Sometimes one contract can ruin an entire market. It's not the player's fault, and certainly in this case the finger pointing shouldn't be pointed at Ryan Howard. But the Phillies screwed the market for at least a handful of teams with first baseman about to reach free agency this season or next.
Put it simply, his combined deals since he became an MLB player are almost identical to the one that Mark Teixeira received on the open market. Once he reaches his new deal in two years, he will probably be the second highest player in the MLB behind Alex Rodriguez (although who knows now, some much, much better first-basemen will hit the open market by then, and could surpass this deal).
As Rob Neyer put it, even in his best years, Ryan Howard is maybe, maybe one of the best 30 players in baseball, if you choose to look at a very specific set of stats. So what will happen when Adrian Gonzalez, Prince Fielder, and Albert Pujols approach free agency? This has to mean Pujols should get $30 million/year for 7 years, and Fielder should expect at least the same deal as Howard, even if he will be taking it at a younger age.
Howard should take up anywhere between 15%-20% of the Phillies payroll in the next several years. It also means they probably can't keep Jason Werth, who's primed for big money this offseason (Yankees or Giants maybe?). That's ok, because they have Dominic Brown, but it'd be better if they had Werth locked up up long term and could either trade Brown, Victorino or Ibanez away for a decent return (Werth will probably shake out as a "B" free agent, although he has a chance to grab an "A").
The Phillies should have waited, seen him declne as he aged, and used that as leverage. They probably could of at least shaved him down to $18 million a year. And they won't be able to keep Halladay either probably, as he'll want big money. The advantage of their big farm was they would have options as all their inexpensive talent became expensive. Now they're sticking themselves in a corner.
Monday, April 26, 2010
Wednesday, April 21, 2010
Thoughts on the Most Expensive Reliever Ever
The Cubs, mostly Lou Pinella it seems, decided to move Carlos Zambrano to the bullpen. When I read this headline, I of course did a double-take. To better express how bad this move is, I'll turn to my favorite fantasy writer, Andy Behrens:
What this really appears to be is that the Cubs are panicking. They aren't hitting, their bullpen is blowing most leads they do have, and they certainly don't seem to appear capable of winning the division or at least the Wild Card. I tend to applaud managers for trying new things, but not when they're clearly ridiculous.
Luckily for them, Zambrano's taking it well. Publicly at least, who knows if there was a showdown in the office. But maybe this is a time for Zambrano to go off, show some emotion, vent some frustration, and tell the media what everyone else already knows: the Cubs' front office hasn't been making good decisions for awhile now, and perhaps it's time for a chance and some new life.
"Total organizational failure. Even if Zambrano is successful in the setup role, this is an atrocious use of resources. This is neither bold nor innovative. It's just insane. One of the all-time panic moves. In fact, it's in the panic move hall of fame."Basically, the Cubs have Gorzelanny, Silva, Wells, Zambrano, Dempster, and Lilly returning. Zambrano's stats have not been horrible save the first outing. Other than that horid performance he has a 4 ERA, hardly demotion worthy. Let's remember how bad Silva is, how bad Gorzelanny had to pitch to make the Pirates think he couldn't help their rotation, and that Dempster is a former closer and their bullpen needs relievers and he'd certainly be a nice addition for them. Plus Zambrano's inflated salary, all things being even, is just the Cubs wasting their money.
What this really appears to be is that the Cubs are panicking. They aren't hitting, their bullpen is blowing most leads they do have, and they certainly don't seem to appear capable of winning the division or at least the Wild Card. I tend to applaud managers for trying new things, but not when they're clearly ridiculous.
Luckily for them, Zambrano's taking it well. Publicly at least, who knows if there was a showdown in the office. But maybe this is a time for Zambrano to go off, show some emotion, vent some frustration, and tell the media what everyone else already knows: the Cubs' front office hasn't been making good decisions for awhile now, and perhaps it's time for a chance and some new life.
Monday, April 19, 2010
Thoughts on the Year's First Big Promotion
Recently it was reported that the Mets would call up Ike Davis to play first as soon as they felt comfortable sending their 13th pitcher back down to the minors, which was necessary after a 20 inning win last Saturday.
