Thoughts on Jason Bay to the Mets

The Mets nabbed their prime Leftfield target this offseason, Jason Bay, for what seems like a reasonable price (around $16 million a year for four years, plus a vesting option for a fifth year).

Positives in this deal: Mets needed a power hitting outfielder, Jason Bay is a .520 career slugger. The Mets didn't overpay really, and Jason Bay's played in a big market so New York shouldn't phase him. He's averaged 154 games played over the last 5 seasons, and the Mets badly needed a player who would stay healthy.

Negatives: Mets didn't have much competition, so did they really need to include this 5th year vesting option that supposedly vests easily? Did they bid against themselves again? He's already 31, so he will be 35 or 36 when this deal ends. He's a poor fielder, and the outfield in Citifield's huge. Matt Holliday would have cost around $10 million more, and would probably be a better value.

Final Thought: Hard to argue against an outfielder with a .900 career OPS. And the Mets with a plus defender in Rightfield (Francoeur and/or Fernando Martinez) and the best centerfielder in the game should be able to overcome his shortcomings in left. And maybe some of his homers in Citifield turn back into doubles, but worse things have happened.

Thoughts on Trading with the Evil Empire

Often people complain about how the Yankees never stop getting better. Certainly, the $200 million payroll helps. And attracting players with the promise of winning, money, and tradition is no difficult task. The Yankees strive for excellence unlike any team in sports. They exist in a time where they can't just buy a bunch of players and expect them to fit together and win (remember the years of a rotation featuring Carl Pavano, Jaret Wright, Kevin Brown, as well as the oldest and slowest lineup in the majors?).

But they've gotten smarter, and better, and have a new commitment to winning. The Yankees capped off a World Series win by trying to get both younger and better. They've added Curtis Granderson and Javier Vasquez, replacing the departed Johnny Damon and Hideki Matsui.

Now are these moves perfect? No. Curtis Granderson certainly has his drawbacks as a hitter, and Javier Vasquez is possibly one of the most maddeningly inconsistent pitchers maybe ever. But if they work perfectly, it can be expected that the Yankees might be ever better in 2010.

But when a pitcher with a sub 3 ERA and a high K rate is traded for a defense-first centerfielder who isn't even that talented of a defender, no one has any right to complain. Teams aren't even figuratively handing the Yankees wins when they do things like this, they are now literally doing it! Javier Vasquez had much more value than Melky Cabrera, no matter how one looks at it (the prospect dealt along with Melky Cabrera is supposedly nothing special either).

If teams want to stop the Yankees, block their moves, offer more money, be more aggressive. The offseason is a game of simple competitive economics, and it's time everyone started playing it.

Oh, and if anyone things the Yankees are starting next year with Brett Gardner as their starting leftfielder, they are sadly mistaken. The Yankees aren't done yet.

Thoughts on Jason Marquis Signing with the Nats

In a surprise move, Jason Marquis has decided to accept a two year deal with the Washington Nationals for $7.5 million a year. He apparently likes the idea of mentoring a young staff including Jordan Zimmerman and Stephen Strasburg.

I was convinced (as nearly everyone else was) that he was headed to the Mets. But the Mets dragging their feet the whole offseason has grown a tired act, and Marquis wasn't interested in waiting and took some money.

Good move for the Nationals, this is the best they're going to do in free agency this year.

The Mets missed out on an average pitcher. There's still some left, and probably aren't as expensive. (Really, they should just sign Ben Sheets and Erik Bedard, Pedro Martinez, assuming they combine for about 250 IP, they're all pretty cheap and there's no one on the market worth signing long term).

Thoughts on Milton Bradley

In a bad contract swap. The Mariners took Milton Bradley in exchange for the nightmare contract of Carlos Silva.

This makes tons of sense for the Mariners. They added a DH who can play left field on occasion. They got rid of the remaining of the worst contract in Seattle history.

Only drawback is that this DH's name is Milton Bradley, a man who ran himself out of town. Will he be a good guy like he was in Texas? Or a train wreck like in Chicago?

This makes very little sense for the Cubs, except they got rid of Bradley. Silva is a terrible pitcher in any league.

There is no winner for either team. But the Mariners may potentially pull out well, assuming he can be happy for 2 years in Seattle. The Cubs are more than happy to dump him, it'd be a PR disaster if they didn't.

