So this blog entry will be split into two parts, a look back at the 25 randomly bold predictions I made pre-season, and an intense and intricate division-by-division breakdown.
First up:
1.) Brandon Wood hits 18 home runs before the All-Star break, and make the world's best manager look foolish for never playing him regularly. - Brandon Wood has batted .171 with 3 HR's. Whoops! 0-1.
2.) Pedro Alvarez will make it to the majors by the All-Star break, and will remind everyone how bad Andy LaRoche is. - Pedro Alvarez has only hit .214 with 3 homers. But he made it to the majors before the All-Star break, and in a way people have been reminded how bad Andy LaRoche is. 1 for two on predictions, I'm on the baord!
3.) Phillip Hughes will pitch very well through July, but will start to tire out because he's used to relieving and all the long outings will wear on his arm. - Incomplete, because it's only July, but rumors are the Yankees might go trade for a starter with Joba Chamberlain, and send Hughes to the pen to protect his arm. Looks like I'm going to get this one too, but I won't count this one just yet.
4.) Tommy Hanson's ERA will be over 4. - 4.13 ERA. Damn I'm good. 2-3.
5.) A.J. Burnett pitches fewer innings than Ben Sheets. - 112.2 to 107. 3-4.
6.) Ben Sheets will not be traded, but the A's will take the draft pick compensation instead. - Not looking good, as it appears Sheets will not be Type A or Type B, so he will probably be traded. Odds are I lose this one. 3-5.
7.) Ryan Ludwick hits lower than .250. - .273. Crap. 3-6.
8.) Of all those "top prospects" the Phillies traded, less than half will give a respectable performance at the MLB level this year. I think Michael Taylor and Lou Marson will do well, Drabek, Donald, Knapp, D'Arnoud, and Carrasco will struggle. - Donald is hitting .274 in 146 AB's. Respectable. Lou Marson is hitting .191 in 141 AB's. Weak sauce. Neither Carrasco or Knapp have made it to the MLB this year. Neither have D'Arnoud or Drabek. Michael Taylor is still in the A's system. That's less than half who haven't even made it to the MLB, let alone play respectably. I won't count the prediction of Marson playing well and Donald not cloud this clear win for me. 4-7.
9.) Jorge Cantu is traded to an NL West team. - Incomplete, trade deadline not passed yet, so it's still possible.
10.) Zero no-hitters will be thrown this year. - Dead wrong, almost laughably so. 4-8.
11.) One one-hitter will be thrown. It will be by a Met, he will give up the no-no in the bottom of the 9th, with a homerun, to lose the game 1-0. The pitcher will be Oliver Perez. The hitter will be some light hitting second baseman or a backup catcher. This is the reality of being a Mets fan right now, that this scenario seems entirely possible. - I lose this one, although it wasn't very serious when I made it, so I'm not going to count it.
12.) The Nationals don't take Bryce Harper with the number one overall pick in the draft. - Wrong. 4-9.
13.) The Cubs' starting OF of Byrd, Soriano, Fukodome hit less than 50 HR's combined. - 32 HR's at the break. Not looking good, but an injury could easily help me win this one, incomplete.
14.) The Diamondbacks' OF of Jackson, Young, Upton hit over 75 HR's combined. - This is tough, as Conor Jackson was traded, which was not anticipated. Upton/Young have 29 HR's combined. I sit at 30 HR's. I will give myself a win if Upton/Young hit more than 30 combined HR's post-All-Star break. As it stands, incomplete.
15.) Jason Heyward will be sent back to the minors by the end of May. -He got hurt in June, but that doesn't count. 4-10.
16.) Scott Feldman wins 13 or more games. - 5 wins at the break, not looking good. 4-11.
17.) Jorge De La Rosa regresses to his normal "great stuff but is too inconsistent to be good all year long." - He got hurt, but wasn't pitching great anyhow before the injury, so I will take this anyhow. 5-12.
18.) The current idea of floating divisions will be killed by the owners eventually, but a new idea with more free flow between divisions that in no way has geographical bearing will become popular and gain steam. - I don't even remember what I meant by this. Doesn't count.
19.) The NL will win the All-Star game. - Damn straight. 6-13.
20.) The Rockies win 105 games, win the pennant, but lose the World Series to the Rays. - Incomplete.
21.) The Dodgers will be the NL's biggest bust, winning fewer than 85 games. - Still have time, but not looking good for me as they sit at 49-39. 6-14.
22.) Tigers' power arm Daniel Schlereth will say something to prove that his father's obnoxious talking runs in the family. - I'm going to take a win on this considering I've heard his Dad say so many dumb things over the course of this year that his son is going to get punished for it here. 7-15.
23.) Curt Schilling will once again be the most common member of the Red Sox in the media, even in retirement. - Made big news with his proclamation that Stephen Strasburg was the best pitcher in baseball before he had even reached the majors yet. Although to his credit, he has been absolutely correct on that statement. 8-16.
24.) Bert Blyleven, Barry Larkin, and Roberto Alomar will be elected to the Hall of Fame, but no first-timers will be eligible (look out for Jeff Bagwell in a few years, but otherwise it's a weak group). - Too far off, incomplete.
25.) The Texas Rangers will take the title of "surprisingly good pitching" from the Rockies this year.- I think it's fair to give them that title based on how well they pitched this year. 9-17. More than half right/seems like they're going to be right.
to be continued...
Wednesday, July 14, 2010
Tuesday, July 6, 2010
Thoughts on the Trade Deadline and All-Star Teams
For a second year in a row, Carlie Manuel blundered his All-Star team selections. I understand he had even less room to wiggle, but there were some huge mistakes on his part. I'm not going to rant on the snubs, because there are too many. But for god sakes, he probably selected the first part-time position player to the All-Star team ever. Omar Infante? REALLY? And then he went and selected two setup men. I understand when mangers select one in the rare occasion, or reward their own as a lifetime achievement award type of thing (the Mike Stanton award as I like to call it), but Arthur Rhodes and Evan Meek? Wow. Just wow.
The trade deadline is fast, fast approaching, and Cliff Lee still dominates the trade rumors. Let's get this straight, he's getting traded, and he's going for at least one top 50 prospect, but not much more. The C.C. Sabathia price if you will. I'm betting on the Twins trading Wilson Ramos for him, he's the definition of a blocked prospect after the Twins locked up Mauer this offseason. Mets have a shot if the Twins don't like the price and think Wilmer Flores is a legit future star. The Tigers, Reds, and Angels could also be potential suitors.
The trade deadline is fast, fast approaching, and Cliff Lee still dominates the trade rumors. Let's get this straight, he's getting traded, and he's going for at least one top 50 prospect, but not much more. The C.C. Sabathia price if you will. I'm betting on the Twins trading Wilson Ramos for him, he's the definition of a blocked prospect after the Twins locked up Mauer this offseason. Mets have a shot if the Twins don't like the price and think Wilmer Flores is a legit future star. The Tigers, Reds, and Angels could also be potential suitors.
Monday, June 21, 2010
Thoughts on Being a Cruddy Blogger
So I haven't made a post in over a month. And I don't know why I haven't, considering I have so much free time, but oh well.
Biggest story over the past month: Strasburg. I have caught the end of two of his outings on TV, and he's looked disgustingly good. He has the stuff to be the greatest pitcher of the modern era. Those crazy seasons by Pedro may not seem so unique after he's been around for 5 years. The Nationals seem to think they can make a playoff push this year, so they may not be sellers at the deadline (Capps, Willingham, Morgan sticking around probably).
Also notable is the emergence of Delmon Young. It took a few more years to happen than it should've, but he seems to have turned a corner.
Alex Rios has been ridiculously good this year, although one wouldn't trust him to keep this up all year.
