Thoughts on Jason Bay to the Mets

The Mets nabbed their prime Leftfield target this offseason, Jason Bay, for what seems like a reasonable price (around $16 million a year for four years, plus a vesting option for a fifth year).

Positives in this deal: Mets needed a power hitting outfielder, Jason Bay is a .520 career slugger. The Mets didn't overpay really, and Jason Bay's played in a big market so New York shouldn't phase him. He's averaged 154 games played over the last 5 seasons, and the Mets badly needed a player who would stay healthy.

Negatives: Mets didn't have much competition, so did they really need to include this 5th year vesting option that supposedly vests easily? Did they bid against themselves again? He's already 31, so he will be 35 or 36 when this deal ends. He's a poor fielder, and the outfield in Citifield's huge. Matt Holliday would have cost around $10 million more, and would probably be a better value.

Final Thought: Hard to argue against an outfielder with a .900 career OPS. And the Mets with a plus defender in Rightfield (Francoeur and/or Fernando Martinez) and the best centerfielder in the game should be able to overcome his shortcomings in left. And maybe some of his homers in Citifield turn back into doubles, but worse things have happened.

Thoughts on Trading with the Evil Empire

Often people complain about how the Yankees never stop getting better. Certainly, the $200 million payroll helps. And attracting players with the promise of winning, money, and tradition is no difficult task. The Yankees strive for excellence unlike any team in sports. They exist in a time where they can't just buy a bunch of players and expect them to fit together and win (remember the years of a rotation featuring Carl Pavano, Jaret Wright, Kevin Brown, as well as the oldest and slowest lineup in the majors?).

But they've gotten smarter, and better, and have a new commitment to winning. The Yankees capped off a World Series win by trying to get both younger and better. They've added Curtis Granderson and Javier Vasquez, replacing the departed Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui.

Now are these moves perfect? No. Curtis Granderson certainly has his drawbacks as a hitter, and Javier Vasquez is possibly one of the most maddeningly inconsistent pitchers maybe ever. But if they work perfectly, it can be expected that the Yankees might be ever better in 2010.

But when a pitcher with a sub 3 ERA and a high K rate is traded for a defense-first centerfielder who isn't even that talented of a defender, no one has any right to complain. Teams aren't even figuratively handing the Yankees wins when they do things like this, they are now literally doing it! Javier Vasquez had much more value than Melky Cabrera, no matter how one looks at it (the prospect dealt along with Melky Cabrera is supposedly nothing special either).

If teams want to stop the Yankees, block their moves, offer more money, be more aggressive. The offseason is a game of simple competitive economics, and it's time everyone started playing it.

Oh, and if anyone things the Yankees are starting next year with Brett Gardner as their starting leftfielder, they are sadly mistaken. The Yankees aren't done yet.

Thoughts on Jason Marquis Signing with the Nats

In a surprise move, Jason Marquis has decided to accept a two year deal with the Washington Nationals for $7.5 million a year. He apparently likes the idea of mentoring a young staff including Jordan Zimmerman and Stephen Strasburg.

I was convinced (as nearly everyone else was) that he was headed to the Mets. But the Mets dragging their feet the whole offseason has grown a tired act, and Marquis wasn't interested in waiting and took some money.

Good move for the Nationals, this is the best they're going to do in free agency this year.

The Mets missed out on an average pitcher. There's still some left, and probably aren't as expensive. (Really, they should just sign Ben Sheets and Erik Bedard, Pedro Martinez, assuming they combine for about 250 IP, they're all pretty cheap and there's no one on the market worth signing long term).

Thoughts on Milton Bradley

In a bad contract swap. The Mariners took Milton Bradley in exchange for the nightmare contract of Carlos Silva.

This makes tons of sense for the Mariners. They added a DH who can play left field on occasion. They got rid of the remaining of the worst contract in Seattle history.

Only drawback is that this DH's name is Milton Bradley, a man who ran himself out of town. Will he be a good guy like he was in Texas? Or a train wreck like in Chicago?

This makes very little sense for the Cubs, except they got rid of Bradley. Silva is a terrible pitcher in any league.

There is no winner for either team. But the Mariners may potentially pull out well, assuming he can be happy for 2 years in Seattle. The Cubs are more than happy to dump him, it'd be a PR disaster if they didn't.

Thoughts on Lackey and Halladay

John Lackey is headed to Boston Red Sox for a deal slightly larger than A.J. Burnett's last season. When Jason Bay started to look like he wasn't coming back, they had money to spend. After missing out on Teixeira last year, and now Bay, they have some free cash. This signing may or may not prohibit them from pursuing Matt Holliday.

Roy Halladay was traded to the Phillies, and the trade also pushes Cliff Lee to the Mariners. The Phillies also trade away two of their top three prospects (Kyle Drabek and Michael Taylor), as well as one of their other better ones, to the Phillies, and receive the hard throwing Phillipe Aumont from Seattle.

Does this make the Phillies a better team? Slightly. Halladay is a slightly better pitcher than Lee, and they are going to sign him to a smaller extension than Lee will demand. Halladay is a year older, so that's a slight loss, but the guarantee that they will have Halladay beyond this season is a huge gain for them.

But Michael Taylor and Kyke Drabek are a pretty steep cost. And while Halladay won't want a contract comparable to what he'd get as a free agent after this season, his discounted contract will probably end up around the contract that Cliff Lee would have demanded. So this relative money savings comes at the cost of Michael Taylor, which isn't that great of a price for the Phillies.

And Phillipe Aumont plus some unknown strong, but note elite prospects is a pretty good price for Cliff Lee, or at least comparable to what the Phillies paid for him last July. So the Mariners get a win for him, and they probably have money to sign him for an extension if they so choose. Did the Blue Jays get a fair return for Halladay? Yeah. The Phillies made a bold move here, and have successfully traded 6 of their top 7 prospects since July.

Now this leaves one to wonder, why didn't the Phillies make a similar deal to this back in July? Wouldn't a rotation led by Halladay virtually guarantee them a World Series?

To me, Aumont is the best prospect moved in this deal. I remember seeing him pitch at the World Baseball Classic, and was wowed by how good he was. I like him more than Drabek (although I'm probably in the minority here).

However, a once overrated top-heavy farm system is in danger of being near barren. They have two blue-chippers, and no depth. And the worry about Aumont is that he might be a reliever and not a starter, in which case, his value is a lot lower. On the other hand, he can close instead of Lidge if Lidge falters again.

Thoughts on Peter Gammons

Back when I was in high school, I admired and revered Peter Gammons. He was my hero. I wanted to be him. Long given up my professional baseball dreams, I merely wanted to learn as much as I could about the game, to be the smartest source of baseball knowledge there was, and to be able to put it into text eloquently.

So I listened and read with the utmost attention to everything he wrote and said. I researched him, I even applied to wear he went to college (UNC), figuring that whatever school he went to must be great to turn out a talent such as he.

Well now I'm not studying journalism, let alone sports journalism. All I have is this ill-read baseball blog mostly for my own use, and not much else. But my dee p respect for Peter Gammons remains undaunted. There was never a better baseball analyst/reporter, and he's largely credited for revolutionizing the field of baseball journalism.

He never blurred the lines between reporting and color commentary, as too many baseball journalist do today, but was able to talk eloquently on both fronts. He was notoriously a gentleman, a man liked by executives, players, and reporters alike.

I'm a good writer, but not a great one. And it's not like I know Gammons personally. So it's hard to convey how someone who doesn't know I exist means so much me. I wish I could write a column like the one Buster Olney wrote below:

http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?entryID=4733669&name=olney_buster&action=upsell&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fespn%2fblog%2findex%3fentryID%3d4733669%26name%3dolney_buster

No, he's not leaving the game entirely, but the fact is that it will take quite the individual to fill his shoes, and right not, baseball feels a little empty without his ubiquitous words.

Thoughts on Rafael Soriano

As predicted, the Braves couldn't really afford Rafael Soriano after signing Wagner and Saito, so they had to trade one. Right now, it looks like he's headed to Tampa Bay, probably to close. The Braves were really hoping to grab draft pick compensation from Rafael Soriano signing with someone else. However, they could have done worse, as they most likely get Jesse Chavez in return. This is really a win-win trade. The Braves were able to shed the money, and pick up a decent arm in return, the Rays grab a potential closer for a reasonable salary without having to forfeit a draft pick to his former team.

Thoughts on Correcting the Blog from Last Night

I said Latroy Hawkins was headed to Houston. Well my source was wrong, he's headed to Milwaukee where he won't close (Trevor Hoffman is continuing his Hall of Fame stats there). Much better move on both sides.

