So this blog entry will be split into two parts, a look back at the 25 randomly bold predictions I made pre-season, and an intense and intricate division-by-division breakdown.
First up:
1.) Brandon Wood hits 18 home runs before the All-Star break, and make the world's best manager look foolish for never playing him regularly. - Brandon Wood has batted .171 with 3 HR's. Whoops! 0-1.
2.) Pedro Alvarez will make it to the majors by the All-Star break, and will remind everyone how bad Andy LaRoche is. - Pedro Alvarez has only hit .214 with 3 homers. But he made it to the majors before the All-Star break, and in a way people have been reminded how bad Andy LaRoche is. 1 for two on predictions, I'm on the baord!
3.) Phillip Hughes will pitch very well through July, but will start to tire out because he's used to relieving and all the long outings will wear on his arm. - Incomplete, because it's only July, but rumors are the Yankees might go trade for a starter with Joba Chamberlain, and send Hughes to the pen to protect his arm. Looks like I'm going to get this one too, but I won't count this one just yet.
4.) Tommy Hanson's ERA will be over 4. - 4.13 ERA. Damn I'm good. 2-3.
5.) A.J. Burnett pitches fewer innings than Ben Sheets. - 112.2 to 107. 3-4.
6.) Ben Sheets will not be traded, but the A's will take the draft pick compensation instead. - Not looking good, as it appears Sheets will not be Type A or Type B, so he will probably be traded. Odds are I lose this one. 3-5.
7.) Ryan Ludwick hits lower than .250. - .273. Crap. 3-6.
8.) Of all those "top prospects" the Phillies traded, less than half will give a respectable performance at the MLB level this year. I think Michael Taylor and Lou Marson will do well, Drabek, Donald, Knapp, D'Arnoud, and Carrasco will struggle. - Donald is hitting .274 in 146 AB's. Respectable. Lou Marson is hitting .191 in 141 AB's. Weak sauce. Neither Carrasco or Knapp have made it to the MLB this year. Neither have D'Arnoud or Drabek. Michael Taylor is still in the A's system. That's less than half who haven't even made it to the MLB, let alone play respectably. I won't count the prediction of Marson playing well and Donald not cloud this clear win for me. 4-7.
9.) Jorge Cantu is traded to an NL West team. - Incomplete, trade deadline not passed yet, so it's still possible.
10.) Zero no-hitters will be thrown this year. - Dead wrong, almost laughably so. 4-8.
11.) One one-hitter will be thrown. It will be by a Met, he will give up the no-no in the bottom of the 9th, with a homerun, to lose the game 1-0. The pitcher will be Oliver Perez. The hitter will be some light hitting second baseman or a backup catcher. This is the reality of being a Mets fan right now, that this scenario seems entirely possible. - I lose this one, although it wasn't very serious when I made it, so I'm not going to count it.
12.) The Nationals don't take Bryce Harper with the number one overall pick in the draft. - Wrong. 4-9.
13.) The Cubs' starting OF of Byrd, Soriano, Fukodome hit less than 50 HR's combined. - 32 HR's at the break. Not looking good, but an injury could easily help me win this one, incomplete.
14.) The Diamondbacks' OF of Jackson, Young, Upton hit over 75 HR's combined. - This is tough, as Conor Jackson was traded, which was not anticipated. Upton/Young have 29 HR's combined. I sit at 30 HR's. I will give myself a win if Upton/Young hit more than 30 combined HR's post-All-Star break. As it stands, incomplete.
15.) Jason Heyward will be sent back to the minors by the end of May. -He got hurt in June, but that doesn't count. 4-10.
16.) Scott Feldman wins 13 or more games. - 5 wins at the break, not looking good. 4-11.
17.) Jorge De La Rosa regresses to his normal "great stuff but is too inconsistent to be good all year long." - He got hurt, but wasn't pitching great anyhow before the injury, so I will take this anyhow. 5-12.