Pedro Alvarez and Mike Stanton, probably the 3rd and 4th best prospects heading into this year, have both been promoted. Pirates cut Iwamura and LaRoche is moving to 2nd to make room.
The Mets have benefited greatly from R.A. Dickey and Takahashi replacing Maine and Perez in the rotation. They also just sent down Jenrry Mejia to work on being a starter. With the return of Igarashi to the bullpen, Mejia isn't needed as much. However, the Mets bullpen isn't exactly blanking the scoreboard. Feliciano and K-Rod have been great all year, but Nieve especially, among others, has struggled. But one wonders if Mejia will see the majors again this year, with the rotation seemingly set with Santana, Pelfrey, Niese, Takahashi, and Dickey, and Perez/Maine spending time on the DL with "injuries."
The Al East has evolved into a very tight race, with the Yankees streaking into a one-game lead over both the Red Sox and Rays, the latter of whom has been atop the division most of the year. Gotta hand it to Boston for staying tough when they struggled early, and for putting up an impressive showing against Ubaldo Jimenez tonight.
Fredi Gonzalez was fired because the Marlins aren't winning the NL East. In case you haven't noticed, their owner thinks their team is stocked with talent, and should have won the NL East the last three years, not the Phillies. Earth to Jeffry Loria, you have started Cameron Maybin, Cody Ross, Jeremy Hermida, etc. for long extended periods of time. The best first baseman you've had is Gaby Sanchez, your best catcher has been Miguel Olivo, and your starting pitching as a whole has been inconsistent at best and your most consistent closer has been Kevin Gregg. This is not a formula for winning division titles! Rumor is that they're going after Bobby Valentine for their new manager. I'll be bitter when that hapeens, Bobby V is my favorite manager, and I wish he was still on the Mets. Fredi Gonzalez will find another job, jsut like Joe Girardi, and he will undoubtedly be at least a good manager.
Biggest story over the past month: Strasburg. I have caught the end of two of his outings on TV, and he's looked disgustingly good. He has the stuff to be the greatest pitcher of the modern era. Those crazy seasons by Pedro may not seem so unique after he's been around for 5 years. The Nationals seem to think they can make a playoff push this year, so they may not be sellers at the deadline (Capps, Willingham, Morgan sticking around probably).
Also notable is the emergence of Delmon Young. It took a few more years to happen than it should've, but he seems to have turned a corner.
Alex Rios has been ridiculously good this year, although one wouldn't trust him to keep this up all year.
Pedro Alvarez and Mike Stanton, probably the 3rd and 4th best prospects heading into this year, have both been promoted. Pirates cut Iwamura and LaRoche is moving to 2nd to make room.
The Mets have benefited greatly from R.A. Dickey and Takahashi replacing Maine and Perez in the rotation. They also just sent down Jenrry Mejia to work on being a starter. With the return of Igarashi to the bullpen, Mejia isn't needed as much. However, the Mets bullpen isn't exactly blanking the scoreboard. Feliciano and K-Rod have been great all year, but Nieve especially, among others, has struggled. But one wonders if Mejia will see the majors again this year, with the rotation seemingly set with Santana, Pelfrey, Niese, Takahashi, and Dickey, and Perez/Maine spending time on the DL with "injuries."
The Al East has evolved into a very tight race, with the Yankees streaking into a one-game lead over both the Red Sox and Rays, the latter of whom has been atop the division most of the year. Gotta hand it to Boston for staying tough when they struggled early, and for putting up an impressive showing against Ubaldo Jimenez tonight.
Fredi Gonzalez was fired because the Marlins aren't winning the NL East. In case you haven't noticed, their owner thinks their team is stocked with talent, and should have won the NL East the last three years, not the Phillies. Earth to Jeffry Loria, you have started Cameron Maybin, Cody Ross, Jeremy Hermida, etc. for long extended periods of time. The best first baseman you've had is Gaby Sanchez, your best catcher has been Miguel Olivo, and your starting pitching as a whole has been inconsistent at best and your most consistent closer has been Kevin Gregg. This is not a formula for winning division titles! Rumor is that they're going after Bobby Valentine for their new manager. I'll be bitter when that hapeens, Bobby V is my favorite manager, and I wish he was still on the Mets. Fredi Gonzalez will find another job, jsut like Joe Girardi, and he will undoubtedly be at least a good manager.
Thursday, May 13, 2010
Thoughts of Various Natures
Now's as good as time as ever to spout out some random thoughts division by division. Let's start in everyone's least favorite division the AL East.
AL East - What? The Rays are in first place a month into the season? No way! Yes way, what I've always said is the most talented roster in the majors has finally put it all together and are just trying to hold off the Yankees in attempt to capture another division crown. I don't understand what makes the Yankees so good, but maybe it's when the nobodies step in when the stars go down or aren't producing. See Brett Gardner. The Red Sox are called a mess, but are still one game over .500 and not even 5 games out and the season's just over a month old, so they have plenty of time to catch up. Toronto's played well, but that won't be happening much longer. Nice to see Travis Snider coming along.
AL Central - I don't understand the Twins. They have Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, and a bunch of other good but not great players. Jason Kubel's has to play better for them though. And Delmon Young is actually hitting above average for a corner outfielder, which I was beginning to think will never happen. Tigers are staying close, and Justin Verlander isn't even pitching well yet, not to mention Scherzer or Porcello pitching like they should have never graduated from High-A ball. And Kansas City is still bad, at least Mike Aviles is looking good for them, even if it looks like they've given up on Alex Gordon.
AL West - If I'm the Angels, and I'm 6 games under .500, I'm not still starting Brandon Wood. I don't know why he's not hitting, but he's not, and it's making me look stupid. For as you can remember from March 1st:
NL East - No team is more than 4.5 games out of first. Every team except Washington has spent time in first place since April 7th, and even they have spent some time in 2nd, and if I'm right, are over .500 in May for the first time in a few years. I still got the Mets for first, although Carlos Beltran back before the All-Star break is looking less likely. By 2012, Ike Davis will be known as the best first-baseman in the NL East. Washington was just planning to bide some time until Strasburg showed up, and it looks like they're doing that. It'd be really crazy if they're still in it a month from now, and he swings the whole race.
NL Central - Cincinnati is tied for first with St. Louis, and that also corresponds with Joey Votto finally coming around. Not exactly a surprise. This team will hit, but more than likely their abysmal starting pitching will keep them out of it. The league's most boring division, there's really not much to say here.
NL West - The division standings are almost flip-flopped from what I thought they would be. But some things are apparent -- Dodgers just aren't that good, Arizona needs some pitching, and Webb to hurry back, Colorado refuses to play consistently, San Francisco can really pitch, and hits just a little better than last year, and San Diego's surprised me, because I don't' see a whole lot of talent on that roster, and this is after they traded Jake Peavy away. Maybe they should trade Adrian Gonzalez away too, it might turn them into a 95-win team. On second thought don't. But what this start means is that they're less likely to trade him away midseason.
AL East - What? The Rays are in first place a month into the season? No way! Yes way, what I've always said is the most talented roster in the majors has finally put it all together and are just trying to hold off the Yankees in attempt to capture another division crown. I don't understand what makes the Yankees so good, but maybe it's when the nobodies step in when the stars go down or aren't producing. See Brett Gardner. The Red Sox are called a mess, but are still one game over .500 and not even 5 games out and the season's just over a month old, so they have plenty of time to catch up. Toronto's played well, but that won't be happening much longer. Nice to see Travis Snider coming along.
AL Central - I don't understand the Twins. They have Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, and a bunch of other good but not great players. Jason Kubel's has to play better for them though. And Delmon Young is actually hitting above average for a corner outfielder, which I was beginning to think will never happen. Tigers are staying close, and Justin Verlander isn't even pitching well yet, not to mention Scherzer or Porcello pitching like they should have never graduated from High-A ball. And Kansas City is still bad, at least Mike Aviles is looking good for them, even if it looks like they've given up on Alex Gordon.
