Honestly, when I predicted my playoff choices, I felt pretty damn confident. I knew they weren't going to be perfect, but never in my mind was I thinking that I'd only correctly predict one of the division series winners (Yankees swept Twins, which I did predict).
But the Phillies got a few lucky breaks in Game 3, and then Huston Street reverted to 2008 form and looked more like Brad Lidge than Brad Lidge has. Every Rockie did what they needed to do except Street. He took 2 of the 3 losses, blew one save, and quite frankly lost the Rockies the series.
The Dodgers starters proved up to snuff, and showed some late game magic to beat St. Louis in both games started by Carpenter and Wainwright, which is impossible to predict. Maybe they have the drive and magic to take it all.
And the Angels swept the Sox in what I called the most evenly matched division series this year. Well the Angels starters stepped up, slaying both Beckett and Lester. Lackey probably just added another year to his deal in free agency this offseason with that dominating start.
So far, heroes of the playoffs: Alex Rodriguez (playing A-rod like in the playoffs finally), and Cliff Lee (if they don't take Game 1, they probably lose this series). Honorable mention to Carlos Gonzalez, who played terrific despite the series loss, and John Lackey, for winning Game 1 when everyone thought Lester would make him look inferior as a pitcher.
Goats: Street, and Brian Duensing. I don't care that he was overmatched, if you expect to win, your Game 1 starter can't give up more earned runs than innings pitched.
Monday, October 12, 2009
Thoughts on Jim Tracy
Back when Clint Hurdle was fired, I was ecstatic. I was tired of watching Hurdle not play his best players. But Tracy has proven to be just as bad during the playoffs, overplaying matchups, trying to counteract the Phillies left-handed starters.
Hawpe, of the .900-something OPS, is sitting on the bench in favor of Ryan Spillborghs. Ian Stewart has one AB this playoffs. Jason Giambi pinch hit for Dexter Fowler in the 9th inning, even though Fowler was 2 for 4 on the night, and Giambi has been 0 for 2 in the playoffs thus far.
The Fowler for Giambi move was inexcusable, no way a cold pinch hitter is better than one of your best players who hit the ball well that night, it's just stupid.
Hawpe, of the .900-something OPS, is sitting on the bench in favor of Ryan Spillborghs. Ian Stewart has one AB this playoffs. Jason Giambi pinch hit for Dexter Fowler in the 9th inning, even though Fowler was 2 for 4 on the night, and Giambi has been 0 for 2 in the playoffs thus far.
The Fowler for Giambi move was inexcusable, no way a cold pinch hitter is better than one of your best players who hit the ball well that night, it's just stupid.
Sunday, October 11, 2009
Thoughts on the Red Sox elimination
The Red Sox have no excuse for this loss. There's not one single player who isn't at fault for this series loss. And this is why Papelbon isn't as good as Rivera. Rivera doesn't blow this save.
For the Angels, Kazmir also has to pitch better, he was acquired partially because of his success against the Yankees and Red Sox, and he didn't come to play today.
And this defeat especially helps the Yankees. They don't match up well with the Sox at all, and now (assuming they finish the Twins off) they don't have to deal with them. Are the Angels capable of beating the Yankees? Absolutely, but the Angels are more likely to walk in intimidated and without swagger. Which is too bad, because they have a comparable talent level.
For the Angels, Kazmir also has to pitch better, he was acquired partially because of his success against the Yankees and Red Sox, and he didn't come to play today.
And this defeat especially helps the Yankees. They don't match up well with the Sox at all, and now (assuming they finish the Twins off) they don't have to deal with them. Are the Angels capable of beating the Yankees? Absolutely, but the Angels are more likely to walk in intimidated and without swagger. Which is too bad, because they have a comparable talent level.
Friday, October 9, 2009
Thoughts on Charlie Manuel
Watching Game 2 of the Phillies vs. Rockies I was shock. The Phillies don't have a bad bullpen other than the closer mess. But after Cole Hamels predictably didn't pitch very well at all, he decided to use the predicted Game 3 and Game 4 starters J.A. Happ and Joe Blanton out of the bullpen. Needless to say, I, among others watching, were befuddled.
Now Pedro Martinez will be starting Game 3, a game they're now very likely to lose, as a pitcher really needs a solid fastball to be a decent pitcher in Colorado, and Pedro just doesn't have that anymore. Jason Hammel's a much worse pitcher in Colorado than he is anywhere else, so at least the Phillies have that going for them. This now means Cliff Lee has to pitch Game 4, leaving any of Happ, Blanton, or Hamels open for Game 5. Even though Happ only pitched 4 pitches, the way Manuel used him leaves one to think he's going to be used as a LOOGY out of the bullpen, and not the rotation.
And congrats to the Dodgers for proving me dead wrong by beating the Cardinals in both games started by Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter (a little help by Matt Holliday didn't hurt).