18.) The current idea of floating divisions will be killed by the owners eventually, but a new idea with more free flow between divisions that in no way has geographical bearing will become popular and gain steam. - I don't even remember what I meant by this. Doesn't count.
19.) The NL will win the All-Star game. - Damn straight. 6-13.
20.) The Rockies win 105 games, win the pennant, but lose the World Series to the Rays. - Incomplete.
21.) The Dodgers will be the NL's biggest bust, winning fewer than 85 games. - Still have time, but not looking good for me as they sit at 49-39. 6-14.
22.) Tigers' power arm Daniel Schlereth will say something to prove that his father's obnoxious talking runs in the family. - I'm going to take a win on this considering I've heard his Dad say so many dumb things over the course of this year that his son is going to get punished for it here. 7-15.
23.) Curt Schilling will once again be the most common member of the Red Sox in the media, even in retirement. - Made big news with his proclamation that Stephen Strasburg was the best pitcher in baseball before he had even reached the majors yet. Although to his credit, he has been absolutely correct on that statement. 8-16.
24.) Bert Blyleven, Barry Larkin, and Roberto Alomar will be elected to the Hall of Fame, but no first-timers will be eligible (look out for Jeff Bagwell in a few years, but otherwise it's a weak group). - Too far off, incomplete.
25.) The Texas Rangers will take the title of "surprisingly good pitching" from the Rockies this year.- I think it's fair to give them that title based on how well they pitched this year. 9-17. More than half right/seems like they're going to be right.
to be continued...
Wednesday, July 14, 2010
Tuesday, July 6, 2010
Thoughts on the Trade Deadline and All-Star Teams
For a second year in a row, Carlie Manuel blundered his All-Star team selections. I understand he had even less room to wiggle, but there were some huge mistakes on his part. I'm not going to rant on the snubs, because there are too many. But for god sakes, he probably selected the first part-time position player to the All-Star team ever. Omar Infante? REALLY? And then he went and selected two setup men. I understand when mangers select one in the rare occasion, or reward their own as a lifetime achievement award type of thing (the Mike Stanton award as I like to call it), but Arthur Rhodes and Evan Meek? Wow. Just wow.
The trade deadline is fast, fast approaching, and Cliff Lee still dominates the trade rumors. Let's get this straight, he's getting traded, and he's going for at least one top 50 prospect, but not much more. The C.C. Sabathia price if you will. I'm betting on the Twins trading Wilson Ramos for him, he's the definition of a blocked prospect after the Twins locked up Mauer this offseason. Mets have a shot if the Twins don't like the price and think Wilmer Flores is a legit future star. The Tigers, Reds, and Angels could also be potential suitors.
The trade deadline is fast, fast approaching, and Cliff Lee still dominates the trade rumors. Let's get this straight, he's getting traded, and he's going for at least one top 50 prospect, but not much more. The C.C. Sabathia price if you will. I'm betting on the Twins trading Wilson Ramos for him, he's the definition of a blocked prospect after the Twins locked up Mauer this offseason. Mets have a shot if the Twins don't like the price and think Wilmer Flores is a legit future star. The Tigers, Reds, and Angels could also be potential suitors.
Monday, June 21, 2010
Thoughts on Being a Cruddy Blogger
So I haven't made a post in over a month. And I don't know why I haven't, considering I have so much free time, but oh well.
Biggest story over the past month: Strasburg. I have caught the end of two of his outings on TV, and he's looked disgustingly good. He has the stuff to be the greatest pitcher of the modern era. Those crazy seasons by Pedro may not seem so unique after he's been around for 5 years. The Nationals seem to think they can make a playoff push this year, so they may not be sellers at the deadline (Capps, Willingham, Morgan sticking around probably).
Also notable is the emergence of Delmon Young. It took a few more years to happen than it should've, but he seems to have turned a corner.
Alex Rios has been ridiculously good this year, although one wouldn't trust him to keep this up all year.
Pedro Alvarez and Mike Stanton, probably the 3rd and 4th best prospects heading into this year, have both been promoted. Pirates cut Iwamura and LaRoche is moving to 2nd to make room.