AL West - If I'm the Angels, and I'm 6 games under .500, I'm not still starting Brandon Wood. I don't know why he's not hitting, but he's not, and it's making me look stupid. For as you can remember from March 1st:
" 1.) Brandon Wood hits 18 home runs before the All-Star break, and make the world's best manager look foolish for never playing him regularly. "Whoops! The Rangers are neck and neck with the Texas Rangers for first place. And Dallas Braden pitched a perfect game. Suck it A-Rod. No really though, to be frank, Braden doesn't know Rodriguez, so the attack on him being a bad teammate isn't fair, and he pitched a fit about something that's really not that big of a deal in baseball. No, you're not supposed to step on the mound, but it's not like it's one of the ten commandments of baseball. If you're really angry, throw at his head the next time he comes up, but trying to start this feud in the media is ridiculous. Kudos to Rodriguez for continually taking the high road.
NL East - No team is more than 4.5 games out of first. Every team except Washington has spent time in first place since April 7th, and even they have spent some time in 2nd, and if I'm right, are over .500 in May for the first time in a few years. I still got the Mets for first, although Carlos Beltran back before the All-Star break is looking less likely. By 2012, Ike Davis will be known as the best first-baseman in the NL East. Washington was just planning to bide some time until Strasburg showed up, and it looks like they're doing that. It'd be really crazy if they're still in it a month from now, and he swings the whole race.
NL Central - Cincinnati is tied for first with St. Louis, and that also corresponds with Joey Votto finally coming around. Not exactly a surprise. This team will hit, but more than likely their abysmal starting pitching will keep them out of it. The league's most boring division, there's really not much to say here.
NL West - The division standings are almost flip-flopped from what I thought they would be. But some things are apparent -- Dodgers just aren't that good, Arizona needs some pitching, and Webb to hurry back, Colorado refuses to play consistently, San Francisco can really pitch, and hits just a little better than last year, and San Diego's surprised me, because I don't' see a whole lot of talent on that roster, and this is after they traded Jake Peavy away. Maybe they should trade Adrian Gonzalez away too, it might turn them into a 95-win team. On second thought don't. But what this start means is that they're less likely to trade him away midseason.
Friday, May 7, 2010
Thoughts on Starlin Castro
In what's probably the biggest callup since Justin Smoak, the Cubs called up Starlin Castro to play short. I don't want to sound overdramatic, but the Cubs' next 5-10 ride on this guy. The Cubs haven't really had a great SS in over a decade, trying everything from Ronny Cedeno to trading for Nomar from the Sox to Ryan "The Riot" Theriot. While Theriot is seemingly fit to pay the position, Starlin Castro could be the star they've been searching for.
For the Cubs, it's important for Castro to be their next star, but if he ends up just being borderline All-Star, that'd be acceptable. All of the Cubs' starpower is old or aging fast, and they need some youth or they will be forced to invest in more expensive free agents, that are probably older, because most prime free agents aren't reaching free agency until later in their careers, and thus it'll become increasingly difficult to sustain this run of relative success they've had most of the decade.
But Aramis Ramirez, Derrek Lee, Carlos Zambrano, and Alfonso Soriano aren't trending up, and a changing of the guard is in order. With his impressive debut today, Castro looks like he could be the first step in rejuvenating all the old guys.
For the Cubs, it's important for Castro to be their next star, but if he ends up just being borderline All-Star, that'd be acceptable. All of the Cubs' starpower is old or aging fast, and they need some youth or they will be forced to invest in more expensive free agents, that are probably older, because most prime free agents aren't reaching free agency until later in their careers, and thus it'll become increasingly difficult to sustain this run of relative success they've had most of the decade.
But Aramis Ramirez, Derrek Lee, Carlos Zambrano, and Alfonso Soriano aren't trending up, and a changing of the guard is in order. With his impressive debut today, Castro looks like he could be the first step in rejuvenating all the old guys.
Monday, April 26, 2010
Thoughts on Ryan Howard's Riches
Sometimes one contract can ruin an entire market. It's not the player's fault, and certainly in this case the finger pointing shouldn't be pointed at Ryan Howard. But the Phillies screwed the market for at least a handful of teams with first baseman about to reach free agency this season or next.
Put it simply, his combined deals since he became an MLB player are almost identical to the one that Mark Teixeira received on the open market. Once he reaches his new deal in two years, he will probably be the second highest player in the MLB behind Alex Rodriguez (although who knows now, some much, much better first-basemen will hit the open market by then, and could surpass this deal).
As Rob Neyer put it, even in his best years, Ryan Howard is maybe, maybe one of the best 30 players in baseball, if you choose to look at a very specific set of stats. So what will happen when Adrian Gonzalez, Prince Fielder, and Albert Pujols approach free agency? This has to mean Pujols should get $30 million/year for 7 years, and Fielder should expect at least the same deal as Howard, even if he will be taking it at a younger age.
Howard should take up anywhere between 15%-20% of the Phillies payroll in the next several years. It also means they probably can't keep Jason Werth, who's primed for big money this offseason (Yankees or Giants maybe?). That's ok, because they have Dominic Brown, but it'd be better if they had Werth locked up up long term and could either trade Brown, Victorino or Ibanez away for a decent return (Werth will probably shake out as a "B" free agent, although he has a chance to grab an "A").
The Phillies should have waited, seen him declne as he aged, and used that as leverage. They probably could of at least shaved him down to $18 million a year. And they won't be able to keep Halladay either probably, as he'll want big money. The advantage of their big farm was they would have options as all their inexpensive talent became expensive. Now they're sticking themselves in a corner.
Put it simply, his combined deals since he became an MLB player are almost identical to the one that Mark Teixeira received on the open market. Once he reaches his new deal in two years, he will probably be the second highest player in the MLB behind Alex Rodriguez (although who knows now, some much, much better first-basemen will hit the open market by then, and could surpass this deal).
As Rob Neyer put it, even in his best years, Ryan Howard is maybe, maybe one of the best 30 players in baseball, if you choose to look at a very specific set of stats. So what will happen when Adrian Gonzalez, Prince Fielder, and Albert Pujols approach free agency? This has to mean Pujols should get $30 million/year for 7 years, and Fielder should expect at least the same deal as Howard, even if he will be taking it at a younger age.
Howard should take up anywhere between 15%-20% of the Phillies payroll in the next several years. It also means they probably can't keep Jason Werth, who's primed for big money this offseason (Yankees or Giants maybe?). That's ok, because they have Dominic Brown, but it'd be better if they had Werth locked up up long term and could either trade Brown, Victorino or Ibanez away for a decent return (Werth will probably shake out as a "B" free agent, although he has a chance to grab an "A").
The Phillies should have waited, seen him declne as he aged, and used that as leverage. They probably could of at least shaved him down to $18 million a year. And they won't be able to keep Halladay either probably, as he'll want big money. The advantage of their big farm was they would have options as all their inexpensive talent became expensive. Now they're sticking themselves in a corner.
Wednesday, April 21, 2010
Thoughts on the Most Expensive Reliever Ever
The Cubs, mostly Lou Pinella it seems, decided to move Carlos Zambrano to the bullpen. When I read this headline, I of course did a double-take. To better express how bad this move is, I'll turn to my favorite fantasy writer, Andy Behrens:
What this really appears to be is that the Cubs are panicking. They aren't hitting, their bullpen is blowing most leads they do have, and they certainly don't seem to appear capable of winning the division or at least the Wild Card. I tend to applaud managers for trying new things, but not when they're clearly ridiculous.