Now Pedro Martinez will be starting Game 3, a game they're now very likely to lose, as a pitcher really needs a solid fastball to be a decent pitcher in Colorado, and Pedro just doesn't have that anymore. Jason Hammel's a much worse pitcher in Colorado than he is anywhere else, so at least the Phillies have that going for them. This now means Cliff Lee has to pitch Game 4, leaving any of Happ, Blanton, or Hamels open for Game 5. Even though Happ only pitched 4 pitches, the way Manuel used him leaves one to think he's going to be used as a LOOGY out of the bullpen, and not the rotation.
And congrats to the Dodgers for proving me dead wrong by beating the Cardinals in both games started by Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter (a little help by Matt Holliday didn't hurt).
Wednesday, October 7, 2009
Thoughts on Tigers-Twins and a Playoff Preview
So with the Tigers losing today, my pick for the World Series is kaput. In a 5 or 7 game series, in which you face Edwin Jackson, Rick Porcello, and Justin Verlander 5 out of 5, or 6 out of 7 games, you aren't going to win more of those games than the Tigers. Not happening. However, the Twins only had to beat Porcello once, and they did that.
Moreso, Jim Leyland made the mistake of removing Porcello, who had just retired nine straight before giving up the Jason Kubel solo shot, and then a walk to the next batter. He removed him for Zach Minor. Seriously? Porcello's pitching very well, they have the lead, and he takes him out for a mediocre bullpen arm. Who promptly blew it. Porcello didn't lose, Leyland managed them out of the game. He managed scared, which is probably a result of how they struggled to finish out the season.
Rick Porcello's essentially beat the Twins with just his fastball, and the Twins can hit. Heads up to the American League, he's going to be one to fear next year.
Alas, the Twins are now in, and will face the Yankees in the ALDS. While the Tigers would have pushed this series to 5 games, probably winning the series. The Yankees will win this in 3. They hit better, they pitch better (both out of the pen and in the rotation) and sadly play better defense, which isn't saying much because the Yanks don't play great defense anyways. Yankees in 3.
In the other AL series, I think the Red Sox are coming away in 5 in probably the most evenly matched series in the playoffs. In Game 1, it's a tossup as Lackey's been great since the All-Star break (3.05 ERA) and Lester's a surefire ace. Game 2 pits Jered Weaver vs. modern playoff-legend Jose Beckett in another tossup. In game 3, the Angels Kazmir, who's been on fire since he's arrived in L.A. should take out youngster and eternal top-prospect Clay Buchholz. If it gets to Game 4, the Sox will beat Joe Saunders with whomever they decide to throw at him. Figure Game 5 is Lackey vs. Lester or Beckett in another tossup, a coin flip is more likely to predict the winner than any logical, analytical solution. Red Sox steal Game 1 or Game 2, and win Game 5 to take the series in 5.
In the NL, the Cards are going to throttle the Dodgers. The Dodgers are deep in starting pitching, but in five games, it's better to have 2 aces than a group of 4 solid starters. In a seven game series, this would be a trickier choice, but St. Louis isn't going to lose a 5 game series when 4 of those games are started by Carpenter and Wainwright. And Joe Torre is proving what an idiot he is by starting Ronnie Belliard (who's not completely healthy either) over Orlando Hudson, and tagging Vincente Padilla for the Game 3 start over Chad Billingsley. Giving Belliard some extra starts down the stretch when he's got the hot hand is understandable. But it's the playoffs, one's best off playing is superior players, and Hudson is better on both sides of the ball. And I don't care if Billingsley's struggled a little in the 2nd half, he's been getting his shit together, and Padilla's a notorious choke artist. Cards in 3 games, 4 at worst.
Dodgers-Rockies provides the other particularly interesting playoff division series, but one which has just dramatically changed with Jorge De La Rosa getting hurt. Game 1 should go to the Phillies, although if Ubaldo Jimenez is on his game, I could be dead wrong. Game 2 will go to the Rockies, as I expect Aaron Cook to be the slightly above-average starter he is, while I expect the Rockies to pound Cole Hamels. Rockies will come back with a Game 3 victory, as Hammel's been a much better pitcher in Colorado, and Joe Blanton's never pitched in Coors, and isn't a very good road pitcher anyways. This is where the series becomes unpredictable, because I like the Phillies if they start Pedro Martinez Game 4, and push Lee to Game 5, but odds are they pitch Lee here, and Hamels has to throw Game 5 and Ubaldo proves who's the best young gun in the NL. Since I don't know what Charlie Manuel is going to do, (mostly because he's a moron), I'm picking the Rockies to win in 5 since Brad Lidge will probably blow a game they were supposed to win.
The ALCS and NLCS are much more difficult to predict, because there's no guess as to how much rest everyone has, what the starting pitcher matchups are, etc. But the Rockies should take out the Cardinals in a longer series because while the Cardinals should take 3 of 4 pitched by Carp and Wainwright, the Rockies should win the other 3 against Joel Pineiro and Smoltz/Lohse. Rockies in 7.
In the ALCS, the Red Sox are going to prove why this Yankees team isn't built for playoff baseball. They are going to simply out-pitch the Yankees in every facet of the game. They match up better in ever slot, one through four, in the playoff rotation, and they have many more arms to use out of the bullpen.