The Mets have benefited greatly from R.A. Dickey and Takahashi replacing Maine and Perez in the rotation. They also just sent down Jenrry Mejia to work on being a starter. With the return of Igarashi to the bullpen, Mejia isn't needed as much. However, the Mets bullpen isn't exactly blanking the scoreboard. Feliciano and K-Rod have been great all year, but Nieve especially, among others, has struggled. But one wonders if Mejia will see the majors again this year, with the rotation seemingly set with Santana, Pelfrey, Niese, Takahashi, and Dickey, and Perez/Maine spending time on the DL with "injuries."
The Al East has evolved into a very tight race, with the Yankees streaking into a one-game lead over both the Red Sox and Rays, the latter of whom has been atop the division most of the year. Gotta hand it to Boston for staying tough when they struggled early, and for putting up an impressive showing against Ubaldo Jimenez tonight.
Fredi Gonzalez was fired because the Marlins aren't winning the NL East. In case you haven't noticed, their owner thinks their team is stocked with talent, and should have won the NL East the last three years, not the Phillies. Earth to Jeffry Loria, you have started Cameron Maybin, Cody Ross, Jeremy Hermida, etc. for long extended periods of time. The best first baseman you've had is Gaby Sanchez, your best catcher has been Miguel Olivo, and your starting pitching as a whole has been inconsistent at best and your most consistent closer has been Kevin Gregg. This is not a formula for winning division titles! Rumor is that they're going after Bobby Valentine for their new manager. I'll be bitter when that hapeens, Bobby V is my favorite manager, and I wish he was still on the Mets. Fredi Gonzalez will find another job, jsut like Joe Girardi, and he will undoubtedly be at least a good manager.
Biggest story over the past month: Strasburg. I have caught the end of two of his outings on TV, and he's looked disgustingly good. He has the stuff to be the greatest pitcher of the modern era. Those crazy seasons by Pedro may not seem so unique after he's been around for 5 years. The Nationals seem to think they can make a playoff push this year, so they may not be sellers at the deadline (Capps, Willingham, Morgan sticking around probably).
Also notable is the emergence of Delmon Young. It took a few more years to happen than it should've, but he seems to have turned a corner.
Alex Rios has been ridiculously good this year, although one wouldn't trust him to keep this up all year.
Pedro Alvarez and Mike Stanton, probably the 3rd and 4th best prospects heading into this year, have both been promoted. Pirates cut Iwamura and LaRoche is moving to 2nd to make room.
The Mets have benefited greatly from R.A. Dickey and Takahashi replacing Maine and Perez in the rotation. They also just sent down Jenrry Mejia to work on being a starter. With the return of Igarashi to the bullpen, Mejia isn't needed as much. However, the Mets bullpen isn't exactly blanking the scoreboard. Feliciano and K-Rod have been great all year, but Nieve especially, among others, has struggled. But one wonders if Mejia will see the majors again this year, with the rotation seemingly set with Santana, Pelfrey, Niese, Takahashi, and Dickey, and Perez/Maine spending time on the DL with "injuries."
The Al East has evolved into a very tight race, with the Yankees streaking into a one-game lead over both the Red Sox and Rays, the latter of whom has been atop the division most of the year. Gotta hand it to Boston for staying tough when they struggled early, and for putting up an impressive showing against Ubaldo Jimenez tonight.
Fredi Gonzalez was fired because the Marlins aren't winning the NL East. In case you haven't noticed, their owner thinks their team is stocked with talent, and should have won the NL East the last three years, not the Phillies. Earth to Jeffry Loria, you have started Cameron Maybin, Cody Ross, Jeremy Hermida, etc. for long extended periods of time. The best first baseman you've had is Gaby Sanchez, your best catcher has been Miguel Olivo, and your starting pitching as a whole has been inconsistent at best and your most consistent closer has been Kevin Gregg. This is not a formula for winning division titles! Rumor is that they're going after Bobby Valentine for their new manager. I'll be bitter when that hapeens, Bobby V is my favorite manager, and I wish he was still on the Mets. Fredi Gonzalez will find another job, jsut like Joe Girardi, and he will undoubtedly be at least a good manager.