Luckily for them, Zambrano's taking it well. Publicly at least, who knows if there was a showdown in the office. But maybe this is a time for Zambrano to go off, show some emotion, vent some frustration, and tell the media what everyone else already knows: the Cubs' front office hasn't been making good decisions for awhile now, and perhaps it's time for a chance and some new life.
"Total organizational failure. Even if Zambrano is successful in the setup role, this is an atrocious use of resources. This is neither bold nor innovative. It's just insane. One of the all-time panic moves. In fact, it's in the panic move hall of fame."Basically, the Cubs have Gorzelanny, Silva, Wells, Zambrano, Dempster, and Lilly returning. Zambrano's stats have not been horrible save the first outing. Other than that horid performance he has a 4 ERA, hardly demotion worthy. Let's remember how bad Silva is, how bad Gorzelanny had to pitch to make the Pirates think he couldn't help their rotation, and that Dempster is a former closer and their bullpen needs relievers and he'd certainly be a nice addition for them. Plus Zambrano's inflated salary, all things being even, is just the Cubs wasting their money.
What this really appears to be is that the Cubs are panicking. They aren't hitting, their bullpen is blowing most leads they do have, and they certainly don't seem to appear capable of winning the division or at least the Wild Card. I tend to applaud managers for trying new things, but not when they're clearly ridiculous.
Luckily for them, Zambrano's taking it well. Publicly at least, who knows if there was a showdown in the office. But maybe this is a time for Zambrano to go off, show some emotion, vent some frustration, and tell the media what everyone else already knows: the Cubs' front office hasn't been making good decisions for awhile now, and perhaps it's time for a chance and some new life.
Monday, April 19, 2010
Thoughts on the Year's First Big Promotion
Recently it was reported that the Mets would call up Ike Davis to play first as soon as they felt comfortable sending their 13th pitcher back down to the minors, which was necessary after a 20 inning win last Saturday.
Davis, ranked the 68th best prospect according to Baseball America coming into the season, scorched the ball in Spring Training, but with Daniel Murphy, Fernando Tatis, Frank Catalanatto and Mike Jacobs to man first, they felt they were able to wait on him, and sent him back to the minors.
But since then, Murphy got hurt, Jacobs has struggled, and the other two aren't players who should be starting at first more than a game or two at a time. Meanwhile, Davis has continued to rack up hits in AAA, carrying his hot ST over into the regular season.
Davis' power is real. Maybe he's not quite Mike Jacobs strong, but few people are. But he's also a solid hitter for average, and has a reputation for being nimble around the bag (despite some struggles there in ST). He's not a base-stealer, but isn't immobile like Jason Giambi, Ryan Howard, or Justin Morneau. I project him as a .275/.340/.500 type hitter who could slug anywhere between 25-35 homers a year. Certainly the Mets' first baseman of the future, and for now, the present, at least until Murphy comes back.
Davis, ranked the 68th best prospect according to Baseball America coming into the season, scorched the ball in Spring Training, but with Daniel Murphy, Fernando Tatis, Frank Catalanatto and Mike Jacobs to man first, they felt they were able to wait on him, and sent him back to the minors.
But since then, Murphy got hurt, Jacobs has struggled, and the other two aren't players who should be starting at first more than a game or two at a time. Meanwhile, Davis has continued to rack up hits in AAA, carrying his hot ST over into the regular season.
Davis' power is real. Maybe he's not quite Mike Jacobs strong, but few people are. But he's also a solid hitter for average, and has a reputation for being nimble around the bag (despite some struggles there in ST). He's not a base-stealer, but isn't immobile like Jason Giambi, Ryan Howard, or Justin Morneau. I project him as a .275/.340/.500 type hitter who could slug anywhere between 25-35 homers a year. Certainly the Mets' first baseman of the future, and for now, the present, at least until Murphy comes back.
Thoughts on the First 2 Weeks
As the first two weeks have gone by, it's time to take a preliminary look at what I've been saying this offseason, and make dramatic, sweeping, hasty conclusions, concessions, and pats-on-the-back to myself. Or not, because my name isn't Jon Heyman. Zing.
But I'm going to make a couple of reactions, going division by division.
But I'm going to make a couple of reactions, going division by division.
Al East: Many analysts said the Rays would need to get off to a hot start this year if they wanted to stay in it and avoid a mini-firesale later in the summer. Instead, they're just wondering if they can save money by dumping Pat Burrel. Reid Brignac has been the nicest surprise player in the division, with David Ortiz probably being the biggest disappointment, since he looked as if he was reclaiming some of the old Big Papi magic in the second half of last season. Mark Teixeira is off to another slow start, but no one's worried, he even hit a homer today.
AL Central: Francisco Liriano is off to a nice start, which is encouraging since he hasn't looked this good since he was a rookie. The Tigers can't ask for much more out of Austin Jackson, who's been superb (.340 AVG). Kansas City should be happy they aren't in last, Jason Kendall and Jose Guillen batting a combined .357 helps a lot.
AL West: Brandon Wood is struggling. I'm not feeling so good right now about his 18 HR's before the break. He'll figure it out, it might take him a little more time though. Oakland surprising a lot of people (not me) by jumping out hot out of the gate.
NL East: Heyward's making me look silly right now, but I still think he's going to struggle a lot later on in the year once pitchers have a game-plan for him. Marlins are essentially the same team as last year, Nate Robertson has been a nice surprise for them, but c'mon, it's Nate Robertson. Hamels tossed a great one today, but earlier he had done nothing to qualm the "what's wrong with Cole Hamels" talk. The answer is still that he doesn't have a good breaking ball anymore, but Philly lovers (cough cough ESPN) still think he's going to be a Cy Yong type guy. Mets have struggled out of the gate, but it's partially understandably, as they've played the Rockies (best NL team), Cardinals (going to win NL Central), Marlins (wild card contender), for 9 of their 12 games. They've seen Carpenter, Josh Johnson, Nolasco, and Wainwright, as well as Aaron Cook and Jorge De La Rosa. This is not a walk in the park, anyone who faces these guys for half their games should be struggling. NL's best bullpen is a nice surprise, and since they cut Jacobs, whispers of Ike Davis coming are everywhere.
NL Central: Last time Pittsburgh had a winning record 12 games into the season? Not in my lifetime. Garrett Jones already has 3 bombs. St. Louis is playing well, no surprise there. The Reds have gotten off to a slow start, mostly due to a surprisingly light hitting offense. Houston's been playing better, but that team is just ugly. Roy Oswalt pitching well though.
NL West: What a surprise, the league's most even division, is, well, even. Ubaldo Jimenez channeled his inner- AJ Burnett for a 6 BB no-hitter. However, this division is looking very much like how I and other s suspected. Arizona needs some starting pitching, LA looks a little old, Colorado is going to be a little inconsistent because they play in Coors, and San Diego can get lucky, but it can't happen too often.
AL Central: Francisco Liriano is off to a nice start, which is encouraging since he hasn't looked this good since he was a rookie. The Tigers can't ask for much more out of Austin Jackson, who's been superb (.340 AVG). Kansas City should be happy they aren't in last, Jason Kendall and Jose Guillen batting a combined .357 helps a lot.
AL West: Brandon Wood is struggling. I'm not feeling so good right now about his 18 HR's before the break. He'll figure it out, it might take him a little more time though. Oakland surprising a lot of people (not me) by jumping out hot out of the gate.