Instead, Matt Lindstrom was traded to the Astros where he'll probably close. While he had a high ERA last year, as a closer, he didn't blow many saves, showing the grit to be a closer. This could be a good fit for him.

Thoughts on Winter Meetings Thusfar

Ok, so a bunch of stuff for me to talk about today.

First, in a less-serious thought, C.J. Wilson twittered that he was offended that the Dbacks would even offer Chris Snyder for him. C.J. Wilson obviously didn't realize that Chris Snyder has a lot of value because he hit well (for a catcher) two years ago, and most people are marking up last years problems to injuries. Wilson also must think a lot of himself, it's not as if he's even a tier 2 reliever.

Second, in what's the most tragic move of the day, the Yankees are set to acquire Curtis Granderson in a 3 way deal between the Yanks, the D-Backs and Tigers. This makes the Yankees even more of a likable team. I don't know what world other baseball fans grew up in, but I grew up in a baseball world where the Yankees played as if they were from a military squad: without emotion, without guts, and without character. They always seemed more a group of individuals rather than a team. But the addition of yet another character guy, this Yankees team gets even scarier. Make no mistake, Curtis Granderson is a good, not great player, but he bats leftie and can give them a Melky Cabrera like glove with a bat to replace Damon.

This trade makes sense for the Yankees, they are in a win now move, Austin Jackson isn't quite ready yet, and Ian Kennedy needs to figure a few things out. Neither player will be missed much. For the D-backs, this is slightly confusing. Yes, Edwin Jackson has proven to be a good pitcher, but right now, Scherzer isn't that much worse. And Scherzer has two or three more years of team control over him than Jackson. For the Tigers, this makes sense. They got a great young starter, a great outfield prospect, and a few other average players with plenty of team control, all while shedding payroll.

In other news, Latroy Hawkins is looking like the next closer for the Astros. Hawkins? Closer? Hasn't he proven 10894712 times over that he is incapable of being a full-time closer?

Brad Penny is going to sign a one year deal with Cardinals for too much money. If he pitches 204 innings, he gets $9 million, and $7.5 if they don't. Again, too much money for a guy who didn't pitch well last year.

Lot's of other stuff I could talk about, but I'm not going to waste time on every speculated rumor this year.

And twitter overload much baseball writers?

Braves sign Saito

Atlanta Braves just made another splash on the free agent market, signing Takashi Saito to a one year contract.

This is a low-cost, low risk signing for the Atlanta Braves, who've now successfully replaced both Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano in their bullpen. The only really problem they run at this point is if both Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano accept arbitration. Yes the bullpen would be good, but it'd cost them over $20 million to employ all 4.

In all reality though, the chances of one of those two, let alone both, returns is very low.

Thoughts on Polanco and Wagner signings

The Atlanta Braves immediately addressed one of their pertinent needs this offseason as they signed probable future Hall-of-Fame closer Billy Wagner to a one year deal at a fairly reasonable price.

Any way you look at it, the Braves put themselves in a good situation this offseason. They offered both Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez arbitration, meaning even if they sign elsewhere, they will receive draft picks compensating those they lost signing Billy Wagner. If they accept arbitration, they have a great back of the bullpen featuring 3 guys who can close games.

And today, the Phillies signed a familiar face, Placido Polanco, once traded to them for Scott Rolen. Realistically, they traded stronger defense for a marginal offensive upgrade, at a price that ties them up for 3 years with a 34 year old third baseman. They must have decided players such as Mark DeRosa and Adrian Beltre were too expensive. But they didn't even sign Polanco to that cheap of a contract. The only real advantage to signing Polanco is that they didn't have to forfeit a draft pick.

Thoughts on Annual Awards

I could write a 1000 word essay on how bad the Gold Gloves are. On average, about 3 choices per league are correct or strongly, strongly defensible. But otherwise, the awards this year were pretty on the money, but it's not as if they were particularly contentious races either.

Alber Pujols and Joe Mauer each won MVP's by near unanimous margins. Rightfully so.

Zack Greinke won the AL Cy Young after being nearly unhittable. Perfect choice.

Tim Lincecum won the NL Cy Young and deserv....errrr....what? Poor Adam Wainwright got shafted. That makes two Cy Youngs Lincecum's won that he hasn't deserved. Lucky man, BBWAA seems to want to help make him real rich.

Still 3 out of the 4 major awards ain't bad, although admittedly they screwed up the only real difficult choice.

Thoughts on the offseason thusfar

Most years it feels as if not much happens the first week after the World Series. But not this year.

First off, the Phillies declined their option on Pedro Feliz. Feliz is not a spectacular irreplaceable player. But in the "don't fix what ain't broke" category, I think this was a mistake. He was a bargain at $5.5 milllion, providing excellent defense and average offense for a team whose problems weren't offensive related. Philadelphia isn't in the position to splurge in free agency either, needing to lock up Cliff Lee. Third base options include Chone Figgins (probably too expensive), Adrian Beltre (hard to gauge his free agency value), Melvin Mora (not as good as Feliz), and Mark DeRosa (probably too costly as well).

Minnesota acquired J.J. Hardy for Carlos Gomez in what might be a win-win trade. Gomez has shown improvement, albeit gradually, and might be able to put all his tools together and become more than just the raw talent he's shown in the MLB thusfar. Plus he's cheap, and Hardy was expendable with Alcides Escober waiting in the wings. And Gomez was expendable in the Twins outfield, which is full with Delmon Young, Denard Span, Michael Cuddyer, and Jason Kubel among others.

The Pirates acquired Akinori Iwamura for an average relief pitcher (Jesse Chavez). Rays shed money, which is a plus for them, and Iwamura immediately becomes the highest paid player on the Pirates with a salary just under $5 million.

And in what seems to be becoming a yearly tradition for the Red Sox, they acquired a former top outfield prospect (Jeremy Hermida) from a Florida franchise that can't afford him, don't have a spot for him, and are trying to get back what little value the player still has. If B.J. Upton has another poor showing this year, could he be next?

Thoughts on What We Learned This Year

Now that the Yankees have won the World Series, let's take a look back at what we've learned looking back at the entire year.

1.) Money is a huge advantage in the game right now. In a year where dozens of teams expressed concern over the economy, the Yankees spent, spent, spent. They acquired the best starting pitcher, the best hitter, and the 2nd best starting pitcher in last year's free agent market (although A.J. Burnett isn't exactly a stellar pitcher. He's good, but he was closer to the rest of the pack of free agent hurlers then he was to CC Sabathia).

2.) Logic and reason have very little place in predicting how the baseball season plays out. Logic said the Rockies were the best team entering the NL playoffs. Huston Street turns into Luis Ayala, and all of a sudden the Rockies lose to the Phillies. Logic said the Cubs were virtually the same team as last year, and then everyone except Derrek Lee essentially forgot how to hit. The Mets fix the one reason they fell short the year before, by adding not one, but two closers, and then end up with almost the entire payroll on the disabled list. The Tampa Bay Rays change almost nothing from the year before, where they were clearly the most talented team in the league, but their pitching is surprisingly inconsistent all year and they fail to get back to the playoffs.

3.) Jeffrey Loria's an idiot. Joe Girardi is a terriffic manager, and Loria should be kicking himself for firing him. All of his teams overachieve. This Yankees team did not have the best starting pitchers, it didn't have the best bullpen (Rivera's only one guy), and their offensive dominance was clearly a result of the field they played on. He got the Yankees to play loose (Nick Swisher might be team MVP there, and A.J. Burnett also helped in that department). Hell he even got A-Rod playing like Alex Rodriguez in the postseason.

4.) Cliff Lee might be the best pitcher in baseball. Or at least top 5.

5.) Mark Teixeira is an incredible player. Bobby Cox didn't like him. Mike Scioscia didn't like him. Thought he was more a stat machine than an impact player. Good thing the Steinbrenners didn't listen.

6.) The Phillies aren't built to beat AL teams. They wouldn't win any of AL divisions. They don't play NL ball, evident from everything from their inability to steal beyond two guys, their lack of depth, their poor bullpen, their starting pitchers not having great raw stuff (Cliff Lee being the exception, and Hamels is ordinary with out the curve), and their necessity to play on raw emotion. They play AL ball in a league which they can easily beat up on weaker clubs. But in the end, they don't match up well with the great NL teams. The should have lost to the Rockies, and they would have lost to the Cardinals, they luckily got to face a Dodgers team that wasn't that good, and when they ran out of luck against the Yankees, well we all saw what happened.

