End of the season awards are always the toughest to predict. Individual performance varies from year to year, and there's often a correlation between the awards and the success of the team. So most of these will be shots in the dark.
AL Cy Young - Felix Hernandez - this guy is ridiculous, his performance last year would win a Cy Young nearly any other year this decade. But Zack Greinke went all late 90's Pedro Martinez on the AL. And Felix still almost won it anyhow. Chances on repeating 2009's success? I personally like Felix's better.
AL MVP - Evan Longoria - This is usually the toughest to predict. Hell, Pedroia won one when the BoSox won the division. I want to go with a player from the team with best record, which I think will be the Red Sox, but the candidate for that team with a legitimate shot I think is Kevin Youkilis, and my gut feels that isn't right. I don't see a candidate on the other two division winners, but my projected wildcard winner has Evan Longoria, who's a true superstar who shouldn't have trouble gathering votes.
NL Cy Young - Johan Santana - The Mets are going to be a media hit for their comeback this year, and Johan Santana is going to put up a Cy Young season and he's going to win the award he should have won two years ago.
NL MVP - David Wright - The same line of thinking. Wright's going to have a comeback year and also win an award he should have won a few years back. If the Mets or Wright falter, look for Pujols to win again.
AL Rookie of the Year - Brett Wallace - I don't like doubting Billy Beane when he clearly likes a player.
NL Rookie of the Year - Stephen Strasburg - He'll be up by June 1st and he's going to show everyone what the hype is all about.
Saturday, February 27, 2010
Monday, February 22, 2010
Thoughts on a Season Preview - Standings
As the offseason seems to be winding down, spring training is starting, and rosters are settling, it's time to set up my pre-season predictions. Most importantly, it's time to predict end of the season standings, perhaps the most volatile of all predictions. Too many factors can swing and radically alter the end results (for example, Yankee Stadium being a launching pad, the Mets filling an entire hospital with injured players, Cubs falling apart for no reason [although that's nothing new]).
AL East
1.) Red Sox - Improved by a few wins by adding some defense to offset the loss of Jason Bay's offense.
2.) Rays - A lot of stats are pointing at the Rays being unlucky in the W-L column last year.
3.) Yankees - Everything went right last year, it's always harder to get the 2nd title in two years.
4.) Orioles - Young core getting better, young pitching finally will reach the Bigs and contribute.
5.) Blue Jays - Not much talent here, although a re-newed commitment to scouting could pay dividends in 5 years.
I was adamant last year when I said the Rays had the most talent in the MLB. And on paper, not much has changed, except instead of Kazmir, they have Wade Davis, David Price has a full year of starting experience in the MLB, and Desmond Jennings and Jeremy Hellickson should be able to contribute this year as well. Oh, and they added a closer, they could easily take first place in this division. The Red Sox are a first class organization that's great at filling holes, they upgraded or provided a suitable replacement everywhere on the diamond this offseason. It's so hard to repeat, and this Yankees team isn't as deep offensively as it was last year, and it also keeps getting older. Realistically, one could make good arguments for putting the Sox, Rays, and Yanks in any order of #1-3, although I think the Rays and Bosox will both definitely finish in first or second.
AL Central
1.) Tigers - Almost won the division last year until blowing it in the last week. But it's hard to say whether this team actually got any better from last year.
2.) Twins - How did this team win the division last year? How?
3.) White Sox - A full year out of Gordon Beckham will help this team out, but it's really time for this team to rebuild drastically.
4.) Indians - Would finish 4th or 5th in any AL division.
5.) Royals - Zack Greinke can't pitch every game, and Billy Butler can't take every AB.
This is the worst division in the MLB, bar none. None of these teams would finish any better than 2nd in any other MLB division. Tigers have the most upside with Verlander/Porcello/Scherzer/Bonderman/Galaragga in the rotation, and adding both Johnny Damon and Austin Jackson to play in the OF (although Austin Jackson might not be ready). This division is full of teams needing to rebuilt/actually build. Dayton Moore, Royals GM, reminds me of Isiah Thomas. He knows what he wants to do, and he has good intentions. But his execution of his vision is horrendous, and sucking the Royals dry of talent.
AL West
1.) Athletics - Lots of pitching here. Watch out. I frankly don't care that they hit abysmally.