NL East: Heyward's making me look silly right now, but I still think he's going to struggle a lot later on in the year once pitchers have a game-plan for him. Marlins are essentially the same team as last year, Nate Robertson has been a nice surprise for them, but c'mon, it's Nate Robertson. Hamels tossed a great one today, but earlier he had done nothing to qualm the "what's wrong with Cole Hamels" talk. The answer is still that he doesn't have a good breaking ball anymore, but Philly lovers (cough cough ESPN) still think he's going to be a Cy Yong type guy. Mets have struggled out of the gate, but it's partially understandably, as they've played the Rockies (best NL team), Cardinals (going to win NL Central), Marlins (wild card contender), for 9 of their 12 games. They've seen Carpenter, Josh Johnson, Nolasco, and Wainwright, as well as Aaron Cook and Jorge De La Rosa. This is not a walk in the park, anyone who faces these guys for half their games should be struggling. NL's best bullpen is a nice surprise, and since they cut Jacobs, whispers of Ike Davis coming are everywhere.
NL Central: Last time Pittsburgh had a winning record 12 games into the season? Not in my lifetime. Garrett Jones already has 3 bombs. St. Louis is playing well, no surprise there. The Reds have gotten off to a slow start, mostly due to a surprisingly light hitting offense. Houston's been playing better, but that team is just ugly. Roy Oswalt pitching well though.
NL West: What a surprise, the league's most even division, is, well, even. Ubaldo Jimenez channeled his inner- AJ Burnett for a 6 BB no-hitter. However, this division is looking very much like how I and other s suspected. Arizona needs some starting pitching, LA looks a little old, Colorado is going to be a little inconsistent because they play in Coors, and San Diego can get lucky, but it can't happen too often.
Monday, March 1, 2010
Thoughts on 25 Random Predictions for 2010
So in effort to prove my baseball genius, I'm going to try and make 40 non-obvious predictions that the rest of you will think me a fool for. Hopefully I get enough right not to lose all credibility as a very-little read blogger.
1.) Brandon Wood hits 18 home runs before the All-Star break, and make the world's best manager look foolish for never playing him regularly.
2.) Pedro Alvarez will make it to the majors by the All-Star break, and will remind everyone how bad Andy LaRoche is.
3.) Phillip Hughes will pitch very well through July, but will start to tire out because he's used to relieving and all the long outings will wear on his arm.
4.) Tommy Hanson's ERA will be over 4.
5.) A.J. Burnett pitches fewer innings than Ben Sheets.
6.) Ben Sheets will not be traded, but the A's will take the draft pick compensation instead.
7.) Ryan Ludwick hits lower than .250
8.) Of all those "top prospects" the Phillies traded, less than half will give a respectable performance at the MLB level this year. I think Michael Taylor and Lou Marson will do well, Drabek, Donald, Knapp, D'Arnoud, and Carrasco will struggle.
9.) Jorge Cantu is traded to an NL West team.
10.) Zero no-hitters will be thrown this year.
11.) One one-hitter will be thrown. It will be by a Met, he will give up the no-no in the bottom of the 9th, with a homerun, to lose the game 1-0. The pitcher will be Oliver Perez. The hitter will be some light hitting second baseman or a backup catcher. This is the reality of being a Mets fan right now, that this scenario seems entirely possible.
12.) The Nationals don't take Bryce Harper with the number one overall pick in the draft.
13.) The Cubs' starting OF of Byrd, Soriano, Fukodome hit less than 50 HR's combined.
14.) The Diamondbacks' OF of Jackson, Young, Upton hit over 75 HR's combined.
15.) Jason Heyward will be sent back to the minors by the end of May.
16.) Scott Feldman wins 13 or more games
17.) Jorge De La Rosa regresses to his normal "great stuff but is too inconsistent to be good all year long."
18.) The current idea of floating divisions will be killed by the owners eventually, but a new idea with more free flow between divisions that in no way has geographical bearing will become popular and gain steam.
19.) The NL will win the All-Star game.
20.) The Rockies win 105 games, win the pennant, but lose the World Series to the Rays.
21.) The Dodgers will be the NL's biggest bust, winning fewer than 85 games.
22.) Tigers' power arm Daniel Schlereth will say something to prove that his father's obnoxious talking runs in the family.
23.) Curt Schilling will once again be the most common member of the Red Sox in the media, even in retirement.
24.) Bert Blyleven, Barry Larkin, and Roberto Alomar will be elected to the Hall of Fame, but no first-timers will be eligible (look out for Jeff Bagwell in a few years, but otherwise it's a weak group).
25.) The Texas Rangers will take the title of "surprisingly good pitching" from the Rockies this year.
1.) Brandon Wood hits 18 home runs before the All-Star break, and make the world's best manager look foolish for never playing him regularly.
2.) Pedro Alvarez will make it to the majors by the All-Star break, and will remind everyone how bad Andy LaRoche is.
3.) Phillip Hughes will pitch very well through July, but will start to tire out because he's used to relieving and all the long outings will wear on his arm.
4.) Tommy Hanson's ERA will be over 4.
5.) A.J. Burnett pitches fewer innings than Ben Sheets.
6.) Ben Sheets will not be traded, but the A's will take the draft pick compensation instead.
7.) Ryan Ludwick hits lower than .250
8.) Of all those "top prospects" the Phillies traded, less than half will give a respectable performance at the MLB level this year. I think Michael Taylor and Lou Marson will do well, Drabek, Donald, Knapp, D'Arnoud, and Carrasco will struggle.
9.) Jorge Cantu is traded to an NL West team.
10.) Zero no-hitters will be thrown this year.
11.) One one-hitter will be thrown. It will be by a Met, he will give up the no-no in the bottom of the 9th, with a homerun, to lose the game 1-0. The pitcher will be Oliver Perez. The hitter will be some light hitting second baseman or a backup catcher. This is the reality of being a Mets fan right now, that this scenario seems entirely possible.
12.) The Nationals don't take Bryce Harper with the number one overall pick in the draft.
13.) The Cubs' starting OF of Byrd, Soriano, Fukodome hit less than 50 HR's combined.
14.) The Diamondbacks' OF of Jackson, Young, Upton hit over 75 HR's combined.
15.) Jason Heyward will be sent back to the minors by the end of May.
16.) Scott Feldman wins 13 or more games
17.) Jorge De La Rosa regresses to his normal "great stuff but is too inconsistent to be good all year long."
18.) The current idea of floating divisions will be killed by the owners eventually, but a new idea with more free flow between divisions that in no way has geographical bearing will become popular and gain steam.
19.) The NL will win the All-Star game.
20.) The Rockies win 105 games, win the pennant, but lose the World Series to the Rays.
21.) The Dodgers will be the NL's biggest bust, winning fewer than 85 games.
22.) Tigers' power arm Daniel Schlereth will say something to prove that his father's obnoxious talking runs in the family.
23.) Curt Schilling will once again be the most common member of the Red Sox in the media, even in retirement.
24.) Bert Blyleven, Barry Larkin, and Roberto Alomar will be elected to the Hall of Fame, but no first-timers will be eligible (look out for Jeff Bagwell in a few years, but otherwise it's a weak group).
25.) The Texas Rangers will take the title of "surprisingly good pitching" from the Rockies this year.
Saturday, February 27, 2010
Thoughts on End of Season Awards
End of the season awards are always the toughest to predict. Individual performance varies from year to year, and there's often a correlation between the awards and the success of the team. So most of these will be shots in the dark.
AL Cy Young - Felix Hernandez - this guy is ridiculous, his performance last year would win a Cy Young nearly any other year this decade. But Zack Greinke went all late 90's Pedro Martinez on the AL. And Felix still almost won it anyhow. Chances on repeating 2009's success? I personally like Felix's better.
AL MVP - Evan Longoria - This is usually the toughest to predict. Hell, Pedroia won one when the BoSox won the division. I want to go with a player from the team with best record, which I think will be the Red Sox, but the candidate for that team with a legitimate shot I think is Kevin Youkilis, and my gut feels that isn't right. I don't see a candidate on the other two division winners, but my projected wildcard winner has Evan Longoria, who's a true superstar who shouldn't have trouble gathering votes.