7.) The Pirates have no idea how to win. They just don't know what they're doing. They've successfully gathered many of the best prospects from 2006, ones that haven't exactly made a big splash in the bigs thus far.

8.) Mets fans are destined to suffer.

9.) Say what you want about Jeter's fielding, but he doesn't let that carry over to his hitting.

Thoughts on Iwamura Deal

Earlier today, a trade of Tampa Bay's Akinori Iwamura to the Pirates for Jesse Chavez was announced. This is a great move for both teams for a variety of reasons.

Iwamura is affordable and good - two things that the Pirates love. Iwamura is set to earn just under $5 million this year, and is good value at that price. He's one of the better fielding Second Basemen in the game, is able to hit second (where the Pirates plan to bat him) and moves Delwyn Young back to the bench. Plus, his money immediately comes off the books after this year, and god forbid the Pirates spend too much.

On the Rays' side, Chavez might not be an immediate help at the big league level, but Ben Zobrist's breakout season had made Iwamura quite expendable, and Chavez had a decent rookie season for the Pirates. No, he probably won't be a key cog in the bullpen, but the cash strapped Rays just freed up $5 million, which should help them not have to trade Upton and/or Crawford this offseason, and Chavez is affordable and controllable for awhile.

There aren't many win-win deals. But here's proof they do exist.

Thoughts on poor predictions

Honestly, when I predicted my playoff choices, I felt pretty damn confident. I knew they weren't going to be perfect, but never in my mind was I thinking that I'd only correctly predict one of the division series winners (Yankees swept Twins, which I did predict).

But the Phillies got a few lucky breaks in Game 3, and then Huston Street reverted to 2008 form and looked more like Brad Lidge than Brad Lidge has. Every Rockie did what they needed to do except Street. He took 2 of the 3 losses, blew one save, and quite frankly lost the Rockies the series.

The Dodgers starters proved up to snuff, and showed some late game magic to beat St. Louis in both games started by Carpenter and Wainwright, which is impossible to predict. Maybe they have the drive and magic to take it all.

And the Angels swept the Sox in what I called the most evenly matched division series this year. Well the Angels starters stepped up, slaying both Beckett and Lester. Lackey probably just added another year to his deal in free agency this offseason with that dominating start.

So far, heroes of the playoffs: Alex Rodriguez (playing A-rod like in the playoffs finally), and Cliff Lee (if they don't take Game 1, they probably lose this series). Honorable mention to Carlos Gonzalez, who played terrific despite the series loss, and John Lackey, for winning Game 1 when everyone thought Lester would make him look inferior as a pitcher.

Goats: Street, and Brian Duensing. I don't care that he was overmatched, if you expect to win, your Game 1 starter can't give up more earned runs than innings pitched.

Thoughts on Jim Tracy

Back when Clint Hurdle was fired, I was ecstatic. I was tired of watching Hurdle not play his best players. But Tracy has proven to be just as bad during the playoffs, overplaying matchups, trying to counteract the Phillies left-handed starters.

Hawpe, of the .900-something OPS, is sitting on the bench in favor of Ryan Spillborghs. Ian Stewart has one AB this playoffs. Jason Giambi pinch hit for Dexter Fowler in the 9th inning, even though Fowler was 2 for 4 on the night, and Giambi has been 0 for 2 in the playoffs thus far.

The Fowler for Giambi move was inexcusable, no way a cold pinch hitter is better than one of your best players who hit the ball well that night, it's just stupid.

Thoughts on the Red Sox elimination

The Red Sox have no excuse for this loss. There's not one single player who isn't at fault for this series loss. And this is why Papelbon isn't as good as Rivera. Rivera doesn't blow this save.

For the Angels, Kazmir also has to pitch better, he was acquired partially because of his success against the Yankees and Red Sox, and he didn't come to play today.

And this defeat especially helps the Yankees. They don't match up well with the Sox at all, and now (assuming they finish the Twins off) they don't have to deal with them. Are the Angels capable of beating the Yankees? Absolutely, but the Angels are more likely to walk in intimidated and without swagger. Which is too bad, because they have a comparable talent level.

Thoughts on Charlie Manuel

Watching Game 2 of the Phillies vs. Rockies I was shock. The Phillies don't have a bad bullpen other than the closer mess. But after Cole Hamels predictably didn't pitch very well at all, he decided to use the predicted Game 3 and Game 4 starters J.A. Happ and Joe Blanton out of the bullpen. Needless to say, I, among others watching, were befuddled.

Now Pedro Martinez will be starting Game 3, a game they're now very likely to lose, as a pitcher really needs a solid fastball to be a decent pitcher in Colorado, and Pedro just doesn't have that anymore. Jason Hammel's a much worse pitcher in Colorado than he is anywhere else, so at least the Phillies have that going for them. This now means Cliff Lee has to pitch Game 4, leaving any of Happ, Blanton, or Hamels open for Game 5. Even though Happ only pitched 4 pitches, the way Manuel used him leaves one to think he's going to be used as a LOOGY out of the bullpen, and not the rotation.

And congrats to the Dodgers for proving me dead wrong by beating the Cardinals in both games started by Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter (a little help by Matt Holliday didn't hurt).

Thoughts on Tigers-Twins and a Playoff Preview

So with the Tigers losing today, my pick for the World Series is kaput. In a 5 or 7 game series, in which you face Edwin Jackson, Rick Porcello, and Justin Verlander 5 out of 5, or 6 out of 7 games, you aren't going to win more of those games than the Tigers. Not happening. However, the Twins only had to beat Porcello once, and they did that.

Moreso, Jim Leyland made the mistake of removing Porcello, who had just retired nine straight before giving up the Jason Kubel solo shot, and then a walk to the next batter. He removed him for Zach Minor. Seriously? Porcello's pitching very well, they have the lead, and he takes him out for a mediocre bullpen arm. Who promptly blew it. Porcello didn't lose, Leyland managed them out of the game. He managed scared, which is probably a result of how they struggled to finish out the season.

Rick Porcello's essentially beat the Twins with just his fastball, and the Twins can hit. Heads up to the American League, he's going to be one to fear next year.

Alas, the Twins are now in, and will face the Yankees in the ALDS. While the Tigers would have pushed this series to 5 games, probably winning the series. The Yankees will win this in 3. They hit better, they pitch better (both out of the pen and in the rotation) and sadly play better defense, which isn't saying much because the Yanks don't play great defense anyways. Yankees in 3.

In the other AL series, I think the Red Sox are coming away in 5 in probably the most evenly matched series in the playoffs. In Game 1, it's a tossup as Lackey's been great since the All-Star break (3.05 ERA) and Lester's a surefire ace. Game 2 pits Jered Weaver vs. modern playoff-legend Jose Beckett in another tossup. In game 3, the Angels Kazmir, who's been on fire since he's arrived in L.A. should take out youngster and eternal top-prospect Clay Buchholz. If it gets to Game 4, the Sox will beat Joe Saunders with whomever they decide to throw at him. Figure Game 5 is Lackey vs. Lester or Beckett in another tossup, a coin flip is more likely to predict the winner than any logical, analytical solution. Red Sox steal Game 1 or Game 2, and win Game 5 to take the series in 5.

In the NL, the Cards are going to throttle the Dodgers. The Dodgers are deep in starting pitching, but in five games, it's better to have 2 aces than a group of 4 solid starters. In a seven game series, this would be a trickier choice, but St. Louis isn't going to lose a 5 game series when 4 of those games are started by Carpenter and Wainwright. And Joe Torre is proving what an idiot he is by starting Ronnie Belliard (who's not completely healthy either) over Orlando Hudson, and tagging Vincente Padilla for the Game 3 start over Chad Billingsley. Giving Belliard some extra starts down the stretch when he's got the hot hand is understandable. But it's the playoffs, one's best off playing is superior players, and Hudson is better on both sides of the ball. And I don't care if Billingsley's struggled a little in the 2nd half, he's been getting his shit together, and Padilla's a notorious choke artist. Cards in 3 games, 4 at worst.

Dodgers-Rockies provides the other particularly interesting playoff division series, but one which has just dramatically changed with Jorge De La Rosa getting hurt. Game 1 should go to the Phillies, although if Ubaldo Jimenez is on his game, I could be dead wrong. Game 2 will go to the Rockies, as I expect Aaron Cook to be the slightly above-average starter he is, while I expect the Rockies to pound Cole Hamels. Rockies will come back with a Game 3 victory, as Hammel's been a much better pitcher in Colorado, and Joe Blanton's never pitched in Coors, and isn't a very good road pitcher anyways. This is where the series becomes unpredictable, because I like the Phillies if they start Pedro Martinez Game 4, and push Lee to Game 5, but odds are they pitch Lee here, and Hamels has to throw Game 5 and Ubaldo proves who's the best young gun in the NL. Since I don't know what Charlie Manuel is going to do, (mostly because he's a moron), I'm picking the Rockies to win in 5 since Brad Lidge will probably blow a game they were supposed to win.