Davis, ranked the 68th best prospect according to Baseball America coming into the season, scorched the ball in Spring Training, but with Daniel Murphy, Fernando Tatis, Frank Catalanatto and Mike Jacobs to man first, they felt they were able to wait on him, and sent him back to the minors.
But since then, Murphy got hurt, Jacobs has struggled, and the other two aren't players who should be starting at first more than a game or two at a time. Meanwhile, Davis has continued to rack up hits in AAA, carrying his hot ST over into the regular season.
Davis' power is real. Maybe he's not quite Mike Jacobs strong, but few people are. But he's also a solid hitter for average, and has a reputation for being nimble around the bag (despite some struggles there in ST). He's not a base-stealer, but isn't immobile like Jason Giambi, Ryan Howard, or Justin Morneau. I project him as a .275/.340/.500 type hitter who could slug anywhere between 25-35 homers a year. Certainly the Mets' first baseman of the future, and for now, the present, at least until Murphy comes back.
Davis, ranked the 68th best prospect according to Baseball America coming into the season, scorched the ball in Spring Training, but with Daniel Murphy, Fernando Tatis, Frank Catalanatto and Mike Jacobs to man first, they felt they were able to wait on him, and sent him back to the minors.
But since then, Murphy got hurt, Jacobs has struggled, and the other two aren't players who should be starting at first more than a game or two at a time. Meanwhile, Davis has continued to rack up hits in AAA, carrying his hot ST over into the regular season.
Davis' power is real. Maybe he's not quite Mike Jacobs strong, but few people are. But he's also a solid hitter for average, and has a reputation for being nimble around the bag (despite some struggles there in ST). He's not a base-stealer, but isn't immobile like Jason Giambi, Ryan Howard, or Justin Morneau. I project him as a .275/.340/.500 type hitter who could slug anywhere between 25-35 homers a year. Certainly the Mets' first baseman of the future, and for now, the present, at least until Murphy comes back.
Thoughts on the First 2 Weeks
As the first two weeks have gone by, it's time to take a preliminary look at what I've been saying this offseason, and make dramatic, sweeping, hasty conclusions, concessions, and pats-on-the-back to myself. Or not, because my name isn't Jon Heyman. Zing.
But I'm going to make a couple of reactions, going division by division.
But I'm going to make a couple of reactions, going division by division.
Al East: Many analysts said the Rays would need to get off to a hot start this year if they wanted to stay in it and avoid a mini-firesale later in the summer. Instead, they're just wondering if they can save money by dumping Pat Burrel. Reid Brignac has been the nicest surprise player in the division, with David Ortiz probably being the biggest disappointment, since he looked as if he was reclaiming some of the old Big Papi magic in the second half of last season. Mark Teixeira is off to another slow start, but no one's worried, he even hit a homer today.
AL Central: Francisco Liriano is off to a nice start, which is encouraging since he hasn't looked this good since he was a rookie. The Tigers can't ask for much more out of Austin Jackson, who's been superb (.340 AVG). Kansas City should be happy they aren't in last, Jason Kendall and Jose Guillen batting a combined .357 helps a lot.
AL West: Brandon Wood is struggling. I'm not feeling so good right now about his 18 HR's before the break. He'll figure it out, it might take him a little more time though. Oakland surprising a lot of people (not me) by jumping out hot out of the gate.
NL East: Heyward's making me look silly right now, but I still think he's going to struggle a lot later on in the year once pitchers have a game-plan for him. Marlins are essentially the same team as last year, Nate Robertson has been a nice surprise for them, but c'mon, it's Nate Robertson. Hamels tossed a great one today, but earlier he had done nothing to qualm the "what's wrong with Cole Hamels" talk. The answer is still that he doesn't have a good breaking ball anymore, but Philly lovers (cough cough ESPN) still think he's going to be a Cy Yong type guy. Mets have struggled out of the gate, but it's partially understandably, as they've played the Rockies (best NL team), Cardinals (going to win NL Central), Marlins (wild card contender), for 9 of their 12 games. They've seen Carpenter, Josh Johnson, Nolasco, and Wainwright, as well as Aaron Cook and Jorge De La Rosa. This is not a walk in the park, anyone who faces these guys for half their games should be struggling. NL's best bullpen is a nice surprise, and since they cut Jacobs, whispers of Ike Davis coming are everywhere.