NL Cy Young - Johan Santana - The Mets are going to be a media hit for their comeback this year, and Johan Santana is going to put up a Cy Young season and he's going to win the award he should have won two years ago.
NL MVP - David Wright - The same line of thinking. Wright's going to have a comeback year and also win an award he should have won a few years back. If the Mets or Wright falter, look for Pujols to win again.
AL Rookie of the Year - Brett Wallace - I don't like doubting Billy Beane when he clearly likes a player.
NL Rookie of the Year - Stephen Strasburg - He'll be up by June 1st and he's going to show everyone what the hype is all about.
AL Cy Young - Felix Hernandez - this guy is ridiculous, his performance last year would win a Cy Young nearly any other year this decade. But Zack Greinke went all late 90's Pedro Martinez on the AL. And Felix still almost won it anyhow. Chances on repeating 2009's success? I personally like Felix's better.
AL MVP - Evan Longoria - This is usually the toughest to predict. Hell, Pedroia won one when the BoSox won the division. I want to go with a player from the team with best record, which I think will be the Red Sox, but the candidate for that team with a legitimate shot I think is Kevin Youkilis, and my gut feels that isn't right. I don't see a candidate on the other two division winners, but my projected wildcard winner has Evan Longoria, who's a true superstar who shouldn't have trouble gathering votes.
NL Cy Young - Johan Santana - The Mets are going to be a media hit for their comeback this year, and Johan Santana is going to put up a Cy Young season and he's going to win the award he should have won two years ago.
NL MVP - David Wright - The same line of thinking. Wright's going to have a comeback year and also win an award he should have won a few years back. If the Mets or Wright falter, look for Pujols to win again.
AL Rookie of the Year - Brett Wallace - I don't like doubting Billy Beane when he clearly likes a player.
NL Rookie of the Year - Stephen Strasburg - He'll be up by June 1st and he's going to show everyone what the hype is all about.
Monday, February 22, 2010
Thoughts on a Season Preview - Standings
As the offseason seems to be winding down, spring training is starting, and rosters are settling, it's time to set up my pre-season predictions. Most importantly, it's time to predict end of the season standings, perhaps the most volatile of all predictions. Too many factors can swing and radically alter the end results (for example, Yankee Stadium being a launching pad, the Mets filling an entire hospital with injured players, Cubs falling apart for no reason [although that's nothing new]).
AL East
1.) Red Sox - Improved by a few wins by adding some defense to offset the loss of Jason Bay's offense.
2.) Rays - A lot of stats are pointing at the Rays being unlucky in the W-L column last year.
3.) Yankees - Everything went right last year, it's always harder to get the 2nd title in two years.
4.) Orioles - Young core getting better, young pitching finally will reach the Bigs and contribute.
5.) Blue Jays - Not much talent here, although a re-newed commitment to scouting could pay dividends in 5 years.
I was adamant last year when I said the Rays had the most talent in the MLB. And on paper, not much has changed, except instead of Kazmir, they have Wade Davis, David Price has a full year of starting experience in the MLB, and Desmond Jennings and Jeremy Hellickson should be able to contribute this year as well. Oh, and they added a closer, they could easily take first place in this division. The Red Sox are a first class organization that's great at filling holes, they upgraded or provided a suitable replacement everywhere on the diamond this offseason. It's so hard to repeat, and this Yankees team isn't as deep offensively as it was last year, and it also keeps getting older. Realistically, one could make good arguments for putting the Sox, Rays, and Yanks in any order of #1-3, although I think the Rays and Bosox will both definitely finish in first or second.
AL Central
1.) Tigers - Almost won the division last year until blowing it in the last week. But it's hard to say whether this team actually got any better from last year.
2.) Twins - How did this team win the division last year? How?
3.) White Sox - A full year out of Gordon Beckham will help this team out, but it's really time for this team to rebuild drastically.
4.) Indians - Would finish 4th or 5th in any AL division.
5.) Royals - Zack Greinke can't pitch every game, and Billy Butler can't take every AB.
This is the worst division in the MLB, bar none. None of these teams would finish any better than 2nd in any other MLB division. Tigers have the most upside with Verlander/Porcello/Scherzer/Bonderman/Galaragga in the rotation, and adding both Johnny Damon and Austin Jackson to play in the OF (although Austin Jackson might not be ready). This division is full of teams needing to rebuilt/actually build. Dayton Moore, Royals GM, reminds me of Isiah Thomas. He knows what he wants to do, and he has good intentions. But his execution of his vision is horrendous, and sucking the Royals dry of talent.
AL West
1.) Athletics - Lots of pitching here. Watch out. I frankly don't care that they hit abysmally.
2.) Angels - Mike Sciosia will squeeze 85 wins out of this team. Playing Brandon Wood regularly would help.
3.) Mariners- Got real, real lucky last year. But they didn't really improve their roster over last year.
4.) Rangers- Elvis Andrus has to hit a little more this year. Neftali Perez needs to show he can start. But might not get out of this division's basement, even if they have a winning record.
This is the year's biggest crapshoot. I'd hate to bet against the league's best manager who still has a decent level of talent. The Athletics are sneaky good. Mariners had a great offseason, but lost enough talent that the talent they added is mostly negated. Rangers still need more pitching. Badly.
Wildcard: Rays
NL East
1.) Mets - Probably a lot of bias here, but this is essentially an even better team than the one SI picked to win the World Series last year.
2.) Phillies - Sustained the level of talent from last year. But everything went right for them in 2009. It would really help if Cole Hamels' new breaking pitch is any good.
3.) Braves - Will pitch themselves into third, but can't hit at all.
4.) Marlins - This team can pitch a little, and can hit a little, but neither extremely well.
5.) Nationals - Better than last year, but still the worst team in this division.
This division will come down to the Mets and Phillies again. I just think it's more likely that the Mets don't lose $100 million in payroll than for Raul Ibanez, Jayson Werth, J.A. Happ, and others to play that much over their head again.
NL Central
1.) Cardinals - Pujols/Holliday/Rasmus in one batting order scares me. Scares me enough that I forget about nearly 80% of the roster.
2.) Reds - So much young talent.
3.) Brewers - Some elite talent carrying a lot of otherwise average players.
4.) Cubs - Similar to their Chi-city counterparts, they also need to rebuild, bad.
5.) Astros - Nothing much to say, probably the most uninteresting team in the majors.
6.) Pirates - I've seen Garrett Jones play, he's a AAAA player.
This is a two team race. Reds should hit better than the Cards, but might not have enough pitching to match Dave Duncan's brilliance. Brewers might surprise, but unlikely to take the division.
NL West
1.) Rockies - A full season of non-Clint Hurdle management (although Jim Tracy doesn't exactly set the world on fire).
2.) D-Backs - I'm expecting a bigger year out of Drew, another huge year from Reynolds, and a healthy Webb makes the front of the rotation potentially scary with Haren/Webb/Edwin Jackson.
3.)Dodgers - Torre once again proved he's the most overrated manager in the majors as he pulled his best SP from the rotation at the end of last year.
4.) Giants - an average team, with the best 1-2 SP punch in the NL
5.) Padres - I don't know if I can even name 5 players on this team anymore.
The Rockies are the NL's best team, it's a shame Huston Street and Brad Lidge switched bodies in the playoffs last year. The divorce of the McCourt's is killing the Dodgers, who all of a sudden can't hand out such stupid contracts as Andruw Jone's $18 million a year debacle. The Diamondbacks could contend for the wildcard easily, and if they get anything from Stephen Drew, Chris Young, and Ian Kennedy they could take the division
Wildcard: Reds - The 2nd place finisher in the NL East will just miss first, but as in recent years past, the division will beat up on itself too much to allow its 2nd place finisher to make the playoffs.