The ALCS and NLCS are much more difficult to predict, because there's no guess as to how much rest everyone has, what the starting pitcher matchups are, etc. But the Rockies should take out the Cardinals in a longer series because while the Cardinals should take 3 of 4 pitched by Carp and Wainwright, the Rockies should win the other 3 against Joel Pineiro and Smoltz/Lohse. Rockies in 7.

In the ALCS, the Red Sox are going to prove why this Yankees team isn't built for playoff baseball. They are going to simply out-pitch the Yankees in every facet of the game. They match up better in ever slot, one through four, in the playoff rotation, and they have many more arms to use out of the bullpen.

This is probably the most fun matchup in the playoffs. A young Rockies team is going to have much, much more energy than the BoSox. This is a team that plays as hard as anyone, and that might simply where out a Red Sox team that has been here before and won't have the same adrenaline. On the other hand, outside Ubaldo, the entire Red Sox starting pitching is better than the Rockies,and the Sox have a much better bullpen. On the other hand, the Rockies can possibly outhit and probably outfield the Red Sox. Look for the Rockies to push this to Game 7, but run out of gas. Sox in 7.

Thoughts on one blog for September!

Guess who's been a crappy blogger since he got to college? Time to do better. I think I'll do better once playoffs start.

So here's some quick thoughts on baseball's happenings of late.

First, with Bobby Valentine returning to the USA, I'm going to rehash one of my favorite opinions: Bobby Valentine should be the manager of the Mets. He's a white Ozzie Guillen. He fits perfectly for them. He gives a team without any character some character. He should have never been fired for Steve Phillips' mistakes. The Wilpons love him, his players loved him, and he was a winner. Fire Jerry Manuel if, and only if, Bobby Valentine returns.

Second, it's about time Eric Wedge got fired. Seriously, that team's underachieved for the last 5 years.

Third, the awards this year are easy. Pujols and Mauer should be MVP, Lincecum and Greinke are the Cy Youngs. Apologies to Felix Hernandez, Justin Verlander, and Prince Fielder.

Fourth, I'm not making playoff predictions right now. I want to see the matchups, I don't see clear-cut favorites that will beat whomever they play.

Thoughts on the Mets Hospital Bill

Ok, I've been caught as a lazy blogger once again. Time to write one.

I normally try and avoid talking about the Mets, to avoid bias, but when Johan AND Oliver Perez hit the DL, it's time to address the issues.

First, the Mets have around $105 million on the DL right now. If you want to count up how much payroll has been on the DL all season, that's around $120-$125 million.

I can't imagine in the history of the MLB has a team had 8 of the 9 members of the opening day lineup spend time on the DL for a significant length of time. A lot of analysts have cited the Mets struggles as not having the organizational depth to survive these injuries. But a realist would argue that only a select few organizations have the depth to field a competitive team, let alone a good one, if they sustained these types of injuries.

Second, beyond the catastrophe, is the consideration of how much this is a fluke, and if anything's wrong with the Met's training/medical staff, as Ken Rosenthal has recently suggested. The Mets need to address that situation immediately, to see if it's a problem, or not anything.

Thirdly, if I were the Mets I'd be working harder at developing and drafting high end talent, that's major league ready, or close to it so they can fill in if needed. They have developed some depth in the lower ranks, but it's all far from major league ready. When the Mets reached down for help this season, all they had that wasn't aging veterans were Niese (who got hurt) and Fernando Martinez (also hurt!)

Thoughts on being a lazy blogger

Between vacation and a lull in interesting baseball news, I haven't blogged in basically two weeks. So this might be a rather long blog.


First up is the 5 spot in the Phillies rotation. Signing Pedro was a dumb move for the Phillies. At best, the difference between him and Jamie Moyer is a wash. And all they did was anger a clubhouse leader, cause a controversy where there didn't need to be one, and insert a pitcher who can potentially maybe have a sub-5 ERA. It's not as if they added Doug Davis, or Aaron Haraang.

Now considering the luck of the Phillies, and the lack of luck by the Mets, Pedro regains his form and proves to be a middle of the rotation starter the Mets so desperately needed. I mean, they added an above average outfielder to replace there, well, nearly identical outfielder, and he turns into Jason Bay. They got J.C. Romero for basically nothing. They got Cliff Lee without giving up one of their 4 best young guys.

And as far as Moyer's reaction is concerned, I'm quite divided on it. On one hand, he should of just shut up and not been a distraction, like he said he didn't want to be. On the other hand, he has something along the lines of 25 years of MLB service time, and has sort of earned the right to say what he wants. I'm completely split-brained on this, and can't make up my mind. Personally, if I was in his situation I would of pitched a fit, but that's me.


Moving on to the Rick Porcello vs. Kevin Youkilis fight. First of all, I'm dumbfounded as to whether Porcello hit him on purpose or accident. The extensive conversation between Jim Leyland and Terry Francona after the fight would indicate that it was most likely on accident. On the other hand, the way the ball was thrown, it looked as if he was trying to nail him. However, he already threw a pitch high and tight clearly intending to hit Youkilis.

Regardless of intent, everything to that point went down as it should've. They hit the Tigers key hitters, they should be throwing back at the Sox.

But Youkilis is a fool for charging the mound. Are you kidding me? Take your lumps like everyone else. And then throwing your helmet? Maybe Porcello looked scared as he moved away from you, but throwing a helmet is just as cowardly, and those things are hard, and can actually hurt a player (crack a kneecap?). Odds are Porcello just didn't want to fight, at risk of suspension. Because the way he threw Youkilis to the ground, (and the fact that he's 6'5") indicates that he knew he could take Youkilis. And if he was throwing at him intentionally, kudos for already proving to be a good teammate at age 19.


Alex Rios got traded about a week ago. Simple salary dump. I don't know this for sure, but J.P. Ricciardi may be an idiot. He failed to get max value for Roy Halladay, he gave a big contract to Vernon Wells, who's since tanked, and Rios, who's done mostly the same. He also gave a big contract to B.J. Ryan, who basically has spent the last 2 years injured, as well as A.J. Burnett, who proved to be just above average, and also spent decent time on the DL. Ricciardi seems to have an eye for young talent (the young starting rotation, Travis Snider, Aaron Hill, etc.), especially young pitching, but lacks an eye for players who can stay healthy.


The Yankees officially transformed themselves into the version of themselves that lost to the D-backs in the World Series a few years back. Only Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, Pettite, and Rivera, etc are all around five years older. This team seems built to win in the regular season, but not for the postseason. Seriously, they have the third worst collection of talent in their own division, and yet they have the best record in baseball. Their catcher sucks behind the dish, Cano's average, and they got very little in the outfield. And their rotation is ok, and the bullpen is average too. Seriously, when teams like the Yankees win it drives me crazy. The Dodgers should win, they are as deep as anyone in the lineup, can play defense, and also have four solid starters. The Yankees are mostly average, and win anyways. Proves to show that I don't understand everything about the game I guess.

Thoughts on the Trade Deadline

The trade deadline's past, and now it's time to examine the impact.

First off, all that hubub of a slow deadline because of the economy proved for naught, it might have actually forced a few deals that might have otherwise not happened (Jake Peavy? Word is that the Padres had to move some salary, and Peavy was the only significant money with value).

Second, it felt as if everyone undersold their biggest assets. The biggest crimes were that Victor Martinez and Cliff Lee were both stolen from the Indians for not much at all. Unless you're one of those people who think that the 4th through 7th ranked prospects of the Phillies are all going to be All Stars. (If you believe the hype of some of these analysts, the Phillies have 7 guys who would be the best, or at worst, 2nd best, prospects in any teams minor league systems). Boston has similar hype, as Bucholz, Masteron, Bowden, and Hagadone are all called future aces by various analysts. Really? Victor Martinez is consistently one of the best catchers in baseball, and he got sold for $.75 on the dollar.

Thirdly, all the bad contracts that had any value (Washburn, Rolen, etc) also moved, so those type of guys aren't moving in August (although some bad contract will undoubtedly move). So this idea that Brian Cashman and a few others mentioned of the month as not actually a trade deadline may prove false also.