Thoughts on Lackey and Halladay

John Lackey is headed to Boston Red Sox for a deal slightly larger than A.J. Burnett's last season. When Jason Bay started to look like he wasn't coming back, they had money to spend. After missing out on Teixeira last year, and now Bay, they have some free cash. This signing may or may not prohibit them from pursuing Matt Holliday.

Roy Halladay was traded to the Phillies, and the trade also pushes Cliff Lee to the Mariners. The Phillies also trade away two of their top three prospects (Kyle Drabek and Michael Taylor), as well as one of their other better ones, to the Phillies, and receive the hard throwing Phillipe Aumont from Seattle.

Does this make the Phillies a better team? Slightly. Halladay is a slightly better pitcher than Lee, and they are going to sign him to a smaller extension than Lee will demand. Halladay is a year older, so that's a slight loss, but the guarantee that they will have Halladay beyond this season is a huge gain for them.

But Michael Taylor and Kyke Drabek are a pretty steep cost. And while Halladay won't want a contract comparable to what he'd get as a free agent after this season, his discounted contract will probably end up around the contract that Cliff Lee would have demanded. So this relative money savings comes at the cost of Michael Taylor, which isn't that great of a price for the Phillies.

And Phillipe Aumont plus some unknown strong, but note elite prospects is a pretty good price for Cliff Lee, or at least comparable to what the Phillies paid for him last July. So the Mariners get a win for him, and they probably have money to sign him for an extension if they so choose. Did the Blue Jays get a fair return for Halladay? Yeah. The Phillies made a bold move here, and have successfully traded 6 of their top 7 prospects since July.

Now this leaves one to wonder, why didn't the Phillies make a similar deal to this back in July? Wouldn't a rotation led by Halladay virtually guarantee them a World Series?

To me, Aumont is the best prospect moved in this deal. I remember seeing him pitch at the World Baseball Classic, and was wowed by how good he was. I like him more than Drabek (although I'm probably in the minority here).

However, a once overrated top-heavy farm system is in danger of being near barren. They have two blue-chippers, and no depth. And the worry about Aumont is that he might be a reliever and not a starter, in which case, his value is a lot lower. On the other hand, he can close instead of Lidge if Lidge falters again.

Thoughts on Peter Gammons

Back when I was in high school, I admired and revered Peter Gammons. He was my hero. I wanted to be him. Long given up my professional baseball dreams, I merely wanted to learn as much as I could about the game, to be the smartest source of baseball knowledge there was, and to be able to put it into text eloquently.

So I listened and read with the utmost attention to everything he wrote and said. I researched him, I even applied to wear he went to college (UNC), figuring that whatever school he went to must be great to turn out a talent such as he.

Well now I'm not studying journalism, let alone sports journalism. All I have is this ill-read baseball blog mostly for my own use, and not much else. But my dee p respect for Peter Gammons remains undaunted. There was never a better baseball analyst/reporter, and he's largely credited for revolutionizing the field of baseball journalism.

He never blurred the lines between reporting and color commentary, as too many baseball journalist do today, but was able to talk eloquently on both fronts. He was notoriously a gentleman, a man liked by executives, players, and reporters alike.

I'm a good writer, but not a great one. And it's not like I know Gammons personally. So it's hard to convey how someone who doesn't know I exist means so much me. I wish I could write a column like the one Buster Olney wrote below:

http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?entryID=4733669&name=olney_buster&action=upsell&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fespn%2fblog%2findex%3fentryID%3d4733669%26name%3dolney_buster

No, he's not leaving the game entirely, but the fact is that it will take quite the individual to fill his shoes, and right not, baseball feels a little empty without his ubiquitous words.

Thoughts on Rafael Soriano

As predicted, the Braves couldn't really afford Rafael Soriano after signing Wagner and Saito, so they had to trade one. Right now, it looks like he's headed to Tampa Bay, probably to close. The Braves were really hoping to grab draft pick compensation from Rafael Soriano signing with someone else. However, they could have done worse, as they most likely get Jesse Chavez in return. This is really a win-win trade. The Braves were able to shed the money, and pick up a decent arm in return, the Rays grab a potential closer for a reasonable salary without having to forfeit a draft pick to his former team.

Thoughts on Correcting the Blog from Last Night

I said Latroy Hawkins was headed to Houston. Well my source was wrong, he's headed to Milwaukee where he won't close (Trevor Hoffman is continuing his Hall of Fame stats there). Much better move on both sides.