AL East
1.) Red Sox - Improved by a few wins by adding some defense to offset the loss of Jason Bay's offense.
2.) Rays - A lot of stats are pointing at the Rays being unlucky in the W-L column last year.
3.) Yankees - Everything went right last year, it's always harder to get the 2nd title in two years.
4.) Orioles - Young core getting better, young pitching finally will reach the Bigs and contribute.
5.) Blue Jays - Not much talent here, although a re-newed commitment to scouting could pay dividends in 5 years.
I was adamant last year when I said the Rays had the most talent in the MLB. And on paper, not much has changed, except instead of Kazmir, they have Wade Davis, David Price has a full year of starting experience in the MLB, and Desmond Jennings and Jeremy Hellickson should be able to contribute this year as well. Oh, and they added a closer, they could easily take first place in this division. The Red Sox are a first class organization that's great at filling holes, they upgraded or provided a suitable replacement everywhere on the diamond this offseason. It's so hard to repeat, and this Yankees team isn't as deep offensively as it was last year, and it also keeps getting older. Realistically, one could make good arguments for putting the Sox, Rays, and Yanks in any order of #1-3, although I think the Rays and Bosox will both definitely finish in first or second.
AL Central
1.) Tigers - Almost won the division last year until blowing it in the last week. But it's hard to say whether this team actually got any better from last year.
2.) Twins - How did this team win the division last year? How?
3.) White Sox - A full year out of Gordon Beckham will help this team out, but it's really time for this team to rebuild drastically.
4.) Indians - Would finish 4th or 5th in any AL division.
5.) Royals - Zack Greinke can't pitch every game, and Billy Butler can't take every AB.
This is the worst division in the MLB, bar none. None of these teams would finish any better than 2nd in any other MLB division. Tigers have the most upside with Verlander/Porcello/Scherzer/Bonderman/Galaragga in the rotation, and adding both Johnny Damon and Austin Jackson to play in the OF (although Austin Jackson might not be ready). This division is full of teams needing to rebuilt/actually build. Dayton Moore, Royals GM, reminds me of Isiah Thomas. He knows what he wants to do, and he has good intentions. But his execution of his vision is horrendous, and sucking the Royals dry of talent.
AL West
1.) Athletics - Lots of pitching here. Watch out. I frankly don't care that they hit abysmally.
2.) Angels - Mike Sciosia will squeeze 85 wins out of this team. Playing Brandon Wood regularly would help.
3.) Mariners- Got real, real lucky last year. But they didn't really improve their roster over last year.
4.) Rangers- Elvis Andrus has to hit a little more this year. Neftali Perez needs to show he can start. But might not get out of this division's basement, even if they have a winning record.
This is the year's biggest crapshoot. I'd hate to bet against the league's best manager who still has a decent level of talent. The Athletics are sneaky good. Mariners had a great offseason, but lost enough talent that the talent they added is mostly negated. Rangers still need more pitching. Badly.
Wildcard: Rays
NL East
1.) Mets - Probably a lot of bias here, but this is essentially an even better team than the one SI picked to win the World Series last year.
2.) Phillies - Sustained the level of talent from last year. But everything went right for them in 2009. It would really help if Cole Hamels' new breaking pitch is any good.
3.) Braves - Will pitch themselves into third, but can't hit at all.
4.) Marlins - This team can pitch a little, and can hit a little, but neither extremely well.
5.) Nationals - Better than last year, but still the worst team in this division.
This division will come down to the Mets and Phillies again. I just think it's more likely that the Mets don't lose $100 million in payroll than for Raul Ibanez, Jayson Werth, J.A. Happ, and others to play that much over their head again.
NL Central
1.) Cardinals - Pujols/Holliday/Rasmus in one batting order scares me. Scares me enough that I forget about nearly 80% of the roster.
2.) Reds - So much young talent.
3.) Brewers - Some elite talent carrying a lot of otherwise average players.
4.) Cubs - Similar to their Chi-city counterparts, they also need to rebuild, bad.
5.) Astros - Nothing much to say, probably the most uninteresting team in the majors.
6.) Pirates - I've seen Garrett Jones play, he's a AAAA player.
This is a two team race. Reds should hit better than the Cards, but might not have enough pitching to match Dave Duncan's brilliance. Brewers might surprise, but unlikely to take the division.
NL West
1.) Rockies - A full season of non-Clint Hurdle management (although Jim Tracy doesn't exactly set the world on fire).
2.) D-Backs - I'm expecting a bigger year out of Drew, another huge year from Reynolds, and a healthy Webb makes the front of the rotation potentially scary with Haren/Webb/Edwin Jackson.
3.)Dodgers - Torre once again proved he's the most overrated manager in the majors as he pulled his best SP from the rotation at the end of last year.
4.) Giants - an average team, with the best 1-2 SP punch in the NL
5.) Padres - I don't know if I can even name 5 players on this team anymore.
The Rockies are the NL's best team, it's a shame Huston Street and Brad Lidge switched bodies in the playoffs last year. The divorce of the McCourt's is killing the Dodgers, who all of a sudden can't hand out such stupid contracts as Andruw Jone's $18 million a year debacle. The Diamondbacks could contend for the wildcard easily, and if they get anything from Stephen Drew, Chris Young, and Ian Kennedy they could take the division
Wildcard: Reds - The 2nd place finisher in the NL East will just miss first, but as in recent years past, the division will beat up on itself too much to allow its 2nd place finisher to make the playoffs.
Saturday, January 23, 2010
Thoughts on Recapping the Off-season
First, I must say this is one of the more disappointing off-seasons in recent memory. There was absolutely nothing extremely surprising that happened. Normally at least one team makes a big splash that shakes up how everyone approaches the coming year. Hasn't happened. No one really has made dramatic improvements, most teams did nothing much or just enough to stay at the same level they were last year.
As signings start to dwindle down and the trade market slows as well, and the arbitration period coming to a close, it's time to recap a little of how this postseason has went. All these rankings are tentative to chagne based on what happens in the rest of the off-season.
Offseason Winners:
1.) Yankees
2.) Red Sox
3.) Mariners
The Yankees stayed on the same talent level, and got younger. No super risky changes, kept the core of the team intact. Now, if they were only smart enough to trade Joba in a deal for Halladay...The Red Sox made little improvements all over the field, but they might be winners if only because they didn't lose as much as they could've. Lackey definitely boosts the rotation, giving them at least one reliable arm behind Lester and Beckett, but the only hitter in that lineup that scares any team is Victor Martinez....Seattle takes the third spot for locking up Felix, acquiring Cliff Lee for Phillipe Aumonte, and adequately replacing Adrian Beltre with Chone Figgins.
Offseason Losers:
1.) Phillies
2.) Cubs
3.) Dodgers
The Phillies are the big losers for A.) replacing Pedro Feliz with Polanco, B.) replacing Lee with Halladay at the cost of the rest of their farm, and C.) using money they could've used on Cliff Lee to pay Joe Blanton. The Cubs for failing to improve, paying too much for a LOOGY who isn't much of a LOOGY and everything involved with Milton Bradley. The Dodgers are big losers as they did nothing, and their payroll has dropped $40 million in the last 2 years.
Wildcard: Mets
The Mets missed on on Piniero and Molina, which some would say is a good thing, and still have money to spend. If they can grab John Smoltz for the back of the rotation, and could also sign Ben Sheets, and pick up Rod Barajas or Yorvit Torrealba for half the cost of Molina, who's at best slightly better than those two. Basically, the Mets have options, and some money to spend, and if they find a taker for Luis Castillo, who has some value,they could also grab Orlando Hudson. If everything else falls into place for them, they could easily vault to number one on the winners list with additions of at least one of those two catchers, one of those two catchers (or Erik Bedard?) and another arm, preferably for the bullpen to replace Brian Stokes. Highly possible and feasable situation
Best off-season acquisition: Curtis Granderson. Now Yankee fans can finally stop pretending Melky Cabrera is good.