Thoughts on Phillies getting Lee for almost nothing

No, Cliff Lee is not Roy Halladay. One couldn't expect for the Indians to get both Drabek and Brown from the Phillies for them. As a Mets fan, I can't be too upset, considering the Mets got Johan Santana for a comparable package. But Johan at least forced a trade to them, while Cliff Lee did no such thing.

The Phillies didn't have to give up any of J.A. Happ, Dominic Brown, Michael Taylor, or Kyle Drabek, their 4 best young players. They gave up absolutely everything they had but those 4 players., but the Indians were downright stupid not to demand at least one in a deal. Jason Donald is a nice prospect, but probably is nothing more than a David Eckstein with a stronger arm. Carrasco could be a mid-rotation starter, and Marson a lower level starting catcher.

Maybe this is a biased viewpoint of mine, but I just don't like many of the prospects in the Phillies system, I just don't see the raw tools out of them to be superstars. (Maybe Dominic Brown, but otherwise I'm very skeptical).

Thoughts on a bad Trade Deadline

I remember only a few years ago, teams spent more freely. But the last few years, most clubs haven't been willing to take on new money for talent.

It used to be a regular occurrence for teams to take on aging, veteran, but still talented players with large contracts. Now teams looking for a playoff push seem unwilling to take on the large salary. Recently, the only time this happened is when the Yankees took Bobby Abreu off the Phillies hands for nothing. The only reason this happened was that the Yankees don't give a crap about money.

Brian Giles, Luis Castillo, Melvin Mora, Aubrey Huff, and Danys Baez should all be on the move. If one of them moves, it will be a surprise.

As a result, this trade deadline will be boring (even if Halladay moves).

Thoughts on how dumb Joe Morgan is

I'm currently watching the Mets play the Braves in Atlanta on ESPN.

It's the first inning, there's a runner on 3rd, one out, and Danny Murphy is at the plate.

He hits a sharp, hard liner, but it's right back at Javier Vazquez and he makes a nice grab for an out.

Joe Morgan then chastises him for not hitting a grounder to the right side, and that "the only way that run doesn't score is if you hit it back to the pitcher."

This is stupid for two reasons:

1.) There's lot's of ways he doesn't score -- pop up, strikeout, grounder to third, hard grounder to short, soft liner, shallow pop fly or a line-out to anyone.

2.) He just suggested not hitting the ball square, and not to go with the pitch.

Joe Morgan's an idiot, in the booth he makes Steve Phillips look smart. And we know for a fact Steve Phillips is dumb because of the 2nd Mets team he assembled post- Robin Ventura/Todd Zeile/Jay Payton etc.

Thoughts on a Bad Trade

Ryan Church was traded for Jeff Francoeur last night. I only have a few thoughts on this:

Omar Minaya must hate Church as much as much as Jerry Manuel does.

Omar Minaya makes some very good moves (signed K-rod, Beltran, Pedro, Sheffield, traded for Johan) and some very bad ones (traded away Heath Bell, Matt Lindstrom, Ryan Church, signed/traded for Luis Castillo). This one was terrible, the next one is bound to be close to how he got Johan Santana for Carlos Gomez. He's going to get a win. (Halladay for spare prospects?).

Why would anyone want Jeff Francoeur?

The Mets are now officially missing the should-be starters in RF, CF, SS, 2B (not officially hurt, but can't play every day, and he'll be on the DL soon), 1B.

If Jeff Francoeur suddenly learns plate discipline (obviously he's "young" at 25, and as he ages, he will learn plate discipline. Because that's something you learn with age, at least according to Minaya. Minaya's a very, very smart man. Not.)

The best argument in favor of Francoeur was that he plays a lot of games. Seriously, he's always healthy. But just because the Braves made the mistake of playing him everyday, doesn't mean the Mets have to do the same.

In case Omar Minaya didn't notice, 8 of the top 11 league leaders in walks are under the age of 31. It appears the correlations are not in his favor.

Yes, Church is a no-power corner outfielder. But Jeff Francoeur is an SI cover jinx. And no one can overcome that. Not even Mr. Met.

Thoughts on All-Star Teams

This year's teams bay be the least objectionable I've seen in years. There's no catchers batting under .250, or absurd personal choices by coaches who want their own guys. Ryan Howard/Ben Zobrist may not be the best players, but one could make arguments for them making the team.

I only have a few players on my list who really don't have any business being in this game:

Jason Marquis - he has 10 wins, he must be having a good year! Which he is, but not All-Star good. Javier Vasquez, Jair Jurrjens, Yovanni Gallardo?

Yadier Molina - One of the most consistently overrated players in baseball. Pablo Sandoval (4th in the NL in hitting)?

Ryan Howard - defensible, but he's still hitting .250, and Adrian Gonzalez and Prince Fielder are already reserves at this position, and both are having much better years.

I don't have any major issues with the AL rosters. It's hard to argue with these choices. Joe Maddon gave another example of why he's such a genius, crafting perhaps the best All-Star roster he could.

Thoughts on All-Decade team

ESPN.com recently released an "All-Decade" team for the NFL, and it got me to thinking: who would fill out an All-Decade team for the MLB? So I decided to put together a full 25 man roster, 5 OF's, 2 Catchers, 6 IF's, as well as 5 Starters, one long reliever, and 2 lefty specialists, one righty specialists, a setup man and a closer. No DH, because I have a team of living legends, anyone of them could be a DH. This turned out to be much more difficult than I thought it would be. Some picks were easy, some were quite difficult, but here we go.

Starting Lineup
1.) CF - Carlos Beltran - In the 90's, this choice would be easy. It was Griffey. But he didn't carry his magical production that far into the 2000's, so he's out. The other two best possibilities? Andruw Jones and Jim Edmonds. They are all terrific defensively, so it comes down to base-running and hitting. Andruw Jones at one time was the best hitter, but that quickly changed with the last two dreadful years. Edmonds had a few great years with the bat, but had a steep decline as the decade wore on, and was on the slower side. Carlos Beltran has been consistently excellent in every facet of the game from 2001-2008, and the other two can't say that.

2.) 2B - Chase Utley - Alfonso Soriano got some consideration here, but Chase Utley is close to what Alfonso was during his prime, and is a far superior fielder. Roberto Alomar did as well, but he isn't quite the hitter Utely is.

3.) 1B - Albert Pujols - Not even fair how good he is. I could write an essay on why he's the best hitter in this century other than Bonds. This man will go down as the greatest first-baseman ever.

4.) SS - Alex Rodriguez - I'm putting him here because he's the best shortstop that's ever played. I don't care that he plays 3B for the Yankees, he could out-field Jeter every day of the week easily.

5.)LF - Barry Bonds - In any other decade, a player of Manny Ramirez's ability would get this spot. He just happens to play the same position as the man who put up what is the greatest hitter since maybe Ted Williams.

6.) C - Mike Piazza - This maybe biased, but he's the greatest hitting catcher ever, and was still a productive through 2006. Pudge Rodriguez and Joe Maurer both had consideration here, but Pudge was never quite as good defensively as many made him out to be, and Mike Piazza wasn't bad behind the plate as many made him out to be (he was actually quite good at blocking pitches, framing, and pitchers enjoyed pitching to him).

7.) RF - Vlad Guererro - One of the most dangerous hitters in the game in the last 25 years. Pitchers hated pitching to him because he would swing ay anything-- and still hit it hard wherever it was put. Ichiro also received consideration for this spot, but he's just not in the same league as what Vlad was. Although to be fair, Ichiro's best seasons are better than Vlad's. Vlad's was just more consistently amazing over a longer period of time.

8.) 3B - Miguel Cabrera. Scott Rolen and Chipper Jones were both options here. Both left off because of their inability to stay on the field. Rolen also knocked for the decline in the last few years, although he's the best at the position defensively by a long shot.

1.) SP - Pedro Martinez - I could have gone with Randy here, with a perfectly defensible argument. However, Pedro's first five years of this decade might be the greatest ever five year stretch for a pitcher, when you consider the era he's played in.
2.) SP - Randy Johnson - Randy was unhittable in the first half of the decade, and unlike Pedro, remained a productive pitcher into the latter years of the decade.
3.) SP - Johan Santana - Pedro might have been the best pitcher in the first five years of the decade, but Johan's dominated the 2nd half of it.
4.) SP - Roy Halladay - Roy is a pitcher from another era. In a time where 6 complete innings pitched is considered a good length, Halladay sets the bar for durable starters.
5.) SP - Jake Peavy - Jake has filthy stuff, and has been quite dominant throughout the decade.