NL Central: Last time Pittsburgh had a winning record 12 games into the season? Not in my lifetime. Garrett Jones already has 3 bombs. St. Louis is playing well, no surprise there. The Reds have gotten off to a slow start, mostly due to a surprisingly light hitting offense. Houston's been playing better, but that team is just ugly. Roy Oswalt pitching well though.
NL West: What a surprise, the league's most even division, is, well, even. Ubaldo Jimenez channeled his inner- AJ Burnett for a 6 BB no-hitter. However, this division is looking very much like how I and other s suspected. Arizona needs some starting pitching, LA looks a little old, Colorado is going to be a little inconsistent because they play in Coors, and San Diego can get lucky, but it can't happen too often.
AL Central: Francisco Liriano is off to a nice start, which is encouraging since he hasn't looked this good since he was a rookie. The Tigers can't ask for much more out of Austin Jackson, who's been superb (.340 AVG). Kansas City should be happy they aren't in last, Jason Kendall and Jose Guillen batting a combined .357 helps a lot.
AL West: Brandon Wood is struggling. I'm not feeling so good right now about his 18 HR's before the break. He'll figure it out, it might take him a little more time though. Oakland surprising a lot of people (not me) by jumping out hot out of the gate.
NL East: Heyward's making me look silly right now, but I still think he's going to struggle a lot later on in the year once pitchers have a game-plan for him. Marlins are essentially the same team as last year, Nate Robertson has been a nice surprise for them, but c'mon, it's Nate Robertson. Hamels tossed a great one today, but earlier he had done nothing to qualm the "what's wrong with Cole Hamels" talk. The answer is still that he doesn't have a good breaking ball anymore, but Philly lovers (cough cough ESPN) still think he's going to be a Cy Yong type guy. Mets have struggled out of the gate, but it's partially understandably, as they've played the Rockies (best NL team), Cardinals (going to win NL Central), Marlins (wild card contender), for 9 of their 12 games. They've seen Carpenter, Josh Johnson, Nolasco, and Wainwright, as well as Aaron Cook and Jorge De La Rosa. This is not a walk in the park, anyone who faces these guys for half their games should be struggling. NL's best bullpen is a nice surprise, and since they cut Jacobs, whispers of Ike Davis coming are everywhere.
NL Central: Last time Pittsburgh had a winning record 12 games into the season? Not in my lifetime. Garrett Jones already has 3 bombs. St. Louis is playing well, no surprise there. The Reds have gotten off to a slow start, mostly due to a surprisingly light hitting offense. Houston's been playing better, but that team is just ugly. Roy Oswalt pitching well though.
NL West: What a surprise, the league's most even division, is, well, even. Ubaldo Jimenez channeled his inner- AJ Burnett for a 6 BB no-hitter. However, this division is looking very much like how I and other s suspected. Arizona needs some starting pitching, LA looks a little old, Colorado is going to be a little inconsistent because they play in Coors, and San Diego can get lucky, but it can't happen too often.
Monday, March 1, 2010
Thoughts on 25 Random Predictions for 2010
So in effort to prove my baseball genius, I'm going to try and make 40 non-obvious predictions that the rest of you will think me a fool for. Hopefully I get enough right not to lose all credibility as a very-little read blogger.
1.) Brandon Wood hits 18 home runs before the All-Star break, and make the world's best manager look foolish for never playing him regularly.
2.) Pedro Alvarez will make it to the majors by the All-Star break, and will remind everyone how bad Andy LaRoche is.
3.) Phillip Hughes will pitch very well through July, but will start to tire out because he's used to relieving and all the long outings will wear on his arm.
4.) Tommy Hanson's ERA will be over 4.
5.) A.J. Burnett pitches fewer innings than Ben Sheets.
6.) Ben Sheets will not be traded, but the A's will take the draft pick compensation instead.
7.) Ryan Ludwick hits lower than .250
8.) Of all those "top prospects" the Phillies traded, less than half will give a respectable performance at the MLB level this year. I think Michael Taylor and Lou Marson will do well, Drabek, Donald, Knapp, D'Arnoud, and Carrasco will struggle.
9.) Jorge Cantu is traded to an NL West team.
10.) Zero no-hitters will be thrown this year.