2.) Angels - Mike Sciosia will squeeze 85 wins out of this team. Playing Brandon Wood regularly would help.
3.) Mariners- Got real, real lucky last year. But they didn't really improve their roster over last year.
4.) Rangers- Elvis Andrus has to hit a little more this year. Neftali Perez needs to show he can start. But might not get out of this division's basement, even if they have a winning record.
This is the year's biggest crapshoot. I'd hate to bet against the league's best manager who still has a decent level of talent. The Athletics are sneaky good. Mariners had a great offseason, but lost enough talent that the talent they added is mostly negated. Rangers still need more pitching. Badly.
Wildcard: Rays
NL East
1.) Mets - Probably a lot of bias here, but this is essentially an even better team than the one SI picked to win the World Series last year.
2.) Phillies - Sustained the level of talent from last year. But everything went right for them in 2009. It would really help if Cole Hamels' new breaking pitch is any good.
3.) Braves - Will pitch themselves into third, but can't hit at all.
4.) Marlins - This team can pitch a little, and can hit a little, but neither extremely well.
5.) Nationals - Better than last year, but still the worst team in this division.
This division will come down to the Mets and Phillies again. I just think it's more likely that the Mets don't lose $100 million in payroll than for Raul Ibanez, Jayson Werth, J.A. Happ, and others to play that much over their head again.
NL Central
1.) Cardinals - Pujols/Holliday/Rasmus in one batting order scares me. Scares me enough that I forget about nearly 80% of the roster.
2.) Reds - So much young talent.
3.) Brewers - Some elite talent carrying a lot of otherwise average players.
4.) Cubs - Similar to their Chi-city counterparts, they also need to rebuild, bad.
5.) Astros - Nothing much to say, probably the most uninteresting team in the majors.
6.) Pirates - I've seen Garrett Jones play, he's a AAAA player.
This is a two team race. Reds should hit better than the Cards, but might not have enough pitching to match Dave Duncan's brilliance. Brewers might surprise, but unlikely to take the division.
NL West
1.) Rockies - A full season of non-Clint Hurdle management (although Jim Tracy doesn't exactly set the world on fire).
2.) D-Backs - I'm expecting a bigger year out of Drew, another huge year from Reynolds, and a healthy Webb makes the front of the rotation potentially scary with Haren/Webb/Edwin Jackson.
3.)Dodgers - Torre once again proved he's the most overrated manager in the majors as he pulled his best SP from the rotation at the end of last year.
4.) Giants - an average team, with the best 1-2 SP punch in the NL
5.) Padres - I don't know if I can even name 5 players on this team anymore.
The Rockies are the NL's best team, it's a shame Huston Street and Brad Lidge switched bodies in the playoffs last year. The divorce of the McCourt's is killing the Dodgers, who all of a sudden can't hand out such stupid contracts as Andruw Jone's $18 million a year debacle. The Diamondbacks could contend for the wildcard easily, and if they get anything from Stephen Drew, Chris Young, and Ian Kennedy they could take the division
Wildcard: Reds - The 2nd place finisher in the NL East will just miss first, but as in recent years past, the division will beat up on itself too much to allow its 2nd place finisher to make the playoffs.
AL East
1.) Red Sox - Improved by a few wins by adding some defense to offset the loss of Jason Bay's offense.
2.) Rays - A lot of stats are pointing at the Rays being unlucky in the W-L column last year.
3.) Yankees - Everything went right last year, it's always harder to get the 2nd title in two years.
4.) Orioles - Young core getting better, young pitching finally will reach the Bigs and contribute.
5.) Blue Jays - Not much talent here, although a re-newed commitment to scouting could pay dividends in 5 years.
I was adamant last year when I said the Rays had the most talent in the MLB. And on paper, not much has changed, except instead of Kazmir, they have Wade Davis, David Price has a full year of starting experience in the MLB, and Desmond Jennings and Jeremy Hellickson should be able to contribute this year as well. Oh, and they added a closer, they could easily take first place in this division. The Red Sox are a first class organization that's great at filling holes, they upgraded or provided a suitable replacement everywhere on the diamond this offseason. It's so hard to repeat, and this Yankees team isn't as deep offensively as it was last year, and it also keeps getting older. Realistically, one could make good arguments for putting the Sox, Rays, and Yanks in any order of #1-3, although I think the Rays and Bosox will both definitely finish in first or second.