Worst off-season acquisition: Joel Piniero. He was bad in the AL West before, what makes this time any different? Except that the Angels' park isn't as good for pitchers as Safeco.
Most puzzling off-season acquisition: Bengie Molina. This is actually a retention, but he was a type B free agent, and they have both Pablo Sandoval and Buster Posey, the best catching prospect remaining after Wieters was called up last summer.
Biggest catastrophe avoided: Atlanta Braves potentially having the most expensive bullpen in history.
Best Free agent still available: John Smoltz. He should land somewhere and give someone some solid innings. Sheets is a little less dependable in that area.
Smartest move: The Yankees making Johnny Damon wait. It's clear everyone thinks his power resurgence is all from Yankee Stadium. He came into the off-season looking for 3 years/$30 million even though he's in his mid-thirties. Scott Boras dropped the ball on this one. Looks like he'll head back to the Yankees next year for Bobby Abreu money last year.
As signings start to dwindle down and the trade market slows as well, and the arbitration period coming to a close, it's time to recap a little of how this postseason has went. All these rankings are tentative to chagne based on what happens in the rest of the off-season.
Offseason Winners:
1.) Yankees
2.) Red Sox
3.) Mariners
The Yankees stayed on the same talent level, and got younger. No super risky changes, kept the core of the team intact. Now, if they were only smart enough to trade Joba in a deal for Halladay...The Red Sox made little improvements all over the field, but they might be winners if only because they didn't lose as much as they could've. Lackey definitely boosts the rotation, giving them at least one reliable arm behind Lester and Beckett, but the only hitter in that lineup that scares any team is Victor Martinez....Seattle takes the third spot for locking up Felix, acquiring Cliff Lee for Phillipe Aumonte, and adequately replacing Adrian Beltre with Chone Figgins.
Offseason Losers:
1.) Phillies
2.) Cubs
3.) Dodgers
The Phillies are the big losers for A.) replacing Pedro Feliz with Polanco, B.) replacing Lee with Halladay at the cost of the rest of their farm, and C.) using money they could've used on Cliff Lee to pay Joe Blanton. The Cubs for failing to improve, paying too much for a LOOGY who isn't much of a LOOGY and everything involved with Milton Bradley. The Dodgers are big losers as they did nothing, and their payroll has dropped $40 million in the last 2 years.
Wildcard: Mets
The Mets missed on on Piniero and Molina, which some would say is a good thing, and still have money to spend. If they can grab John Smoltz for the back of the rotation, and could also sign Ben Sheets, and pick up Rod Barajas or Yorvit Torrealba for half the cost of Molina, who's at best slightly better than those two. Basically, the Mets have options, and some money to spend, and if they find a taker for Luis Castillo, who has some value,they could also grab Orlando Hudson. If everything else falls into place for them, they could easily vault to number one on the winners list with additions of at least one of those two catchers, one of those two catchers (or Erik Bedard?) and another arm, preferably for the bullpen to replace Brian Stokes. Highly possible and feasable situation
Best off-season acquisition: Curtis Granderson. Now Yankee fans can finally stop pretending Melky Cabrera is good.
Worst off-season acquisition: Joel Piniero. He was bad in the AL West before, what makes this time any different? Except that the Angels' park isn't as good for pitchers as Safeco.
Most puzzling off-season acquisition: Bengie Molina. This is actually a retention, but he was a type B free agent, and they have both Pablo Sandoval and Buster Posey, the best catching prospect remaining after Wieters was called up last summer.
Biggest catastrophe avoided: Atlanta Braves potentially having the most expensive bullpen in history.
Best Free agent still available: John Smoltz. He should land somewhere and give someone some solid innings. Sheets is a little less dependable in that area.
Smartest move: The Yankees making Johnny Damon wait. It's clear everyone thinks his power resurgence is all from Yankee Stadium. He came into the off-season looking for 3 years/$30 million even though he's in his mid-thirties. Scott Boras dropped the ball on this one. Looks like he'll head back to the Yankees next year for Bobby Abreu money last year.
Wednesday, January 13, 2010
Thoughts on Mark McGwire
Anyone who's ever read anything I've written, or have heard any of my ranting diatribes on Mark McGwire knows I have a pretty clear stance on him. He's the ultimate product of the generation. Someone who tried to use steroids to prolong a career that shouldn't have been sustainable. Did he legitimately have that sort of power? Yeah, probably, he did hit for a rookie record of 49 homers after all. But he needed steroids to sustain it.
Also, it's unfair to pick on him because he was the greatest power hitter of the 90's. We don't know for sure everyone who did and who didn't, so to put all this blame on McGwire is a witch hunt. Yankee fans are offended he broke Maris' record. Purists hate the steroids, but most fans honestly don't seem to care, especially if they tend to like the player. The public only really seems to be angry at those who have made a mockery of this whole mess (Jose Canseco, Rodriguez, Clemens, Palmeiro).
Someone from the steroids era is going to get into teh Hall of Fame, and that'll mean everyone else will have to give in. Make Mark McGwire the first, Palmeiro the next and Sosa later. And honestly, someone who cheated and wasn't caught will get in and "taint" the Hall of Fame, so let them all in.
Also, it's unfair to pick on him because he was the greatest power hitter of the 90's. We don't know for sure everyone who did and who didn't, so to put all this blame on McGwire is a witch hunt. Yankee fans are offended he broke Maris' record. Purists hate the steroids, but most fans honestly don't seem to care, especially if they tend to like the player. The public only really seems to be angry at those who have made a mockery of this whole mess (Jose Canseco, Rodriguez, Clemens, Palmeiro).
Someone from the steroids era is going to get into teh Hall of Fame, and that'll mean everyone else will have to give in. Make Mark McGwire the first, Palmeiro the next and Sosa later. And honestly, someone who cheated and wasn't caught will get in and "taint" the Hall of Fame, so let them all in.
Saturday, January 9, 2010
Thoughts on Matt Holliday
In what seemed like an inevitability after Jason Bay landed with the Mets, Matt Holliday recently signed a 7 year, $120 million deal with the Cardinals.
This is pretty simple, St. Louis is a great baseball town, with a manager players love to play for, and a great pitching coach to boot. It's probably the best baseball city in the world. Matt Holliday played well there, and him hitting next to Pujols is scary. Also, this signing is extra incentive for Pujols to stick around.
Only question marks include: why didn't anyone else really get in on the bidding? Did they sense he never wanted to leave, and just wanted to use free agency as a tool to get a huge deal out of St. Louis? Is $16-$17 million a year over 7 years smart considering they seemed to be bidding against themselves? If Holliday's fielding is as bad as some say, is he really worth that kind of cash?
Honestly, I think not trying to get him at a lower price is smart, if they had let these negotiations continue much longer, some one else surely would have stepped in and caused competition for St. Louis.
This is pretty simple, St. Louis is a great baseball town, with a manager players love to play for, and a great pitching coach to boot. It's probably the best baseball city in the world. Matt Holliday played well there, and him hitting next to Pujols is scary. Also, this signing is extra incentive for Pujols to stick around.
Only question marks include: why didn't anyone else really get in on the bidding? Did they sense he never wanted to leave, and just wanted to use free agency as a tool to get a huge deal out of St. Louis? Is $16-$17 million a year over 7 years smart considering they seemed to be bidding against themselves? If Holliday's fielding is as bad as some say, is he really worth that kind of cash?
Honestly, I think not trying to get him at a lower price is smart, if they had let these negotiations continue much longer, some one else surely would have stepped in and caused competition for St. Louis.
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