Thursday, May 13, 2010
Thoughts of Various Natures
Now's as good as time as ever to spout out some random thoughts division by division. Let's start in everyone's least favorite division the AL East.
AL East - What? The Rays are in first place a month into the season? No way! Yes way, what I've always said is the most talented roster in the majors has finally put it all together and are just trying to hold off the Yankees in attempt to capture another division crown. I don't understand what makes the Yankees so good, but maybe it's when the nobodies step in when the stars go down or aren't producing. See Brett Gardner. The Red Sox are called a mess, but are still one game over .500 and not even 5 games out and the season's just over a month old, so they have plenty of time to catch up. Toronto's played well, but that won't be happening much longer. Nice to see Travis Snider coming along.
AL Central - I don't understand the Twins. They have Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, and a bunch of other good but not great players. Jason Kubel's has to play better for them though. And Delmon Young is actually hitting above average for a corner outfielder, which I was beginning to think will never happen. Tigers are staying close, and Justin Verlander isn't even pitching well yet, not to mention Scherzer or Porcello pitching like they should have never graduated from High-A ball. And Kansas City is still bad, at least Mike Aviles is looking good for them, even if it looks like they've given up on Alex Gordon.
AL West - If I'm the Angels, and I'm 6 games under .500, I'm not still starting Brandon Wood. I don't know why he's not hitting, but he's not, and it's making me look stupid. For as you can remember from March 1st:
NL East - No team is more than 4.5 games out of first. Every team except Washington has spent time in first place since April 7th, and even they have spent some time in 2nd, and if I'm right, are over .500 in May for the first time in a few years. I still got the Mets for first, although Carlos Beltran back before the All-Star break is looking less likely. By 2012, Ike Davis will be known as the best first-baseman in the NL East. Washington was just planning to bide some time until Strasburg showed up, and it looks like they're doing that. It'd be really crazy if they're still in it a month from now, and he swings the whole race.
NL Central - Cincinnati is tied for first with St. Louis, and that also corresponds with Joey Votto finally coming around. Not exactly a surprise. This team will hit, but more than likely their abysmal starting pitching will keep them out of it. The league's most boring division, there's really not much to say here.
NL West - The division standings are almost flip-flopped from what I thought they would be. But some things are apparent -- Dodgers just aren't that good, Arizona needs some pitching, and Webb to hurry back, Colorado refuses to play consistently, San Francisco can really pitch, and hits just a little better than last year, and San Diego's surprised me, because I don't' see a whole lot of talent on that roster, and this is after they traded Jake Peavy away. Maybe they should trade Adrian Gonzalez away too, it might turn them into a 95-win team. On second thought don't. But what this start means is that they're less likely to trade him away midseason.
AL East - What? The Rays are in first place a month into the season? No way! Yes way, what I've always said is the most talented roster in the majors has finally put it all together and are just trying to hold off the Yankees in attempt to capture another division crown. I don't understand what makes the Yankees so good, but maybe it's when the nobodies step in when the stars go down or aren't producing. See Brett Gardner. The Red Sox are called a mess, but are still one game over .500 and not even 5 games out and the season's just over a month old, so they have plenty of time to catch up. Toronto's played well, but that won't be happening much longer. Nice to see Travis Snider coming along.
AL Central - I don't understand the Twins. They have Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, and a bunch of other good but not great players. Jason Kubel's has to play better for them though. And Delmon Young is actually hitting above average for a corner outfielder, which I was beginning to think will never happen. Tigers are staying close, and Justin Verlander isn't even pitching well yet, not to mention Scherzer or Porcello pitching like they should have never graduated from High-A ball. And Kansas City is still bad, at least Mike Aviles is looking good for them, even if it looks like they've given up on Alex Gordon.