11.) One one-hitter will be thrown. It will be by a Met, he will give up the no-no in the bottom of the 9th, with a homerun, to lose the game 1-0. The pitcher will be Oliver Perez. The hitter will be some light hitting second baseman or a backup catcher. This is the reality of being a Mets fan right now, that this scenario seems entirely possible.
12.) The Nationals don't take Bryce Harper with the number one overall pick in the draft.
13.) The Cubs' starting OF of Byrd, Soriano, Fukodome hit less than 50 HR's combined.
14.) The Diamondbacks' OF of Jackson, Young, Upton hit over 75 HR's combined.
15.) Jason Heyward will be sent back to the minors by the end of May.
16.) Scott Feldman wins 13 or more games
17.) Jorge De La Rosa regresses to his normal "great stuff but is too inconsistent to be good all year long."
18.) The current idea of floating divisions will be killed by the owners eventually, but a new idea with more free flow between divisions that in no way has geographical bearing will become popular and gain steam.
19.) The NL will win the All-Star game.
20.) The Rockies win 105 games, win the pennant, but lose the World Series to the Rays.
21.) The Dodgers will be the NL's biggest bust, winning fewer than 85 games.
22.) Tigers' power arm Daniel Schlereth will say something to prove that his father's obnoxious talking runs in the family.
23.) Curt Schilling will once again be the most common member of the Red Sox in the media, even in retirement.
24.) Bert Blyleven, Barry Larkin, and Roberto Alomar will be elected to the Hall of Fame, but no first-timers will be eligible (look out for Jeff Bagwell in a few years, but otherwise it's a weak group).
25.) The Texas Rangers will take the title of "surprisingly good pitching" from the Rockies this year.
1.) Brandon Wood hits 18 home runs before the All-Star break, and make the world's best manager look foolish for never playing him regularly.
2.) Pedro Alvarez will make it to the majors by the All-Star break, and will remind everyone how bad Andy LaRoche is.
3.) Phillip Hughes will pitch very well through July, but will start to tire out because he's used to relieving and all the long outings will wear on his arm.
4.) Tommy Hanson's ERA will be over 4.
5.) A.J. Burnett pitches fewer innings than Ben Sheets.
6.) Ben Sheets will not be traded, but the A's will take the draft pick compensation instead.
7.) Ryan Ludwick hits lower than .250
8.) Of all those "top prospects" the Phillies traded, less than half will give a respectable performance at the MLB level this year. I think Michael Taylor and Lou Marson will do well, Drabek, Donald, Knapp, D'Arnoud, and Carrasco will struggle.
9.) Jorge Cantu is traded to an NL West team.
10.) Zero no-hitters will be thrown this year.
11.) One one-hitter will be thrown. It will be by a Met, he will give up the no-no in the bottom of the 9th, with a homerun, to lose the game 1-0. The pitcher will be Oliver Perez. The hitter will be some light hitting second baseman or a backup catcher. This is the reality of being a Mets fan right now, that this scenario seems entirely possible.
12.) The Nationals don't take Bryce Harper with the number one overall pick in the draft.
13.) The Cubs' starting OF of Byrd, Soriano, Fukodome hit less than 50 HR's combined.
14.) The Diamondbacks' OF of Jackson, Young, Upton hit over 75 HR's combined.
15.) Jason Heyward will be sent back to the minors by the end of May.
16.) Scott Feldman wins 13 or more games
17.) Jorge De La Rosa regresses to his normal "great stuff but is too inconsistent to be good all year long."
18.) The current idea of floating divisions will be killed by the owners eventually, but a new idea with more free flow between divisions that in no way has geographical bearing will become popular and gain steam.
19.) The NL will win the All-Star game.
20.) The Rockies win 105 games, win the pennant, but lose the World Series to the Rays.
21.) The Dodgers will be the NL's biggest bust, winning fewer than 85 games.
22.) Tigers' power arm Daniel Schlereth will say something to prove that his father's obnoxious talking runs in the family.
23.) Curt Schilling will once again be the most common member of the Red Sox in the media, even in retirement.
24.) Bert Blyleven, Barry Larkin, and Roberto Alomar will be elected to the Hall of Fame, but no first-timers will be eligible (look out for Jeff Bagwell in a few years, but otherwise it's a weak group).
25.) The Texas Rangers will take the title of "surprisingly good pitching" from the Rockies this year.
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