Long Reliever - Scot Shields. Gotta be Shields. He was a setup man and sometimes spot-starter, but he worked multiple innings often, which many other relievers with his type of numbers can't say.

Lefty Specialist 1 - Billy Wagner - Maybe not a lefty specialist, but those years before he got to New York were amazing. And he's left handed, and in recent years, he's seen an increase in differential of his righty/lefty splits.

Lefty Specialist 2 - Hideki Okajima - Again, not necessarily a "specialist," but he's left-handed and amazing. And throws great pitches without even looking at his target. I don't know how he does that.

Righty Specialist - Trevor Hoffman - Look at his righty/lefty splits the last few years. He's killed them.

Setup Man - Francisco Rodriguez - If I hadn't used Sheilds as my long man, he'd go here. Alas, I will dip into the closer pool again. Nathan? Wasn't that special as a set-up man. Gagne? Relievers are so volatile in nature, and he was absolutely volatile, even if he did have maybe the best two year stretch of a closer ever. Lidge is in the same department. That leaves us with K-Rod, who was absolutely brilliant as a setup man for Troy Percival before turning into a closer.

Closer - Mariano Rivera. Arguments can be made for Gagne, K-Rod, Wagner, Lidge, Hoffman, Nathan, and many others. But Rivera's been too good for too long to be overlooked for this team.

Bench
Joe Mauer - Tough choice between him and Pudge. Actually, not really. He's a better defender, and a better hitter.
Ichiro Suzuki - This team is kind of slow. Ichiro helps that.
Manny Ramirez - Possibly the best pure hitter of this generation.
Alfonso Soriano - Team's still slow, and Soriano fixes that, and he can play Left and Second Base.
Miguel Tejada - Can play all three infield positions other than 1st. Not too bad with the stick either.

Thoughts on Crush Davis

Recently, Chris Davis became the fastest player to reach 100 strikeouts in a season or something along those lines.

The Texas Rangers are tied for 1st in the AL West.

The Texas Rangers have 4 OF's who are legitimate starters.

The Texas Rangers have the very capable Hank Blaylock to play first base.

The Texas Rangers have super-prospect Justin Smoak to play first base.

So why oh why is Crush Davis getting this much playing time?

Thoughts on the MLB Draft

I read a chat wrap on espn.com by Keith Law earlier today, and I found one question particularly enticing. It talked about freedom of employment, and how since the prospects aren't part of the MLBPA (the player's union), they shouldn't be bound to the that drafted them since they aren't under the same rules as players in the MLBPA. One hypothetical sitution involved one player who intended to go to college anyways sue the MLB to play for any team he wanted instead of the one that drafted him, and attend college while the lawsuit played out.

This is a very intriguing situation, and would throw the entire system askew because of how the system discriminates against U.S. born players, (almost all foreign-born players sign with any club they choose-which is why they tend to have larger contracts and sign younger).

This scenario would most likely end in a big mess, possibly even resulting in a players' strike. Terrible for baseball, but fun to talk about.

Also, I really enjoy Keith Law's work. He deals mostly in sabermetrics, but he uses them all logically, and he also scouts prospects in the classic style. He knows his stuff.

Thoughts on why it is impossible to be a Mets fan

About 2 minutes ago, Luis Castillo dropped what should have been the third out in the ninth to win a hard-fought game with their subway rivals. A game in which both sides showed continued grit, battling back and forth for the win.

And this wasn't surprising at all. As soon as Alex Rodriguez popped it up, and the camera shifted to Castillo, I had a bad feeling. I knew he wasn't going to catch it. Maybe it's because he looked like he couldn't find it. Maybe because he's a terrible player in general. Maybe because the Mets had two heart-wrenching defeats in a row to the Phillies. But I could tell.

The Mets can't advance any farther than what they are right now if they don't shed their dead weight. Trading Ramon Castro was a start. Luis Castillo needs to be next (followed by Ryan Church).

Getting healthy would also help.

Thoughts on young players not getting a fair shot

Nothing bugs me more than to see MLB talent sitting in the minors, or sitting on the bench in the majors while some washed up veteran takes away at-bats they deserve.

The worst culprit of this is the Angels. I don't know whether this is an issue with Mike Scioscia or the front office telling him to keep playing the veterans, but over the last five years, they've wasted what's consistently one of the best crops of young players in the MLB. Brandon Wood has been ready for about 2 years for the MLB spotlight, but they insist on manning Macair Izturis and Erick Aybar at short, and Figgins at third. Really? Figgins is a good, not great player, that Wood would easily outproduce, and by now it's very apparent that the other two are nothing but light hitting defenders.

The Rockies were horrible too. But that's been covered in the blog about how bad Clint Hurdle was as manager.

Why is Emil Brown taking away 2 AB's from Fernando Martinez? That's ridiculous.

Travis Snider was hitting great in April, but couldn't get consistent playing time because the Blue Jays insisted on playing Jose Bautista. Jose Bautista.

Why is Alcides Escobar spending time down in the minors while the Brew Crew give Craig Counsell AB's at seecond?

I will never understand why teams leave their best players in the minors. Give the young guy a shot, the old guy already has proved he can't play.

Thoughts on today's trade

Today Nate McLouth was traded for a package of prospects, headlined by Gorkys Hernandez, the #62 prospect in baseball. Some wonder where the Braves dynasty failed, and it's becoming fairly obvious that the keystone in the stone fence was Jon Schuerholz. What's changed since the 90's dominance other than him? Bobby Cox is still there, Chipper still mans 3rd, they have great pitching, a strong farm system,etc.

The only major difference in how this team is run is the man choosing which personnel to employ. Jon Schuerholz had an eye for talent. Frank Wren does not. Today, Wren traded a centerfielder who could be a legit starter for the next five to ten years for a .255 hitter. .255! Could Gorkys Hernandez right now be much worse than what Mclouth has been his whole career?

Popular media will say that the Braves traded for an impact bat and glove. Smart media will tell you they added an average bat and glove. Nate Mclouth is merely Eric Byrnes 2.0. A streaky player who makes exciting plays who put enough hot streaks together in one season to masquerade as an elite player, who's then signed to an expensive contract that's priced far beyond his talent level. Pittsburgh will get hammered for this deal by the media, but they've actually made out like bandits.

Thoughts on preseason predictions

It's really difficult to predict the future. Especially in baseball. Assumptions have to be made when guessing who'll win the division. Such as Chipper Jones missing at least 20 games, Ryan Howard striking out almost 200 times and Alex Rodriguez kicking ass, steroids or no steroids.

However, by May, many of the predictions start to crumble. B.J. Upton hitting around the mendoza line, Raul Ibanez leading the league in home runs, and decent pitching from the Rangers all contribute to surprises that skew these predictions.

Naturally, it was really easy to pick the NL East based on very reasonable assumptions. The Mets were an easy pick to win, if not run away with the division. This was a team who was undermined by a crippled bullpen at the end of September. They fielded fine, hit fine, ran fine, and their starters were good (Santana was amazing).

So they added J.J. Putz, K-Rod, and Sean Green, and subtracted Schoenweiss, Ayala, Heilman, etc. Easy fix, this is now a team without a real big weakness as every other contender in the NL has.

And then the Mets became a perfect example of why predicting the future is impossible. For a stretch of nearly 2 weeks, they've regularly been missing starters at Catcher, First, Shortstop, and Center, as well as a few games at Third. Also missing are troubled starter Oliver Perez and sometimes Rightfielder Ryan Church. And while the Mets seemed to have enough depth, when they lost the backup Shortstop Alex Cora to the DL, it was clear that the Mets had been bit by the injury bug and got AIDS.

So what we have is a Mets team that's barely staying afloat, one that was getting hot, until half the team hit the DL. Maybe the Mets get everyone together again, and still win the division, but it certainly won't be the cakewalk it should have been. But right now, they're proving how hard it is to predict a 162 game season.

Maybe I should stop making a preseason prediction. I'd have a better chance of winning the lottery.

Thoughts on Clint Hurdle

So my least-favorite manager in the league was fired last night. Clint Hurdle might have been the worst manager in the last decade. I saw an article on Yahoo! where the writer quoted someone who said that he was always in a hurry to get his second best team on the field. How else can you explain why Barmes gets played over Stewart and Fowler would sit behind Spilborghs every other night? You couldn't move Spilborghs to left and sit Seth Smith? Why was Manny Corpas closing at all this year? I don't care what he did two years ago!

This team has the potential to compete in the NL West (take my word, the Dodgers aren't that good, especially without Manny).