This is probably the most fun matchup in the playoffs. A young Rockies team is going to have much, much more energy than the BoSox. This is a team that plays as hard as anyone, and that might simply where out a Red Sox team that has been here before and won't have the same adrenaline. On the other hand, outside Ubaldo, the entire Red Sox starting pitching is better than the Rockies,and the Sox have a much better bullpen. On the other hand, the Rockies can possibly outhit and probably outfield the Red Sox. Look for the Rockies to push this to Game 7, but run out of gas. Sox in 7.
Moreso, Jim Leyland made the mistake of removing Porcello, who had just retired nine straight before giving up the Jason Kubel solo shot, and then a walk to the next batter. He removed him for Zach Minor. Seriously? Porcello's pitching very well, they have the lead, and he takes him out for a mediocre bullpen arm. Who promptly blew it. Porcello didn't lose, Leyland managed them out of the game. He managed scared, which is probably a result of how they struggled to finish out the season.
Rick Porcello's essentially beat the Twins with just his fastball, and the Twins can hit. Heads up to the American League, he's going to be one to fear next year.
Alas, the Twins are now in, and will face the Yankees in the ALDS. While the Tigers would have pushed this series to 5 games, probably winning the series. The Yankees will win this in 3. They hit better, they pitch better (both out of the pen and in the rotation) and sadly play better defense, which isn't saying much because the Yanks don't play great defense anyways. Yankees in 3.
In the other AL series, I think the Red Sox are coming away in 5 in probably the most evenly matched series in the playoffs. In Game 1, it's a tossup as Lackey's been great since the All-Star break (3.05 ERA) and Lester's a surefire ace. Game 2 pits Jered Weaver vs. modern playoff-legend Jose Beckett in another tossup. In game 3, the Angels Kazmir, who's been on fire since he's arrived in L.A. should take out youngster and eternal top-prospect Clay Buchholz. If it gets to Game 4, the Sox will beat Joe Saunders with whomever they decide to throw at him. Figure Game 5 is Lackey vs. Lester or Beckett in another tossup, a coin flip is more likely to predict the winner than any logical, analytical solution. Red Sox steal Game 1 or Game 2, and win Game 5 to take the series in 5.
In the NL, the Cards are going to throttle the Dodgers. The Dodgers are deep in starting pitching, but in five games, it's better to have 2 aces than a group of 4 solid starters. In a seven game series, this would be a trickier choice, but St. Louis isn't going to lose a 5 game series when 4 of those games are started by Carpenter and Wainwright. And Joe Torre is proving what an idiot he is by starting Ronnie Belliard (who's not completely healthy either) over Orlando Hudson, and tagging Vincente Padilla for the Game 3 start over Chad Billingsley. Giving Belliard some extra starts down the stretch when he's got the hot hand is understandable. But it's the playoffs, one's best off playing is superior players, and Hudson is better on both sides of the ball. And I don't care if Billingsley's struggled a little in the 2nd half, he's been getting his shit together, and Padilla's a notorious choke artist. Cards in 3 games, 4 at worst.
Dodgers-Rockies provides the other particularly interesting playoff division series, but one which has just dramatically changed with Jorge De La Rosa getting hurt. Game 1 should go to the Phillies, although if Ubaldo Jimenez is on his game, I could be dead wrong. Game 2 will go to the Rockies, as I expect Aaron Cook to be the slightly above-average starter he is, while I expect the Rockies to pound Cole Hamels. Rockies will come back with a Game 3 victory, as Hammel's been a much better pitcher in Colorado, and Joe Blanton's never pitched in Coors, and isn't a very good road pitcher anyways. This is where the series becomes unpredictable, because I like the Phillies if they start Pedro Martinez Game 4, and push Lee to Game 5, but odds are they pitch Lee here, and Hamels has to throw Game 5 and Ubaldo proves who's the best young gun in the NL. Since I don't know what Charlie Manuel is going to do, (mostly because he's a moron), I'm picking the Rockies to win in 5 since Brad Lidge will probably blow a game they were supposed to win.
The ALCS and NLCS are much more difficult to predict, because there's no guess as to how much rest everyone has, what the starting pitcher matchups are, etc. But the Rockies should take out the Cardinals in a longer series because while the Cardinals should take 3 of 4 pitched by Carp and Wainwright, the Rockies should win the other 3 against Joel Pineiro and Smoltz/Lohse. Rockies in 7.
In the ALCS, the Red Sox are going to prove why this Yankees team isn't built for playoff baseball. They are going to simply out-pitch the Yankees in every facet of the game. They match up better in ever slot, one through four, in the playoff rotation, and they have many more arms to use out of the bullpen.
This is probably the most fun matchup in the playoffs. A young Rockies team is going to have much, much more energy than the BoSox. This is a team that plays as hard as anyone, and that might simply where out a Red Sox team that has been here before and won't have the same adrenaline. On the other hand, outside Ubaldo, the entire Red Sox starting pitching is better than the Rockies,and the Sox have a much better bullpen. On the other hand, the Rockies can possibly outhit and probably outfield the Red Sox. Look for the Rockies to push this to Game 7, but run out of gas. Sox in 7.
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