is 1.156, with a .350 avg and a .412 OBP. Insane. I'm calling for a 2nd half decline for him, he's not this good, no way.
Aaron Hill has seemingly has teased the MLB for a few seasons with his skill, and he finally seems to sustaining it. Kind of like Nate McLouth. Maybe he can sustain it for more than one season, unlike Mclouth, who's faltered a little this year.
Felipe Lopez is off to a good start, hitting .323. It never lasts though.
Johnny Damon's on pace for about 40 HR's. Absurdly insane, I don't believe that for a second.
And then everybody's favorite comeback story, Zack Greinke, is on pace for perhaps the greatest season ever for a pitcher. Is he this good? Of course not. But is he perennial Cy Young winner good? Absolutely. He's going to be the best for years to come.
Raul Ibanez is hitting the best he has in his entire career. I'd love to say it's a pure result of hitting in the Phillies home stadium, but I can't. He has more homers on the road. His OPS is 1.156, with a .350 avg and a .412 OBP. Insane. I'm calling for a 2nd half decline for him, he's not this good, no way.
Aaron Hill has seemingly has teased the MLB for a few seasons with his skill, and he finally seems to sustaining it. Kind of like Nate McLouth. Maybe he can sustain it for more than one season, unlike Mclouth, who's faltered a little this year.
Felipe Lopez is off to a good start, hitting .323. It never lasts though.
Johnny Damon's on pace for about 40 HR's. Absurdly insane, I don't believe that for a second.
And then everybody's favorite comeback story, Zack Greinke, is on pace for perhaps the greatest season ever for a pitcher. Is he this good? Of course not. But is he perennial Cy Young winner good? Absolutely. He's going to be the best for years to come.
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