Speaking of the Dodgers, I saw Jeff Weaver pitch a little today. He had some really nice movement on his fastball, but then he would leave it over the plate. And then he'd leave 5 feet off the plate. Oh Jeff, I wonder what it's like to be Jered and knowing you're ten times better than your brother.

Then I caught a little of the Giants/Cardinals game later. Barry Zito threw possibly the best curve I've seen live to strike on Albert Pujols. And we all know Pujols doesn't strike out that much. If he can keep his fastball up aroudn 88 consistently, we could be seeing a 4ish ERA out of Zito this year.

Thoughts on Surprise Players in 2009

We're a little over a quarter into the season now, so the short flukes from April are gone and those who've maintained success have separated themselves from the pack.

Raul Ibanez is hitting the best he has in his entire career. I'd love to say it's a pure result of hitting in the Phillies home stadium, but I can't. He has more homers on the road. His OPS is 1.156, with a .350 avg and a .412 OBP. Insane. I'm calling for a 2nd half decline for him, he's not this good, no way.

Aaron Hill has seemingly has teased the MLB for a few seasons with his skill, and he finally seems to sustaining it. Kind of like Nate McLouth. Maybe he can sustain it for more than one season, unlike Mclouth, who's faltered a little this year.

Felipe Lopez is off to a good start, hitting .323. It never lasts though.

Johnny Damon's on pace for about 40 HR's. Absurdly insane, I don't believe that for a second.

And then everybody's favorite comeback story, Zack Greinke, is on pace for perhaps the greatest season ever for a pitcher. Is he this good? Of course not. But is he perennial Cy Young winner good? Absolutely. He's going to be the best for years to come.

Thoughts on Interleague Play

So interleague play starts tomorrow. Big who cares. I mean, Yankees/Mets, White Sox/Cubs, Dodgers/Angels, and Giants/A's are nice series, but otherwise, it's all pretty dumb. Big build up for not a lot of show.


Really, interleague play should be shortened. Make all the geographical rivals play the home and home set of serieses. Create made-up rivalries for the last 5 or 6 matchups. Two weekends of play. Then end it. 6 games is all we need.

Also, interleague has a fundamental problem--the AL has a huge advantage when games are played by AL rules. National League teams don't carry a DH. So they just stick the best hitter on their bench in that slot. That creates a huge discrepancy as far as an even level of play. When playing by NL rules, it's a pretty even matchup. The AL teams just shift their lineups around to try and keep their best players on the field (David Ortiz plays first, shifting Youkillis, etc.).

If I had the time and the patience I'd go on a rant about why the DH is stupid, I'd do it. So I'll limit to 3 points: how absurd would it be in other 2-way sports (Basketball/Hockey/Lacrosse, etc.) if you could insert a better offensive player while you went on offensive possession. If the Suns could have sub Amare Stoudemire in for every offensive possession and got to take him out for defense, maybe they make the playoffs. He's also probably regarded as a much better player than he is right now. Also, it takes all the strategy out of the game. Willie Randolph is a perfect example of an AL guy who couldn't coach in the NL because he didn't understand the double switch, how to take advantage of a pitcher hitting in the 9 slot. Thirdly, I'm a baseball purist, I believe in pitchers duels, that steroids are bad for baseball, and that DH's are a violation of the beauty of the game.

MLB will never end the interleague play, at least not while Bud Selig is alive, but it should. It's a waste of time, creates unfair schedules, and further tips the level of fair play towards the AL. It sickens me. But I do love my Mets-Yankees.

Thoughts on David Ortiz

Let's get theoretical here. Hypothetically, let's say Big Papi is done. For the rest of this year, and probably next, plays as horribly as he is doing now, and then decides to retire, because, let's face it, Ortiz has too much pride to hang on by a thread. But he's batting .220 with a .650 OPS right now and zero home runs, and things aren't looking up.

Then the question comes: does David Ortiz belong in the Hall of Fame? He only has 289 home runs on his 13 year career, with a .285 career average, with around 1300-1400 career hits. Doesn't seem like a Hall-of-Famer by raw numbers, does he?

But sometimes you have to factor in other contributions to the game. In the postseason, he has 12 Home Runs and a .293 average in 63 games. He has 4 All-Star appearances, as well as 4 silver sluggers, and a 2nd place finish in 2005. Most impressively, he led the AL in extra base hits 3 times.

Certainly, his case must be put in context for his time. For a power hitter, his total numbers are dwarfed by every other hitter of this generation. But then again, he was arguably the most feared hitter (not the best, but it was hard to argue who pitchers wanted to face less in the ninth inning than Ortiz) in the game for an approximate stretch of 2002-2007. But on the other hand, he was a DH, meaning he only played half (two-thirds in the opinion of many new statisticians) of the game.

I can go back and forth on this for 1000 more words at least. In my opinion, as he stands at 34 years of age, that he belongs in those hallowed halls. His peak was just too narrow, like the pitcher Bret Saberhagen, or the hitter Howard Johnson. The best comparable I can place to him is Mo Vaughn, who's heavy build betrayed him, ruining his ability to hit at the end of his career. If Mo doesn't make, neither should Papi.

I wish there was a Hall of some-sorts for the players who were historically great, but didn't have the longevity needed for the Hall-of-Fame. A place where Saberhagen, HoJo, Roger Maris, Mo Vaughn, Keith Hernandez, Orel Hershiser, etc can be honored for their great careers.

Thoughts on being a lazy blogger/recent happenings in baseball

So yeah, between finals, moving back to Irondequoit, and my column for the Michigan Daily, this blog has taken the backseat to the rest of my life. NO MORE! I'm recommitting myself to the random baseball thoughts blog.

Obviously, the biggest story in baseball the past few weeks is Manny Ramirez and his suspension. Yes Manny messed up. No he didn't test positive for steroids. Yes this drug has an association with steroids. But what exactly does this drug do? Restart testosterone. Which isn't exactly a PED (Performance Enhancing Drug). And it's not a mask for steroid use either, so that begs the question: why is it banned? I don't anticipate this affecting Manny's entry in the Hall of Fame, and it shouldn't. Serving his suspension is punishment enough, double jeopardy in this case is too much.

In other news:

BJ Upton was hitting something around .170 as of last night. Are you kidding me Upton? .170? In May? Really? You're killing your team (as well as my fantasy team). He's way too talented to be hitting this bad.

The Mets were on a 7 game win streak, but thanks to Jerry Manuel's awful bullpen handling, that's over. Another good start by Johan wasted. When will he learn that Pedro Feliciano can't get righties out?

Justin Verlander's been on fire. He looks like it's 2007 again. Took him long enough. Can't keep pitchers with filthy breaking balls and 100 mph heaters down too long.

This should be Randy Johnson's last season, he's been struggling all year.

It must be annoying playing the Blue Jays, every time you think they've lost all their pitching (except the always amazing/healthy Roy Halladay), they find more. They have to run out some time right? right?

Anyone see Texas in first place in the AL West part of the way into May? Anyone?

Boston's tied for first place in the AL East with the worst starting pitching ERA in the AL so far. And David Ortiz has 0 HR's. HOW IS THIS POSSIBLE?

But just like BAPIP, standings always seem to regress to the mean. Give it time I guess, because something's got to give with all these weird occurrences.

Thoughts on two baseball games I watched tonight

Verlander just completed the first inning. He was looking dirty. Then he gave up a double, which should have been an error (it was completely misjudged by Ryan Rayburn, and it bounced off his glove, how is that not an error on him), a walk, and then a bomb. Unfortunately, all 3 runs are earned, but they really shouldn't be. His stuff is absolutely dirty right now. The Angels are completely baffled by his breaker right now. He does have to stop leaving his fastball up though, because that's killing him.

John Maine looked terrible. I'm convinced he has no idea where he's pitching. It looks like he's letting it fly and praying that it's either not down the middle of the plate or that they whiff. He doesn't look poor mechanically, but something's not right. Maybe he's hurt.

Albert Pujols is everything I'd everything I'd ever want in a hitter. He mashes the ball, is patient, can run the bases, and plays good defense at first. Every time I think I shouldn't be jealous, because the Mets have David Wright, I look at him again, and I'm green with envy at the Cardinals. There's a famous story that a scout of the Devil Rays saw him play once -- and told them that he was going to be one of the best players ever. 7th round roles around, and the Cardinals pick him. Scout quits his job, just knowing the Rays missed out on something special. I wonder where he is right now, and if some team was smart enough to hire him, obviously he knows what he's talking about. Also, how good can someone be if there are legends about them by the time they're 25?


Curtis Granderson is very, very good. The kid understands the game.