AL Central
1.) Tigers - Almost won the division last year until blowing it in the last week. But it's hard to say whether this team actually got any better from last year.
2.) Twins - How did this team win the division last year? How?
3.) White Sox - A full year out of Gordon Beckham will help this team out, but it's really time for this team to rebuild drastically.
4.) Indians - Would finish 4th or 5th in any AL division.
5.) Royals - Zack Greinke can't pitch every game, and Billy Butler can't take every AB.
This is the worst division in the MLB, bar none. None of these teams would finish any better than 2nd in any other MLB division. Tigers have the most upside with Verlander/Porcello/Scherzer/Bonderman/Galaragga in the rotation, and adding both Johnny Damon and Austin Jackson to play in the OF (although Austin Jackson might not be ready). This division is full of teams needing to rebuilt/actually build. Dayton Moore, Royals GM, reminds me of Isiah Thomas. He knows what he wants to do, and he has good intentions. But his execution of his vision is horrendous, and sucking the Royals dry of talent.
AL West
1.) Athletics - Lots of pitching here. Watch out. I frankly don't care that they hit abysmally.
2.) Angels - Mike Sciosia will squeeze 85 wins out of this team. Playing Brandon Wood regularly would help.
3.) Mariners- Got real, real lucky last year. But they didn't really improve their roster over last year.
4.) Rangers- Elvis Andrus has to hit a little more this year. Neftali Perez needs to show he can start. But might not get out of this division's basement, even if they have a winning record.
This is the year's biggest crapshoot. I'd hate to bet against the league's best manager who still has a decent level of talent. The Athletics are sneaky good. Mariners had a great offseason, but lost enough talent that the talent they added is mostly negated. Rangers still need more pitching. Badly.
Wildcard: Rays
NL East
1.) Mets - Probably a lot of bias here, but this is essentially an even better team than the one SI picked to win the World Series last year.
2.) Phillies - Sustained the level of talent from last year. But everything went right for them in 2009. It would really help if Cole Hamels' new breaking pitch is any good.
3.) Braves - Will pitch themselves into third, but can't hit at all.
4.) Marlins - This team can pitch a little, and can hit a little, but neither extremely well.
5.) Nationals - Better than last year, but still the worst team in this division.
This division will come down to the Mets and Phillies again. I just think it's more likely that the Mets don't lose $100 million in payroll than for Raul Ibanez, Jayson Werth, J.A. Happ, and others to play that much over their head again.
NL Central
1.) Cardinals - Pujols/Holliday/Rasmus in one batting order scares me. Scares me enough that I forget about nearly 80% of the roster.
2.) Reds - So much young talent.
3.) Brewers - Some elite talent carrying a lot of otherwise average players.
4.) Cubs - Similar to their Chi-city counterparts, they also need to rebuild, bad.
5.) Astros - Nothing much to say, probably the most uninteresting team in the majors.
6.) Pirates - I've seen Garrett Jones play, he's a AAAA player.
This is a two team race. Reds should hit better than the Cards, but might not have enough pitching to match Dave Duncan's brilliance. Brewers might surprise, but unlikely to take the division.
NL West
1.) Rockies - A full season of non-Clint Hurdle management (although Jim Tracy doesn't exactly set the world on fire).
2.) D-Backs - I'm expecting a bigger year out of Drew, another huge year from Reynolds, and a healthy Webb makes the front of the rotation potentially scary with Haren/Webb/Edwin Jackson.
3.)Dodgers - Torre once again proved he's the most overrated manager in the majors as he pulled his best SP from the rotation at the end of last year.
4.) Giants - an average team, with the best 1-2 SP punch in the NL
5.) Padres - I don't know if I can even name 5 players on this team anymore.
The Rockies are the NL's best team, it's a shame Huston Street and Brad Lidge switched bodies in the playoffs last year. The divorce of the McCourt's is killing the Dodgers, who all of a sudden can't hand out such stupid contracts as Andruw Jone's $18 million a year debacle. The Diamondbacks could contend for the wildcard easily, and if they get anything from Stephen Drew, Chris Young, and Ian Kennedy they could take the division
Wildcard: Reds - The 2nd place finisher in the NL East will just miss first, but as in recent years past, the division will beat up on itself too much to allow its 2nd place finisher to make the playoffs.
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