Instead, Matt Lindstrom was traded to the Astros where he'll probably close. While he had a high ERA last year, as a closer, he didn't blow many saves, showing the grit to be a closer. This could be a good fit for him.

Thoughts on Winter Meetings Thusfar

Ok, so a bunch of stuff for me to talk about today.

First, in a less-serious thought, C.J. Wilson twittered that he was offended that the Dbacks would even offer Chris Snyder for him. C.J. Wilson obviously didn't realize that Chris Snyder has a lot of value because he hit well (for a catcher) two years ago, and most people are marking up last years problems to injuries. Wilson also must think a lot of himself, it's not as if he's even a tier 2 reliever.

Second, in what's the most tragic move of the day, the Yankees are set to acquire Curtis Granderson in a 3 way deal between the Yanks, the D-Backs and Tigers. This makes the Yankees even more of a likable team. I don't know what world other baseball fans grew up in, but I grew up in a baseball world where the Yankees played as if they were from a military squad: without emotion, without guts, and without character. They always seemed more a group of individuals rather than a team. But the addition of yet another character guy, this Yankees team gets even scarier. Make no mistake, Curtis Granderson is a good, not great player, but he bats leftie and can give them a Melky Cabrera like glove with a bat to replace Damon.

This trade makes sense for the Yankees, they are in a win now move, Austin Jackson isn't quite ready yet, and Ian Kennedy needs to figure a few things out. Neither player will be missed much. For the D-backs, this is slightly confusing. Yes, Edwin Jackson has proven to be a good pitcher, but right now, Scherzer isn't that much worse. And Scherzer has two or three more years of team control over him than Jackson. For the Tigers, this makes sense. They got a great young starter, a great outfield prospect, and a few other average players with plenty of team control, all while shedding payroll.

In other news, Latroy Hawkins is looking like the next closer for the Astros. Hawkins? Closer? Hasn't he proven 10894712 times over that he is incapable of being a full-time closer?

Brad Penny is going to sign a one year deal with Cardinals for too much money. If he pitches 204 innings, he gets $9 million, and $7.5 if they don't. Again, too much money for a guy who didn't pitch well last year.

Lot's of other stuff I could talk about, but I'm not going to waste time on every speculated rumor this year.

And twitter overload much baseball writers?

Braves sign Saito

Atlanta Braves just made another splash on the free agent market, signing Takashi Saito to a one year contract.

This is a low-cost, low risk signing for the Atlanta Braves, who've now successfully replaced both Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano in their bullpen. The only really problem they run at this point is if both Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano accept arbitration. Yes the bullpen would be good, but it'd cost them over $20 million to employ all 4.

In all reality though, the chances of one of those two, let alone both, returns is very low.

Thoughts on Polanco and Wagner signings

The Atlanta Braves immediately addressed one of their pertinent needs this offseason as they signed probable future Hall-of-Fame closer Billy Wagner to a one year deal at a fairly reasonable price.

Any way you look at it, the Braves put themselves in a good situation this offseason. They offered both Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez arbitration, meaning even if they sign elsewhere, they will receive draft picks compensating those they lost signing Billy Wagner. If they accept arbitration, they have a great back of the bullpen featuring 3 guys who can close games.

And today, the Phillies signed a familiar face, Placido Polanco, once traded to them for Scott Rolen. Realistically, they traded stronger defense for a marginal offensive upgrade, at a price that ties them up for 3 years with a 34 year old third baseman. They must have decided players such as Mark DeRosa and Adrian Beltre were too expensive. But they didn't even sign Polanco to that cheap of a contract. The only real advantage to signing Polanco is that they didn't have to forfeit a draft pick.

Thoughts on Annual Awards

I could write a 1000 word essay on how bad the Gold Gloves are. On average, about 3 choices per league are correct or strongly, strongly defensible. But otherwise, the awards this year were pretty on the money, but it's not as if they were particularly contentious races either.

Alber Pujols and Joe Mauer each won MVP's by near unanimous margins. Rightfully so.

Zack Greinke won the AL Cy Young after being nearly unhittable. Perfect choice.

Tim Lincecum won the NL Cy Young and deserv....errrr....what? Poor Adam Wainwright got shafted. That makes two Cy Youngs Lincecum's won that he hasn't deserved. Lucky man, BBWAA seems to want to help make him real rich.

Still 3 out of the 4 major awards ain't bad, although admittedly they screwed up the only real difficult choice.