I know Gary Matthews Jr. isn't very good with the bat, but what are the chances that he makes up enough with the glove that he's worth more than Abreu? I'd say not bad. Luckily for Abreu, the DH can extend his usefulness. God the DH is stupid. Assuming Joe Saunders gets Carlos Guillen out right now, Matthews has saved a run this inning that Abreu wouldn't have.

I like Mike Napoli, he can hit a little, and is decent defensively. I appreciate catchers, because Catcher or Quarterback is the most difficult position in sports. So to be even decent at the position, is very respectable.

I think Colby Rasmus needs maybe an extra half of a season in AAA. But he should be a good player in the Majors.

Brian Stokes should be pitching later in games -- the guy throws absolute gas. Manuel should be using him right in front of Putz.

Torii Hunter's range is way down. He still has an excellent glove, but maybe it's time for him to move to right.

Thoughts on Week 1

So one week's past, and as per usual, there have been way too many overreactions to standout performances from certain players.

For example, everyone seems to believe this Emilio Bonifacio kid is for real. Yes he's fast, but so is Joey Gathright. If scouts honestly thought he could hit, he wouldn't already be on his third organization by the time he's 23. He's been traded for Jon Rauch and again for Scott Olsen. And he's proven to be terrible with the glove at both 2nd and 3rd.

Now if someone gives a good reason to worry fans, then it's worth paying attention. Chien-Ming Wang's velocity was way down, and as a sinkerballer, he won't be able to beat hitters without it. Maybe he can work himself into shape and his velocity will rebound, but until it does, the Yankees need to be worried.

Milton Bradley and Rich Harden are still healthy. Cubs must be feeling great right now.

Padres are the biggest fluke right now. I don't know whether the NL West or the AL West is the worst division in baseball, but the Padres would be the worst in either one. Bullpen's ERA won't be hovering around 1.00 all season.

Nick Adenhart was going to be one of the greats. Everytime someone is killed by a drunk driver we say the same things, but nothing seems to change. This isn't fair to Nick, this isn't fair to baseball, this isn't fair to his family, this isn't fair to every victim of drunk driving who are dying in vain.

Thoughts on crappy baseball writers

In the tv show "The Office," one of my favorite caveats is that while Michael Scott is a crappy boss, he's an expert paper salesman. He could sell paper to a tree. He's simply been promoted one level too high for his own good.

This happens a lot in journalism. Successful beat writers often get promotions after years on the job. They become columnists. Some are very good, some are terrible, and make me seem like Peter Gammons.

In a race to provide the fastest, best baseball coverage, ESPN and Sports Illustrated have both lowered their standards to try and one-up each other.

Jon Heyman is probably the most evident example of this. The man is a beat writer, half his columns are him just blogging about the rumors around baseball. But whenever he tries to make any sort of evaluation on any team or player, he sounds like an idiot. He's that Yankee fan that thinks that just because they have the 5 highest paid players in the league, that means they have the 5 best players too. And that because half their team is overpriced former stars, that means that the other half of the team which are fringe minor leaguers are also star. He's the one that thinks because the Mets bullpen crumbled in the second half of the year, and the Phillies fluked their way to the playoffs, that it means that they are the best team in the National League. He's the one who thinks the Cubs will never win the World Series. He's the one who believes that the American League is clearly superior to the National League, and it has nothing to do with the competitive advantage of the DH that the AL has over the NL. (National League teams don't have roster a DH, so when they play by AL rules, the NL team puts a bench player as a DH, it gives the AL a huge advantage. The construction of AL teams vs. NL teams is very different, the NL places more emphasis on defense and intangibles than the AL. The AL places more emphasis on hitting. It's just different approaches. Unluckily for the NL, when the AL teams play by their rules, they aren't effected nearly the same amount, because they are now merely on equal levels of play, as opposed to when playing by the AL rules, where the NL teams aren't able to compensate for the differences.)

Ted Keith is another example of poor column writers. While I don't know what his background is, I do know that he writes terribly both stylistically and analytically, and had no business being hired. His columns are unimaginateive, boring, and predictable. A column should give someone something to think about, good or bad. Keith gives you nothing. His analysis is on the same level of that in SI for Kids. That's an inhouse move, maybe not a bad idea....

ESPN has its share of poor writers too. Jim Caple is uninspired, boring, and dry. I just ignore his articles now.

I'm not naive, I understand that not every writer is as good as Peter Gammons, Rob Neyer, or Tom Verducci. But the standard has to be set somewhere, and there's plenty of talent out there still undiscovered.

Thoughts after watching Rays-Red Sox

I watched Rays vs. Red Sox tonight, and basically came back reassured with many beliefs about these teams that I already had were true.

First off, that the Rays have the best pitching in the division. They have two starters (3 once Price is promoted) which are better than anyone the Red Sox have in their rotation. Kazmir was on tonight, and brought his A game to a big series. This isn't a knock on the Red Sox, because they have great starting pitching, but the Rays are just a little bit better.

Secondly, Grant Balfour's not a fluke. I remember watching him a few years ago in Rochester as a Red Wing. I was incredibly impressed, thought he could be a big league closer right then (or at least Joe Nathan's setup man). It took a few more years than I thought, but he's made it. He's got a closer's mentality -- this guy not only wants to get you out, he wants to make you look silly doing it.

Thirdly, the Red Sox miss Manny Ramirez. Jason Bay's great. Solid defense, great bat with plus power, can steal a base or two. But he doesn't have swagger. This Red Sox team may be more talented than the last two which have won titles, but they don't have that swagger. Papelbon has some swagger, but a team can't feed off a closers' swagger until the 9th, which won't matter if they've already lost. Manny had swagger, Manny had class (don't laugh, I'm serious), Manny had talent. Manny wanted to hit the ball over the fence, punch you in the mouth, and then laugh in your face afterwards. The Red Sox don't have guys with swagger anymore. They miss Manny, they miss Kevin Millar, they miss Orlando Cabrera, they miss Johnny Damon. With the skills of the Rays, they won't be able to win the division on sheer talent alone. Epstein doesn't make many mistakes, but he sure screwed up with the Manny debacle.

Next, Saito looked flat. It was a good idea to invest in him, because he was just one year removed from an amazing season, but I think age is catching up with him.

The Rays aren't perfect either though. With Fernando Perez and BJ Upton both out, they look real weak in the outfield, offensively and defensively. Luckily they get BJ back next week, but they aren't looking smart for letting Rocco Baldelli go to, ironically, the Red Sox. Also, can Joe Maddon needs to make Balfour his closer. I know the committee thing is working, but I think if he can boost that guy's ego a little more Balfour can take his competetive edge to the next level.

Thoughts after a couple days of baseball

The season's only 3 days old, but I think a few disturbing trends have already started. Some of these moves are absolute head-scratchers, and makes one wonder why some of these managers have jobs.

Starting in Colorado, where Clint Hurdle's splitting time at 2B between Clint Barmes and Ian Stewart. Ian Stewart's proven that he can hit and can play 2nd and 3rd. There is no excuse to why this solid hitter's not getting a full time players' worth of AB's. Barmes was a one-time flash in a pan and is never going to amount to more than a utility player.

Bobby Cox proves that the players on your team are more important than managers with every single move he makes. In the season opener, Derek Lowe is cruising through the Phillies, and has only 97 pitches, and also has a 4 run lead.And in the 8th, he retired the side 1-2-3. And then he has 3 hitters before he runs into the row of dangerous lefthanded batters in the Phillies lineup. Why not let him pitch to Bruntlett, Rollins and Werth, and if he runs into trouble, then call out the lefty closer to face the lefties Utley/Howard/Ibanez? He just wasted an outing of Mike Gonzolez he didn't necessarily need. Every time he does something like this, I remember why he had very little to do with that run of division titles, and that he was just John Schuerholz.

Way for the Mets to show off the brand new bullpen on opening day. Things looking up already for them.

Yankees aren't going to win if CC doesn't pitch like an ace. They can't afford more than a few outings of him like this.

The Rays seem flat without BJ Upton. He's a sparkplug for them, they need him back fast.

What does it say about your team when Dallas Braden is your opening day/most experienced starter?

The Blue Jays look like one of those teams with a lot of overall talent, but also have massive holes in essential places.

Tigers don't have a shot at the division title if Verlander pitches like he did yesterday, even if they score 1000 runs.

Bob Melvin looks equally incompetent as Bobby Cox. I understand the importance of matchups, but Justin Upton may be the most talented player on that team. Sit anyone other than him. Playing Tony Clark over Mark Reynolds for matchup reasons is probably a good move though.