AL West - If I'm the Angels, and I'm 6 games under .500, I'm not still starting Brandon Wood. I don't know why he's not hitting, but he's not, and it's making me look stupid. For as you can remember from March 1st:
" 1.) Brandon Wood hits 18 home runs before the All-Star break, and make the world's best manager look foolish for never playing him regularly. "Whoops! The Rangers are neck and neck with the Texas Rangers for first place. And Dallas Braden pitched a perfect game. Suck it A-Rod. No really though, to be frank, Braden doesn't know Rodriguez, so the attack on him being a bad teammate isn't fair, and he pitched a fit about something that's really not that big of a deal in baseball. No, you're not supposed to step on the mound, but it's not like it's one of the ten commandments of baseball. If you're really angry, throw at his head the next time he comes up, but trying to start this feud in the media is ridiculous. Kudos to Rodriguez for continually taking the high road.
NL East - No team is more than 4.5 games out of first. Every team except Washington has spent time in first place since April 7th, and even they have spent some time in 2nd, and if I'm right, are over .500 in May for the first time in a few years. I still got the Mets for first, although Carlos Beltran back before the All-Star break is looking less likely. By 2012, Ike Davis will be known as the best first-baseman in the NL East. Washington was just planning to bide some time until Strasburg showed up, and it looks like they're doing that. It'd be really crazy if they're still in it a month from now, and he swings the whole race.
NL Central - Cincinnati is tied for first with St. Louis, and that also corresponds with Joey Votto finally coming around. Not exactly a surprise. This team will hit, but more than likely their abysmal starting pitching will keep them out of it. The league's most boring division, there's really not much to say here.
NL West - The division standings are almost flip-flopped from what I thought they would be. But some things are apparent -- Dodgers just aren't that good, Arizona needs some pitching, and Webb to hurry back, Colorado refuses to play consistently, San Francisco can really pitch, and hits just a little better than last year, and San Diego's surprised me, because I don't' see a whole lot of talent on that roster, and this is after they traded Jake Peavy away. Maybe they should trade Adrian Gonzalez away too, it might turn them into a 95-win team. On second thought don't. But what this start means is that they're less likely to trade him away midseason.
Friday, May 7, 2010
Thoughts on Starlin Castro
In what's probably the biggest callup since Justin Smoak, the Cubs called up Starlin Castro to play short. I don't want to sound overdramatic, but the Cubs' next 5-10 ride on this guy. The Cubs haven't really had a great SS in over a decade, trying everything from Ronny Cedeno to trading for Nomar from the Sox to Ryan "The Riot" Theriot. While Theriot is seemingly fit to pay the position, Starlin Castro could be the star they've been searching for.
For the Cubs, it's important for Castro to be their next star, but if he ends up just being borderline All-Star, that'd be acceptable. All of the Cubs' starpower is old or aging fast, and they need some youth or they will be forced to invest in more expensive free agents, that are probably older, because most prime free agents aren't reaching free agency until later in their careers, and thus it'll become increasingly difficult to sustain this run of relative success they've had most of the decade.
But Aramis Ramirez, Derrek Lee, Carlos Zambrano, and Alfonso Soriano aren't trending up, and a changing of the guard is in order. With his impressive debut today, Castro looks like he could be the first step in rejuvenating all the old guys.
For the Cubs, it's important for Castro to be their next star, but if he ends up just being borderline All-Star, that'd be acceptable. All of the Cubs' starpower is old or aging fast, and they need some youth or they will be forced to invest in more expensive free agents, that are probably older, because most prime free agents aren't reaching free agency until later in their careers, and thus it'll become increasingly difficult to sustain this run of relative success they've had most of the decade.
But Aramis Ramirez, Derrek Lee, Carlos Zambrano, and Alfonso Soriano aren't trending up, and a changing of the guard is in order. With his impressive debut today, Castro looks like he could be the first step in rejuvenating all the old guys.
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